Tuesday 11 Aug - Thursday 20 Aug

There should be a gradual change in conditions through this period as the warm or very warm weather will most likely be displaced east and southeastwards. It will be replaced by fresher, changeable conditions from the west. There should still be a good deal of fine and dry weather across the UK through the period. However, there is a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms in many areas, particularly across the south earlier on in the period. It will be widely warm or very warm at the start of the period, and it could be hot in the southeast at times. Towards the end of the period, temperatures will trend back to near the average for most areas, with the southeast possibly staying warm.

Friday 21 Aug - Friday 4 Sep

Confidence remains fairly low for this period. The south is most likely to see the best of any fine and dry weather as westerlies and southwesterlies dominate. Elsewhere could see some periods of dry and settled weather interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather, primarily from Atlantic frontal systems. The wettest and windiest conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, with the southeast staying driest. Temperatures will be most likely around average or slightly above. There could be some short-lived very warm spells, most likely confined to the south and southeast of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

A very different outlook from the above...just seen this on the met office site?

Very warm or hot for many in the UK through the end of next week, although fresher and largely drier weather will be seen across western areas. Elsewhere will be fairly cloudy with sunny spells and the chance for some heavy or thundery downpours. From the weekend, the UK should slowly see settled conditions become established more widely, spreading eastwards by the end of the following week, although still potentially rather cloudy and humid with the chance of rain in the northwest at times. Temperatures are likely to be warm for many to start and possibly hot at times in the southeast. The potentially hot weather here gives a risk of thunderstorms across the south. Fog patches are possible overnight for many although these will quickly clear through the morning.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 7 Aug 2020

A very different outlook from the above...just seen this on the met office site?

Very warm or hot for many in the UK through the end of next week, although fresher and largely drier weather will be seen across western areas. Elsewhere will be fairly cloudy with sunny spells and the chance for some heavy or thundery downpours. From the weekend, the UK should slowly see settled conditions become established more widely, spreading eastwards by the end of the following week, although still potentially rather cloudy and humid with the chance of rain in the northwest at times. Temperatures are likely to be warm for many to start and possibly hot at times in the southeast. The potentially hot weather here gives a risk of thunderstorms across the south. Fog patches are possible overnight for many although these will quickly clear through the morning.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 7 Aug 2020

 The Met Office long range. chop and change every few days. They are very badly written and totally contradict themselves at times. How an organisation like that can churn out such rubbish is amazing. Their forecast video last night for today totally failed to see the amount of cloud and instability coming in .  

The Met Office long range. chop and change every few days. They are very badly written and totally contradict themselves at times. How an organisation like that can churn out such rubbish is amazing. Their forecast video last night for today totally failed to see the amount of cloud and instability coming in .  

I agree with the forecast chopping and changing. 

Today's forecast a case in point. As I said a complete Fail for here apart from the temp which was not far off.

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Some hot weather at times, but lows threaten

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Monday 10 August – Sunday 16 August

Hot conditions, but thunderstorms likely

This weekend, high pressure will continue to build across the UK, bringing plenty of dry, sunny weather. A northeasterly breeze with take the edge off the heat a little, but highs will be into the 30s Celsius across southeast England. It will rather humid too, making for some rather uncomfortable nights, with temperatures still in the low 20s Celsius overnight for parts of England and Wales. Over the weekend, there is a risk of some showers and thunderstorms developing, but this risk heightens as we head into the new working week.

Monday and Tuesday could see clusters of thunderstorms pushing up from the south, with heavy downpours and frequent lightning a distinct possibility. On Wednesday, further showers and thunderstorms look possible, most likely across southern England, with an additional risk of downpours and frequent lightning. The risk of thunderstorms should then shift away into the near continent into the second half of the working week, as the ridge of high pressure shifts eastwards. This will allow temperatures to moderate heading into the end of the working week as winds shift, but it will still be on the warmer side of average.

For next weekend, high pressure should build in from the southwest, bringing largely dry and fine weather, and temperatures slightly above average.

Monday 17 August – Sunday 23 August

A chance of another hot spell or heatwave

Around this period, high pressure is likely to be near to the British Isles, or out to the northeast over Scandinavia. This should bring plenty of dry and settled weather, perhaps with multiple sunny days for many parts of the UK.

Whilst high pressure is likely to be towards the northeast, there is the potential for low pressure to become situated out to the west of the UK. This set-up can lead to intense warming across the UK, as warm air tends to plume up from the south. As a result, there is the chance of another hot spell or heatwave during the week. After the heatwave conditions earlier in August, further hot weather could see temperatures trending much warmer than average for August as a whole.

However, with low pressure out to the west, fronts may creep into Northern Ireland and Scotland, bringing some wet spells of weather here. There is also the risk that low pressure is instead more influential right over the British Isles, bringing unsettled weather more widely across the UK.

