Met Office Hadley           18.1c.       Anomaly      2.2c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                        18.50c      Anomaly      2.28c

Netweather                     18.92c      Anomaly      2.73

Peasedown St John          17.6c     Anomaly     1.22c.          

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Provisional is rising quite slowly. I get the sense it's not running ahead of actual CET so much this month, as it's risen less than the other proxies above. Less of a downward adjustment needed hopefully.

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Met Office Hadley         18.4c       Anomaly      2.5c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                      18.88c     Anomaly      2.65c

Netweather                   19.23c     Anomaly     3.04c

Peasedown St John      18.32c     Anomaly     1.94c.   

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Hadley slow to publish this morning. 

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Hadley No Update

Metcheck              19.35c     Anomaly     3.12c

Netweather           19.35c     Anomaly     3.34c

Peasedown St John  18.31c   Anomaly     1.93c.

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Hmm, okay, I'm getting a little concerned now!

A trend to prolong the heat and extend it further northwest during the middle part of next week is sending CET estimates soaring. Going by the GFS 06z, it could well be in touching distance of 20°C around 13th or 14th.

That particular run doesn't even cool off much after the heat departs - pleasantly warm, then warmer again to end. That last part is against teleconnection-based expectations but if it did happen, would probably lead to a final CET in the 18s °C.

Even if it does cool off markedly, a finish below the 17s is starting to look hard to come by. It's going to happen to me isn't it - too little heat by far last month, too much this month .

 

Down where I am, the outlook is even more sweat-inducing. GFS 06z has the local mean climbing through the 19s this weekend, 20s Mon-Wed, 21s Thu-Fri! It's the hottest run so far, so hopefully overdoing it... but trend of the past 24 hours is a bit scary!

  You were right!  

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I wish I'd been that right at the end of June .

Then again, a CET finish in the 16s can't entirely be ruled out yet. The signals for the final third of August are heavy on cool north-westerly regimes for the UK.

The GFS 12z has the CET peak in the mid-19s mid-month, then slide to the mid-17s as of 28th.

Confidence isn't great on the scale of this slide, though, as there looks to be a period next week where Atlantic lows assault our lands. This being a transition period before the regime shift to one of high pressure a bit west of the UK takes hold... at least in theory!

It's unclear how long this might last and in association with that, how long it takes for the mean polar boundary position to move through the UK. The ECM 12z is a few days slower than the GFS 12z with that.

 

Overall, I'm of the impression that the trends-over-time and overall 'shape' of the month will be in line with my expectations, but the CET somewhere near a degree higher due to underestimation of the heatwave longevity and peak intensity.

Such is the way of things when predicting for a single representation figure (be that the CET, an England-wide average, etc - any summary statistic of that nature). Going beyond that would be a much more complex and time-consuming exercise, so I can understand why that's not the case. After all, I can't see how I'd fit the time for that into my life!

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Very warm night in the West and NW last night, after a much more extensive spread of hot weather yesterday, so I would expect the CET to have a bit of a jump when it finally updates.

The next 7-10 days while unsettled do now look quite warm and humid with mild nights, so could help support the mean into mid-August.

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Met Office Hadley          19.3c        Anomaly       3.3c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                       19.65c      Anomaly       3.42c

Netweather                    19.75c      Anomaly       3.76c

Peasedown St John      19.33c       Anomaly      2.95c.   

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yesterday looks potentially one of the hottest CET days ever looking at the min-maxes. close to 25C

yesterday looks potentially one of the hottest CET days ever looking at the min-maxes. close to 25C

Interestingly my CET tracker is now running ahead of Hadley. CET estimate currently at 19.72C.

We appear to have had two CET date records on 11 and 12 August.

My figure for 12 August is quite a bit higher than Hadley. They have 24.2C, however I calculate a figure of 25.1C.

If the 25.1C verifies this would be only the second time on record that the mean CET has exceeded 25C. The only other occasion was 29 July 1948 when it reached 25.2C.

The CET will remain above average for the next week, mainly due to very warm nights. But much cooler than it has been. However, the final 10 days of the month look like seeing the CET close to or even slightly below average. 

Even so it looks quite possible that the August CET will finish above 18C, unless it turns distinctly chilly in the final week.

Current estimate is 18.3C by 28 August.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley        19.5c        Anomaly        3.4c provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                     19.56c      Anomaly        3.34c

Netweather                  19.99c      Anomaly        3.8c

Peasedown St John     18.35c      Anomaly       2.95c.  

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Copied from the record temperature thread

I had a look at the warmest 7 day periods in the CET archive. I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

Copied from the record temperature thread

I had a look at the warmest 7 day periods in the CET archive. I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

Excellent stats. They reinforce the fact this was a SE-focused heatwave until the last couple of days, and the CET is quite a west focused series. Also a reminder of how general the hot dry weather was in the wonderful summer of 1995. I remember that week well, and I was living in "Central England" at the time.

 

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Interestingly my CET tracker is now running ahead of Hadley. CET estimate currently at 19.72C.

We appear to have had two CET date records on 11 and 12 August.

My figure for 12 August is quite a bit higher than Hadley. They have 24.2C, however I calculate a figure of 25.1C.

If the 25.1C verifies this would be only the second time on record that the mean CET has exceeded 25C. The only other occasion was 29 July 1948 when it reached 25.2C.

The CET will remain above average for the next week, mainly due to very warm nights. But much cooler than it has been. However, the final 10 days of the month look like seeing the CET close to or even slightly below average. 

Even so it looks quite possible that the August CET will finish above 18C, unless it turns distinctly chilly in the final week.

Current estimate is 18.3C by 28 August.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Thanks GW.

Going to be touch and go if we can get that 18C CET August then lol! This one could be going down to the wire! 

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Thanks for those stats GW, interesting reading .

A bit staggered to see your estimate so much above the provisional Hadley - yet more of a fall needed for me... not that I really want the required weather on a personal level!

There's a strong MJO event due to cross the eastern Pacific then tropical Atlantic in the next week or so. This should promote a build of pressure to the west and northwest of the UK for the final third of the month. The models are sniffing that out now, with some impressive 'Arctic Dipole' patterns developing about a week from now (bad news for the sea ice).

So, a dramatic decline of the CET is feasible. It seems a shame that such a warm CET possibility may be lost... I have one heck of a conflict of interests going on .

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Interestingly my CET tracker is now running ahead of Hadley. CET estimate currently at 19.72C.

We appear to have had two CET date records on 11 and 12 August.

My figure for 12 August is quite a bit higher than Hadley. They have 24.2C, however I calculate a figure of 25.1C.

If the 25.1C verifies this would be only the second time on record that the mean CET has exceeded 25C. The only other occasion was 29 July 1948 when it reached 25.2C.

The CET will remain above average for the next week, mainly due to very warm nights. But much cooler than it has been. However, the final 10 days of the month look like seeing the CET close to or even slightly below average. 

Even so it looks quite possible that the August CET will finish above 18C, unless it turns distinctly chilly in the final week.

Current estimate is 18.3C by 28 August.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

That is most unusual if I recall correctly. Not talked about an 'upjustment 'before!

For the record, wasn't 25th July 2019 also a 25.2 CET day?

 

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Great - Thanks for the CET figures.

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Copied from the record temperature thread

I had a look at the warmest 7 day periods in the CET archive. I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

Great - Thanks Simon.

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Copied from the record temperature thread

I had a look at the warmest 7 day periods in the CET archive. I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

Will 7th-13th Aug knock 2003 down a peg? Putting 2020 in third position, behind only the two greatest heatwaves; and when we consider, earlier on, not all CET stations were feeling the heat!

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