ARTzeman
16 September 2020 05:31:41
Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already.

Our thoughts will be with you.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 September 2020 09:25:33
It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time.

All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!"


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Saint Snow
16 September 2020 09:31:34

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

 

My guess is 90% went for below 15c

 

 

You win. 

Excellent! 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
16 September 2020 09:33:00

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

UserPostedImage

Table

 

Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ally Pally Snowman
16 September 2020 10:00:38

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

 

You win. 

Excellent! 

 

Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
16 September 2020 10:05:52

Met Office Hadley        15.5c        Anomaly        1.4c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     15.36c      Anomaly         1.64c

Netweather                  15.79c      Anomaly         2.1c

Peasedown St John     14.72c      Anomaly       2.19c.           




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

mulattokid
16 September 2020 11:03:44

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

UserPostedImage

Table

Sending best wishes.

Saint Snow
16 September 2020 11:09:15

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.

 

Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
17 September 2020 09:54:25

Met Office Hadley            15.6c         Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly      1.62c

Netweather                      15.9c         Anomaly      2.21c

Peasedown St John       14.96c        Anomaly       2.43c   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
17 September 2020 20:39:30

Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!

The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.

The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.

 

Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

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2021's Homeland Extremes:

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Keep Calm and Forecast On

ARTzeman
18 September 2020 09:58:43

Met Office Hadley         15.6c       Anomaly        1.6c

Metcheck                      15.23c     Anomaly         1.57c

Netweather                   15.85c     Anomaly         2.16c

Peasedown St John      14.84c    Anomaly         2.31c.            




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
18 September 2020 12:29:17

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!

The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.

The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.

 

Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.

 

Oh, FFS


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
18 September 2020 13:55:12

If the impending cooler spell does drag the CET down into the low-14's it'll be the 3rd or 4th time this year alone where a big change late in the month (that was unforeseen) has stopped me doing better, and allowing others to salvage what would/should have been a bad month for them.

I know the CET comp is only a bit of fun, but it's a bit frustrating. I don't mind being way out when I've totally misread it, but to guess the general pattern right (coolish, warming, warm, cooler) and seem to be on the money halfway through the month, only to be undone by some extreme at the end is annoying.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
19 September 2020 09:50:03

Met Office Hadley           15.5c        Anomaly       1.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                        15.18c      Anomaly       1.46c

Netweather                      15.76c     Anomaly       2.07c

Peasedown St John       14.9c        Anomaly        2.37c.    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
20 September 2020 09:53:02

Met Office Hadley  No change    15.5c        Anomaly      1.5c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck               No change    15.18c      Anomaly      1.46c

Netweather            N0 change    15.76c      Anomaly     2.07c

Peasedown St John                  14.91c      Anomaly     2.38c




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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