Monday 24 August – Sunday 6 September

Wetter in the north, mostly dry in the south

Through late August and early September, areas of low pressure are expected to track over Iceland and near to the north of the UK, with fronts glancing Scotland and occasionally Northern Ireland at first. Gradually as we head into September, associated fronts will extend across the UK, with wet and breezy spells of weather looking likely for most. Rainy periods will probably be most frequent across Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst England and Wales may only see fleeting spells of wet weather as fronts come and go. Southeast England will likely be the driest spot, with only the odd patch of rain likely.

In fact, a strong northwest-southeast split in the weather looks probable for this period. High pressure may ridge in from Europe to give lengthier periods of dry and warm weather over the southeast, whilst fronts pushing into the northwest will give frequent wet spells and fluctuating temperatures.

Since the UK is sat on the periphery of the two weather regimes mentioned above, there is considerable uncertainty by this point, as one weather type may dominate over the other for an extended period. There is a risk that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead. By the same token, high pressure ridging may be more persistent and extensive over the UK, which would bring drier, warmer weather more widely across the country. Another complicating matter is that by late-August the Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to become rather active, and this can lead to large swings in the weather for the UK.

Further ahead

We will examine the complicated pattern for next few weeks and see whether there's a possibility of any further hot spells of weather across the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 13 Aug - Saturday 22 Aug

Warm or very warm for many through to the end of next week, although cooler and fresher conditions will gradually move in from the west. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is expected, with a risk of some heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Over the weekend and into the following week, more settled, drier conditions will probably become established, although some thundery showers may still affect the southeast at first and there is a chance of thicker cloud bringing outbreaks of rain to the northwest at times. Fog patches are possible overnight for many although these will quickly clear through the mornings. Temperatures are likely to be warm for most parts of the UK well into the middle of August.

Sunday 23 Aug - Sunday 6 Sep

Confidence is low for this period. Northwestern areas of the UK will probably be changeable with periods of cloudy skies, outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds interspersed with drier, brighter spells. Further south and southeast it is likely to be drier and warmer with more in the way of sunshine. Hot conditions may affect the southeast at times, bringing a risk of thunderstorms which may spread further north at times. Towards the end of August and into early September, more changeable and cooler conditions may become more widely established across the UK as a whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 14 Aug - Sunday 23 Aug

Warm or very warm for many through to the end of next week, although cooler and fresher conditions will gradually move in from the west. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is expected, with a risk of some heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Over the weekend and into the following week, more settled, drier conditions will probably become established, although some thundery showers may still affect the southeast at first and there is a chance of thicker cloud bringing outbreaks of rain to the northwest at times. Fog patches are possible overnight for many although these will quickly clear through the mornings. Temperatures are likely to be warm for most parts of the UK well into the middle of August.

Monday 24 Aug - Monday 7 Sep

Confidence is low for this period. Northwestern areas of the UK will probably be changeable with periods of cloudy skies, outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds interspersed with drier, brighter spells. Further south and southeast it is likely to be drier and warmer with more in the way of sunshine. Hot conditions may affect the southeast at times, bringing a risk of thunderstorms which may spread further north at times. Towards the end of August and into early September, more changeable and cooler conditions may become more widely established across the UK as a whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

A slip of the tongue' from Carol Kirwood:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/femailnews/video-2226680/Video-Weve-seen-doggers-BBCs-Carol-makes-gaffe-live-air.html

 

 

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Saturday 15 Aug - Monday 24 Aug

Warm or very warm for many through to the end of next week, although cooler and fresher conditions will gradually move in from the west. A mixture of sunny spells and showers is expected, with a risk of some heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Over the weekend and into the following week, more settled, drier conditions will probably become established, although some thundery showers may still affect the southeast at first and there is a chance of thicker cloud bringing outbreaks of rain to the northwest at times. Fog patches are possible overnight for many although these will quickly clear through the mornings. Temperatures are likely to be warm for most parts of the UK well into the middle of August.

Tuesday 25 Aug - Tuesday 8 Sep

Confidence is low for this period. Northwestern areas of the UK will probably be changeable with periods of cloudy skies, outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds interspersed with drier, brighter spells. Further south and southeast it is likely to be drier and warmer with more in the way of sunshine. Hot conditions may affect the southeast at times, bringing a risk of thunderstorms which may spread further north at times. Towards the end of August and into early September, more changeable and cooler conditions may become more widely established across the UK as a whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 16 Aug - Tuesday 25 Aug

The beginning of the period should see settled conditions persisting with cloudy and humid conditions interspersed with sunny spells. Some light rain may spread north-westwards at times towards the middle of August. Southern and southeastern areas may see further periods of hot weather and thunderstorms at times throughout the period. Elsewhere it is likely to remain warm or very warm though cooler than last week. Fog patches are possible overnight for many which should readily clear during the mornings. Northwestern areas may see more changeable conditions developing towards the end of the period with a mixture of windier and wetter days mingled with drier days. Eastern and northeastern areas are likely to remain more settled throughout.

