I posted this in the model output but appears lost!?

I have re-posted this here and I think this deserves a discussion as we heading into late summer now and the QBO with is phase (Easterly or Westerly) can be a big driver as to whether or not we have a more colder and blocked winter with an increase in the chances of a SSW - like the easterly QBO winter of 2017/18. Early winter there as a lot of cold zonality and gradually the winter got colder which of course lead to A SSW and of course the beast from the east end of February and into March 2018.

The QBO looks strange and very complicated right now. confused.com or what? 

Does anyone think this easterly QBO will fail? - Last time we had the failure of the Easterly QBO was in 2016!?

Would like to know your thoughts? https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/Singapore_u.png

 

 

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If you have been watching Gavin P.'s Sunday Roundup videos every week, you will seen that this is something which crops up quite a lot there. Whether the Easterly QBO fails or not is a huge issue, and I wouldn't like to say which way that is likely to go.

I hope that it doesn't fail though because an easterly QBO is one important factor which would be in favour of us getting a cold winter if that is what happens, although this doesn't actually guarantee that of course. Without that, The last failure of an easterly QBO was in 2015/16 but then, there was a strong El Nino in the ENSO region at the time which may or may not have caused that to happen, or at least played quite a big part in that.

This time though, that isn't an issue as the ENSO situation has gone in the opposite direction towards a weak La Nina, so any failure of the easterly QBO is going to be very concerning from a global perspective if that ends up happening.

I believe that as long as La Nina doesn't get too strong, there is still a chance of a cold winter, especially as we may well be starting to come out of solar minimum and into solar cycle number 25 by the time that next winter comes up, although I have a feeling that abnormally warm waters in the NE Pacific Ocean might put paid to that once again, as it always does.

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If you have been watching Gavin P.'s Sunday Roundup videos every week, you will seen that this is something which crops up quite a lot there. Whether the Easterly QBO fails or not is a huge issue, and I wouldn't like to say which way that is likely to go.

I hope that it doesn't fail though because an easterly QBO is one important factor which would be in favour of us getting a cold winter if that is what happens, although this doesn't actually guarantee that of course. Without that, The last failure of an easterly QBO was in 2015/16 but then, there was a strong El Nino in the ENSO region at the time which may or may not have caused that to happen, or at least played quite a big part in that.

This time though, that isn't an issue as the ENSO situation has gone in the opposite direction towards a weak La Nina, so any failure of the easterly QBO is going to be very concerning from a global perspective if that ends up happening.

I believe that as long as La Nina doesn't get too strong, there is still a chance of a cold winter, especially as we may well be starting to come out of solar minimum and into solar cycle number 25 by the time that next winter comes up, although I have a feeling that abnormally warm waters in the NE Pacific Ocean might put paid to that once again, as it always does.

 

Thanks John - I too have been following gavsweathervideos as well. Fingers crossed the easterly QBO doesn't fail then.

I note this topic isn't so popular? - However I find the QBO very interesting. It's uncertainty remains a mystery and will cause turmoil in model outputs and anyone delivering long range weather forecasts esp as we head ever closer towards Autumn months and - if we are still in 'limbo land' with the QBO by the time we reach October or November - then it will cause headaches for anyone issuing longer range winter/seasonal forecasts surely??

So - I am surprise there isn't more discussion on this topic.

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Thanks John - I too have been following gavsweathervideos as well. Fingers crossed the easterly QBO doesn't fail then.

I note this topic isn't so popular? - However I find the QBO very interesting. It's uncertainty remains a mystery and will cause turmoil in model outputs and anyone delivering long range weather forecasts esp as we head ever closer towards Autumn months and - if we are still in 'limbo land' with the QBO by the time we reach October or November - then it will cause headaches for anyone issuing longer range winter/seasonal forecasts surely??

So - I am surprise there isn't more discussion on this topic.

Don't forget as well, that the above mentioned Gavin P. is also a member of this forum, so I'm surprised to see that he hasn't had anything to say on this issue here. I have noticed though, that this forum has dwindled a bit in terms of overall participation in recent years.

That of course, has nothing to do with this being a bad forum in any way (I think that it is actually a really good forum in fact), but is probably more to to do with the fact that it is at the very bottom of Brian's list of priorities from a business perspective when it comes to overall running of this site (which consists of not just the forum, but also the various other pages and data which are contained within it).

