Funnily enough, last year also managed two runs of 3 days reaching (~90°F) or higher: 33.7, 34.3, 38.7 for 23rd-25th July and 33.3, 33.2, 33.4 for 25th-27th Aug. Both very impressive spells of weather, yet ones which 2020 might soon surpass.

Makes you think.

Raw GFS output on the 00Z run has maxima from tomorrow of 33, 35, 33, 34, 33, 32. So potentially 6 days of 90F+

Date records from the 7th to the 12th are 34.0, 34.2, 36.7, 38.5, 34.7, 33.9.

The first two look almost sure to go. The 9th and 10th are probably safe but then the 11th and 12th are also well within reach.

 Met O favours Kew right now:

36   37   34   35   35   32

Well- no final figures this early but it seems we have a DR for today; tomorrow's is currently not so given. The NE influence gave this area the best outcomes not just in much of Aug 95, but certainly for a time in 1976 too- the heat seemed to get NE 'ed down to the deep south.

Tomorrow could bring surprises if we don't have another trough incident like today.

So today's maximum is 1.4c down on last Friday's maximum set at Heathrow airport. It did feel slightly less oppressively hot outside I must say.

Well, yesterday's delivered but we missed out today. 

But the heatwave looks as if it might re-extend by a day or so. 

Well, at least it was a new national date record, by 0.3°C.

Here, the local 1973-2019 date record of 31.0°C was smashed, max 32.2°C. Identical to yesterday despite very different cloud timing and wind direction!

Models suggest I may add another degree for tomorrow's max.

Well, yesterday's delivered but we missed out today. 

But the heatwave looks as if it might re-extend by a day or so. 

It was still a date record. No chance of date records for the next couple of days though, as we are competing with the peak of the 1911 and 2003 heatwaves.

 

It was still a date record. No chance of date records for the next couple of days though, as we are competing with the peak of the 1911 and 2003 heatwaves.

Next chance will be Tuesday. Latest Met Office forecast showing 37.

 

Next chance will be Tuesday. Latest Met Office forecast showing 37.

This morning's Arpege has a swathe of 36s and 37s across the SE on Wednesday:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=00&charthour=87&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uk-s&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

 

It was still a date record. No chance of date records for the next couple of days though, as we are competing with the peak of the 1911 and 2003 heatwaves.

Yesterday's peak missed the all time station record at Herstmonceux and the East Sussex temperature record by 0.1C.

The current record is 34.6C set at Herstmonceux on 4 Aug 1990

With thurderstorms forecast this week, won't that make temps of 36c or 37c pretty much unobtainable?

With thurderstorms forecast this week, won't that make temps of 36c or 37c pretty much unobtainable?

Depends on whether you actually get one, and what time of day. I’m not expecting many in the SE, mainly because that’s what usually happens!

A wildcard in the coming days will be 'second-hand sunlight' reflecting off any cumulonimbus in the area that have sufficient clear sky around them. Some of it scatters downward.

The same effect can contribute to an additional intensity of sunlight when shining through a small hole within a tall cloud.

Off a towering thunderstorm with a lot of sunshine around it, well, the effect could be small on the face of it, yet significant. A temporary booster to surface heating.

There's another wildcard relating to thunderstorms. Sometimes, if it's moving fast enough, outflow from a powerful downdraft can compress the air ahead of it, leading to a temporary jump in temperatures. That one's a rarity in this country, though - takes a BIG storm to do it. Usually a supercell.

A wildcard in the coming days will be 'second-hand sunlight' reflecting off any cumulonimbus in the area that have sufficient clear sky around them. Some of it scatters downward.

The same effect can contribute to an additional intensity of sunlight when shining through a small hole within a tall cloud.

Off a towering thunderstorm with a lot of sunshine around it, well, the effect could be small on the face of it, yet significant. A temporary booster to surface heating.

 

There's another wildcard relating to thunderstorms. Sometimes, if it's moving fast enough, outflow from a powerful downdraft can compress the air ahead of it, leading to a temporary jump in temperatures. That one's a rarity in this country, though - takes a BIG storm to do it. Usually a supercell.

That's the notorious 'heat bursts', yes? Numerous documented, none more interesting to me than the Melbourne, January 2014 event. A rise in about an hour, at 10.50 at night, from about 30C to 39C.

Many of the reported cases are at night, as a result of decaying thunderstorms. I think the UK had one last year or the year before.

Yep, 'heat bursts' as some call them. I have a similar recollection .

Two date records likely to fall.

Today,  34.7 from 2003; and tomorrow, a notch easier- 33.9 (1911 and 1953). 

So either 3 or 4 dates records gone in 6 days, not too shabby a spell of hot weather down South at least, if you like that sort of thing of course.

So either 3 or 4 dates records gone in 6 days, not too shabby a spell of hot weather down South at least, if you like that sort of thing of course.

4 - the max today was 35.4