Wednesday 26 Aug - Wednesday 9 Sep

Although confidence is low for this period, conditions will likely become more changeable with periods of rain and breezier days at times at the end of August and into September, with temperatures returning to around average for the time of year. However, eastern areas will see the best of more settled weather with lighter winds and drier days. There is a possibility that some southern regions will turn very warm with thunderstorms at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 17 Aug - Wednesday 26 Aug

The beginning of the period should see settled conditions persisting with cloudy and humid conditions interspersed with sunny spells. Some light rain may spread north-westwards at times towards the middle of August. Southern and southeastern areas may see further periods of hot weather and thunderstorms at times throughout the period. Elsewhere it is likely to remain warm or very warm though cooler than last week. Fog patches are possible overnight for many which should readily clear during the mornings. Northwestern areas may see more changeable conditions developing towards the end of the period with a mixture of windier and wetter days mingled with drier days. Eastern and northeastern areas are likely to remain more settled throughout.

Thursday 27 Aug - Thursday 10 Sep

Although confidence is low for this period, conditions will likely become more changeable with periods of rain and breezier days at times at the end of August and into September, with temperatures returning to around average for the time of year. However, eastern areas will see the best of more settled weather with lighter winds and drier days. There is a possibility that some southern regions will turn very warm with thunderstorms at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Very good forecast video from Aidan, explaining the probabilities and using charts and graphs I hadn’t seen before on a Met forecast.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028?s=21 

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Very good forecast video from Aidan, explaining the probabilities and using charts and graphs I hadn’t seen before on a Met forecast.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028?s=21

Yes, MetOffice videos forecasts are excellent. Their presenters are good as well. 

They are my go to now. BBC just isn’t the same anymore I am afraid.

I used to like Isobelle Lang. Why she went to Sky I don’t know. Their forecasts are just awful. They always seem to only go up to 12:00.

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The video forecasts are excellent but nothing like the text forecasts!

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Very good forecast video from Aidan, explaining the probabilities and using charts and graphs I hadn’t seen before on a Met forecast.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028?s=21

Yes agreed this was excellent.

A chart of probabilistic pressure trends for next week is very good to see rather than a simplistic deterministic forecast.

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Tuesday 18 Aug - Thursday 27 Aug

The beginning of this period is likely to be generally unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain at times. There is also a low chance that there could be some further thundery weather, although this would most likely be confined towards the southeast of the UK. It is likely to be windier than of late, especially in the west where there is also a risk of gales. Temperatures should start rather warm for many, despite the spells of unsettled weather. However, temperatures may cool slightly by the end of this period as the low pressure system, which was situated over the west of the UK, pushes towards the east and allows for a freshening breeze to develop from the northwest.

Friday 28 Aug - Friday 11 Sep

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that conditions will become more changeable with settled days interspersed with periods of rain and strengthening winds, especially in the northwest. However, the east and southeast will perhaps remain slightly more settled throughout with temperatures around or above average. There is also a possibility for southern regions to turn very warm at times, with a potential for thunderstorms to develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

For a laugh - the La Meteo.org seasonal forecast.

https://youtu.be/_3ZZ-BLoq4o

 

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Wednesday 19 Aug - Friday 28 Aug

The beginning of this period is likely to be generally unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain at times, potentially becoming heavy in places. There is also a chance that there could be some further thundery weather, although this would most likely be confined towards the east and southeast of the UK. It is likely to be windier than of late, especially in the south and west where there is also a risk of gales. Temperatures should start rather warm for many, despite the spells of unsettled weather. However, temperatures may cool slightly by the end of this period with freshening winds from the northwest likely to create a more widespread risk of gales.

Saturday 29 Aug - Saturday 12 Sep

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that conditions will become more changeable with drier and brighter days interspersed with periods of rain and strengthening winds. Temperatures should be around the average for this time of year. Towards the end of this period, there are some tentative signs that high pressure could begin to dominate, especially across the south of the UK, with a return to more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 20 Aug - Saturday 29 Aug

The beginning of this period is likely to be generally unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain at times, potentially becoming heavy in places. There is also a chance that there could be some further thundery weather, although this would most likely be confined towards the east and southeast of the UK. It is likely to be windier than of late, especially in the south and west where there is also a risk of gales. Temperatures should start rather warm for many, despite the spells of unsettled weather. However, temperatures may cool slightly by the end of this period with freshening winds from the northwest likely to create a more widespread risk of gales.

Sunday 30 Aug - Sunday 13 Sep

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that conditions will become more changeable with drier and brighter days interspersed with periods of rain and strengthening winds. Temperatures should be around the average for this time of year. Towards the end of this period, there are some tentative signs that high pressure could begin to dominate, especially across the south of the UK, with a return to more settled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/