The result of this is there is probably now likely to less interest in certain subjects on this forum than what there was a number of years ago, and where you might expect there to at least be some interest in that.

If you went to another forum such as Netweather, you might get more of a response as that seems to be a bigger forum (at the moment) which includes within its various members, top forecasters such as Jo Farrow and the legendary Michael Fish. However, I have also heard some bad things about so if you are sensitive and easily offended by whatever replies you get in response to your posts, you might want to avoid that one altogether.

If you have a Google account though which can be used as a GMail account for emails, or for signing into other Google services such as YouTube, you might want to post a comment on a page with one of Gavin P.'s videos, or whilst in the process of watching one of his live streams. That is something which he will almost certainly reply to himself, and I have found that he has been very good when it comes to that (not just that has resulted in me being mentioned in a few of his live streams as a result).

 

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^^^^

Thanks for the lovely comments both! 

I have been aware of this thread but have been VERY busy over the past couple of days and didn't have time to comment.

Overall though there's not really much that I can add to the conversation I'm afraid.

I don't really know what's going on with the QBO and I don't know what's going to happen this winter I'm afraid so I'm as much in the dark as anyone about what's happening with the QBO at the moment.

I can tell you that tomorrow's autumn update is a QBO special and it's looking at autumns that have both a developing easterly and westerly QBO - so that shows that I really have no idea where the QBO is going.

All we can do is wait it out and see what happens.

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The QBO is indeed all over the place at the moment. The normal reliable phasing of the QBO seems to be breaking down to some extent. Back in 2016 the easterly QBO failed completely. This time it hasn't failed as the charts above show. But it has failed to get down to the critical 30hPa level. The westerlies now seem to be building again at 30hPa but too early to say what happens next. 

There is some really interesting data and graphs at the site tally linked in the initial post. It includes a daily QBO graph for Singapore at the top.

Yesterday this showed quite a strong westerly QBO at 30hPa but an easterly component around 15hPa with a neutral position at 10hPa.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#singau

About a third of the way down the page is a circular graph showing EOF (empirical orthogonal functions). No idea what this means (maybe James - Stormchaser does). But what it does show is the QBO plot for 2020 (the red line) is doing something never seen before since 1979. Both 2018 and 2019 were fairly typical years but since April particularly the QBO has really gone off on one. 

So I would suggest that at the moment the QBO probably has absolutely ZERO predictability value. It will interesting to see what it does in the coming months but I don't see how we can sensibly use it to make any sort of input into forecasts at the moment given it is doing something that we have not seen before.

If the westerly QBO does reestablish itself in the next few months then that would be indicative of increasing the likelihood of a more zonal winter.

Today, Gav's autumn update is a QBO special - shared link below:

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What phase was the QBO in during the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2017/18. all of which saw notable cold spells in the UK at some point in the season?

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What phase was the QBO in during the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2017/18. all of which saw notable cold spells in the UK at some point in the season?

2009/10 - easterly which continued to build into Spring 2010

2010/11 - westerly

2012/13 - declining easterly

2017/18 - easterly which continued to build into Spring 2018

The QBO is of course only one of many factors which influences the winter pattern in the UK.

Does anyone else know how to read this data - as it's changing every day? Positive is westerly right??? - Hence we're in a westerly QBO?

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Does anyone else know how to read this data - as it's changing every day? Positive is westerly right??? - Hence we're in a westerly QBO?

The blue trend is going more negative /changing each time I refresh F5 the page on the QBO...!? Does anyone know how to read this above!? 

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Tally - the vertical axis represents the stratosphere. The higher up the line the higher up in the stratosphere you are. The horizontal axis represents the zonal wind. Negative numbers on the left are the easterly QBO and positive numbers on the right are westerly QBO. 

For our purposes the key data point is 30hPa. At the moment the blue line is to the right of the graph at 30hPa so we are in the westerly QBO hence why the narrative refers to westerly. It is quite normal for the QBO to be in different states at different heights in the stratosphere.

Tally - the vertical axis represents the stratosphere. The higher up the line the higher up in the stratosphere you are. The horizontal axis represents the zonal wind. Negative numbers on the left are the easterly QBO and positive numbers on the right are westerly QBO. 

