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Online four  
#101 Posted : 30 July 2020 06:41:21(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 20,358
Location: N.Y.Moors

13.4C (-1.5C) here.

Online ARTzeman  
#102 Posted : 30 July 2020 09:47:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          15.7c       Anomaly       -0.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                       15.62c     Anomaly       -0.84c

Netweather                    16.05c     Anomaly       -0.46c

Peasedown St John       15.82c     Anomaly       -1.18c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#103 Posted : 30 July 2020 09:59:33(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

So begins the final push. Temps didn't fall too low last night and today looks good for mid-20s maximums widely, hopefully far north enough for the CET region to average about that. 

Then we have tomorrow, which I wonder if might produce one of the largest last-day-of-month CET climbs on record - but still only by two or three tenths. There's only so much you can do when competing with 30 days averaging much lower!

I wonder if the true CET can possibly make it to 16°C?

 

I've noticed Pershore doing pretty well for temps in recent days - but not so for the other two locations further north and east. The warmer temps just haven't quite made it far enough in that direction, frustratingly for the 16+ club.

 

August approaches. Now we have the opposite signal to July - much warmth in the modelling for the first half, but suggestions to be found in the 'background drivers' that this will find it hard to sustain much past that.

Unfortunately, a huge fail of long-range probability forecasting one month in no way precludes the same occurring the next month, so again there's the conundrum of 'to trust or not to trust?'.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#104 Posted : 30 July 2020 17:26:43(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Posts: 101
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Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

We are overdue a scorching August but it would be very rare for it to be parked at the end of such a nondescript summer though. 1997 is the only example I can think of for that pattern.

Having said that it was pretty decent last year with some good bursts of heat

Online ARTzeman  
#105 Posted : 31 July 2020 09:50:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 27,557
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         15.8c         Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                      15.79c       Anomaly       -0.67c

Netweather                   16.18c       Anomaly       -0.33c

Peasedown St John     15.9c         Anomaly       -1.1c.

Edited by user 31 July 2020 16:27:46(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Bertwhistle  
#106 Posted : 31 July 2020 12:20:23(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,325
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         15.08         Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                      15.79c       Anomaly       -0.67c

Netweather                   16.18c       Anomaly       -0.33c

Peasedown St John     15.9c         Anomaly       -1.1c.

15.8 of course.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Stormchaser  
#107 Posted : 31 July 2020 12:48:27(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Posts: 11,931
Man
Location: West Hants

Another surprisingly small rise yesterday, thought it would be double that. I must have something wrong with the location of one or two of these sites:

Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Ringway


Pretty sure I have Rothamsted and Malvern right, not sure about the others as they don't come up as clear-cut place names in Google.


So, what of today. Over 30*C a very long way north and west across the country. Was a bit cool in places last night though - low teens. Disappointing there.

Ah well, what can I do. The expected switch to a markedly warmer overall pattern (which looks true even accounting for the cooler Sun-Tue upcoming) was delayed a whole fortnight in the end! 

That's the thing, you see - the mechanism behind it is just as was anticipated far in advance, but the timing is unusually far out at the would-have-been 2 weeks lead time.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline fairweather  
#108 Posted : 31 July 2020 12:50:34(UTC)
fairweather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,850
Location: Essex

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
We are overdue a scorching August but it would be very rare for it to be parked at the end of such a nondescript summer though. 1997 is the only example I can think of for that pattern.
Having said that it was pretty decent last year with some good bursts of heat

Been warm and very dry summer where I am in S.Essex and quite sunny. Although the rainfall totals don't look that low in reality they were just a handful of occasions with no more then 8-12mm which being at big intervals of two weeks or so has made for parched conditions. Most showers bi-passed here.

Online four  
#109 Posted : 31 July 2020 12:51:06(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,358
Location: N.Y.Moors

One hot day at the end of the month barely changes the average whereas earlier on it would be more marked.

It's still 13.5C (-1.4C) here

Online ARTzeman  
#110 Posted : 31 July 2020 16:29:07(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,557
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

 

15.8 of course.

  Corrected. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#111 Posted : 01 August 2020 09:54:00(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,421
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Final CET for July is 15.73C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

Congratulations to Gusty who was incredibly close

The month end downward adjustment this month was 0.31C. The provisional Hadley figure finished at 16.04C

Edited by user 01 August 2020 09:55:32(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#112 Posted : 01 August 2020 09:56:46(UTC)
Global Warming

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United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

The mean CET for 31 July was 23.7C.

This is a record beating the previous high of 23.4C set in 1943.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#113 Posted : 01 August 2020 10:05:01(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 6,421
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Yesterday's maximum CET of 33.2C is the joint second highest on record (beaten only by 25 July last year)

Highest maximum CET returns on record (since 1878)

25 July 2019    34.1C

31 July 2020    33.2C

3 August 1990  33.2C

3 July 1976      33.2C

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Windy Willow  
#114 Posted : 01 August 2020 11:52:35(UTC)
Windy Willow

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Posts: 522
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

Well done Gusty! 

 

Thanks as always GW 

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Gusty  
#115 Posted : 01 August 2020 11:57:34(UTC)
Gusty

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Location: Folkestone

Thanks Windy and GW.

I'm VERY pleased with that result ! 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Bertwhistle  
#116 Posted : 02 August 2020 08:12:09(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,325
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Yesterday's maximum CET of 33.2C is the joint second highest on record (beaten only by 25 July last year)

Highest maximum CET returns on record (since 1878)

25 July 2019    34.1C

31 July 2020    33.2C

3 August 1990  33.2C

3 July 1976      33.2C

Fascinating. Reminds us just what an anomaly 25.7.19 was.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Global Warming  
#117 Posted : 02 August 2020 11:48:10(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,421
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the charts for July and the summer so far

Chart1

Chart2

Chart3

Chart4

Chart5

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#118 Posted : 02 August 2020 11:55:37(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,421
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Annual CET competition - July update

So Gusty takes the lead this month with his excellent prediction. Darren S only slightly behind. These two are well ahead of the chasing pack.

sussex snow magnet and Hunger Tiger climbing significantly this month into the top 10.

TABLE

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline GezM  
#119 Posted : 02 August 2020 13:14:14(UTC)
GezM

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 865
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

July has really shaken things up. An outstanding prediction by Gusty. It is often the months that are significantly above or below average that define the competition.

I was quite relieved to have edged up one more place this month but I already fear that I have gone far too low for August. Time will tell ....

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Gusty  
#120 Posted : 02 August 2020 13:32:57(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 14,675
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post
July has really shaken things up. An outstanding prediction by Gusty. It is often the months that are significantly above or below average that define the competition.
.

You are only as good as your last month in this competition Gez ! 

My 'very average' August prediction has been based on a 3 hot spell in an otherwise relatively cool and unsettled month.

All the good work last month could very quickly be undone if the latest NWP guidance is to be trusted. 

 

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

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July UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
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