This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during August, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for September should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. Deadline is extended to 23:59 on 2 September.
Historic CET summary for September
1971-2000 13.7C (30 years)
1981-2010 14.0C (30 years)
2000-2019 14.1C (last 20 years)
The warmest September in recent times was 16.8C in 2006, the warmest of record. We also saw 16.0C ini 2016. There have also been a number of Septembers in the mid to high 13's (2007, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2018. Coldest September in recent times was 12.7C in 2015.
Although we think of September as having been a good month more often than not recently, in fact the September CET has only been at or above 14C in 5 of the last 13 years.
Here is a chart of the September CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to larger version of the chart
Current model output
GFS 850s looking mixed. Some warmer spells but often close to or slightly below average. Temperatures struggling to reach 20C in London.
GFS 850 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM looks cool for the first week of September but potentially for something warmer in the second week.
ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Autumn as a whole looking to be above average, based on probabilities.
September though does not look that warm. Most of the data points for September are at or below 14C. So looks like the probabilities are favouring a slightly cooler than average month.
Edited by moderator
01 November 2020 10:33:24
| Reason: Not specified