For our purposes the key data point is 30hPa. At the moment the blue line is to the right of the graph at 30hPa so we are in the westerly QBO hence why the narrative refers to westerly. It is quite normal for the QBO to be in different states at different heights in the stratosphere.

Thank you GW - MAKES A little more sense now as I couldn't see the months and dates etc.. so found it confusing.

So it's measured at 30hpa? - If so I see at 30hpa we are in a westerly QBO yet higher up and lower down there is a little bit of an easterly QBO - so a real mix bag and very complicated picture. I assume despite bits of easterly QBO lower down and higher up as long as the QBO shows westerly or easterly at 30hpa regardless of what it shows elsewhere if different the QBO state at 30hpa is what will be determined and where the phases of the QBO is measured?!

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That is correct

I am being very pedantic but - potential signs of easterly developing just on the edge between 20 and 10hpa darker blues appearing? 

 

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I've heard that last year's SSW event over the South Pole (since we are now coming towards the end of the Southern Hemisphere winter, this is the time of year when we would be most likely to see these events occurring in that part of the world) may have played a major part in disrupting the QBO in terms of preventing the easterly QBO from being able to power up as expected.

First of all, that is something which would be mostly expected to affect the Southern Hemisphere, so it would seem weird for that to be able to affect anything on our side of the Equator as well.

Secondly, I am talking about a SSW event which happened a whole year ago, so you would have expected any impacts from that, to have worn away by now.

Does anyone here think that there might have been some truth in that, though?

 

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I've heard that last year's SSW event over the South Pole (since we are now coming towards the end of the Southern Hemisphere winter, this is the time of year when we would be most likely to see these events occurring in that part of the world) may have played a major part in disrupting the QBO in terms of preventing the easterly QBO from being able to power up as expected.

First of all, that is something which would be mostly expected to affect the Southern Hemisphere, so it would seem weird for that to be able to affect anything on our side of the Equator as well.

Secondly, I am talking about a SSW event which happened a whole year ago, so you would have expected any impacts from that, to have worn away by now.

Does anyone here think that there might have been some truth in that, though?

 

Yes forgot about that also the warm SST's in the Indian ocean could have also been the explanation as to why we had the polar vortex of doom throughout the whole of winter 2019/20!?

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Latst EC Seasonal update for Dec/Jan/Feb is unusual. It develops a large area of high pressure, for the 3 months, over much of the UK and NW Europe. A blocked pattern, but not 'true' northern blocking. Despite this, precip is near avg and temps near or slightly above. #caution

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) August 12, 2020

Latst EC Seasonal update for Dec/Jan/Feb is unusual. It develops a large area of high pressure, for the 3 months, over much of the UK and NW Europe. A blocked pattern, but not 'true' northern blocking. Despite this, precip is near avg and temps near or slightly above. #caution

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) August 12, 2020

If that's a recipe for fog and frost I'll take that to wind and rain as winter 19/20 the wind and rain was relentless it was the polar vortex of doom record breaking strength of zonal winds, positive AO/NAO and of course the weak El Nino, and westerly QBO etc.

This are more in our favour this year with warmer than average SST's in the N./ Atlantic, the developing weak La Nina and coming out of solar minimum perhaps? - all we need is a strengthening of QBO and then we would have sufficient source to call for a more colder than average/more blocked winter for 20/21. Also I believe the SSW over Antarctic/southern hemisphere last year in combination with war, SST's over Indian ocean perhaps fueled the jet stream and was also responsible for the extremely cold stratosphere in the N. Pole/Arctic.

 - It really could have got worse for cold and snowy weather fans than the winter of 2019/20!?

I am not that concerned about the EC seasonal as it's is over a tri-monthly so doesn't mean there will be colder incursions within 3 months. I would be more would be more worried if the forecast was for low pressure to our west and high pressure to our south. At any rate is very early days yet. - just under two weeks ago when we reached 37.8c in the south east none of the models forecast one week of extreme heat with temperatures well into the +30s every day and lasting over a week and nighttime minimums of +24 or 25c.

 

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Easterly QBO starting to gain strength ijn the top levels of atmosphere!?

Let's see if this will be a continued trend and infiltrate down into the troposphere at 30hpa!

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