13.4C (-1.5C) here.

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Met Office Hadley          15.7c       Anomaly       -0.4c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                       15.62c     Anomaly       -0.84c

Netweather                    16.05c     Anomaly       -0.46c

Peasedown St John       15.82c     Anomaly       -1.18c. 

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So begins the final push. Temps didn't fall too low last night and today looks good for mid-20s maximums widely, hopefully far north enough for the CET region to average about that. 

Then we have tomorrow, which I wonder if might produce one of the largest last-day-of-month CET climbs on record - but still only by two or three tenths. There's only so much you can do when competing with 30 days averaging much lower!

I wonder if the true CET can possibly make it to 16°C?

 

I've noticed Pershore doing pretty well for temps in recent days - but not so for the other two locations further north and east. The warmer temps just haven't quite made it far enough in that direction, frustratingly for the 16+ club.

 

August approaches. Now we have the opposite signal to July - much warmth in the modelling for the first half, but suggestions to be found in the 'background drivers' that this will find it hard to sustain much past that.

Unfortunately, a huge fail of long-range probability forecasting one month in no way precludes the same occurring the next month, so again there's the conundrum of 'to trust or not to trust?'.

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We are overdue a scorching August but it would be very rare for it to be parked at the end of such a nondescript summer though. 1997 is the only example I can think of for that pattern.
Having said that it was pretty decent last year with some good bursts of heat

Met Office Hadley         15.8c         Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                      15.79c       Anomaly       -0.67c

Netweather                   16.18c       Anomaly       -0.33c

Peasedown St John     15.9c         Anomaly       -1.1c.

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Met Office Hadley         15.08         Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                      15.79c       Anomaly       -0.67c

Netweather                   16.18c       Anomaly       -0.33c

Peasedown St John     15.9c         Anomaly       -1.1c.

15.8 of course.

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Another surprisingly small rise yesterday, thought it would be double that. I must have something wrong with the location of one or two of these sites:

Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Ringway

Pretty sure I have Rothamsted and Malvern right, not sure about the others as they don't come up as clear-cut place names in Google.

So, what of today. Over 30*C a very long way north and west across the country. Was a bit cool in places last night though - low teens. Disappointing there.

Ah well, what can I do. The expected switch to a markedly warmer overall pattern (which looks true even accounting for the cooler Sun-Tue upcoming) was delayed a whole fortnight in the end! 

That's the thing, you see - the mechanism behind it is just as was anticipated far in advance, but the timing is unusually far out at the would-have-been 2 weeks lead time.

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We are overdue a scorching August but it would be very rare for it to be parked at the end of such a nondescript summer though. 1997 is the only example I can think of for that pattern.
Having said that it was pretty decent last year with some good bursts of heat

Been warm and very dry summer where I am in S.Essex and quite sunny. Although the rainfall totals don't look that low in reality they were just a handful of occasions with no more then 8-12mm which being at big intervals of two weeks or so has made for parched conditions. Most showers bi-passed here.

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One hot day at the end of the month barely changes the average whereas earlier on it would be more marked.
It's still 13.5C (-1.4C) here

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15.8 of course.

  Corrected. 

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Final CET for July is 15.73C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

Congratulations to Gusty who was incredibly close

The month end downward adjustment this month was 0.31C. The provisional Hadley figure finished at 16.04C

The mean CET for 31 July was 23.7C.

This is a record beating the previous high of 23.4C set in 1943.

Yesterday's maximum CET of 33.2C is the joint second highest on record (beaten only by 25 July last year)

Highest maximum CET returns on record (since 1878)

25 July 2019    34.1C

31 July 2020    33.2C

3 August 1990  33.2C

3 July 1976      33.2C

Well done Gusty! 

 

Thanks as always GW 

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Thanks Windy and GW.

I'm VERY pleased with that result ! 

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Yesterday's maximum CET of 33.2C is the joint second highest on record (beaten only by 25 July last year)

Highest maximum CET returns on record (since 1878)

25 July 2019    34.1C

31 July 2020    33.2C

3 August 1990  33.2C

3 July 1976      33.2C

Fascinating. Reminds us just what an anomaly 25.7.19 was.

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Here are the charts for July and the summer so far

Chart1

Chart2

Chart3

Chart4

Chart5

Annual CET competition - July update

So Gusty takes the lead this month with his excellent prediction. Darren S only slightly behind. These two are well ahead of the chasing pack.

sussex snow magnet and Hunger Tiger climbing significantly this month into the top 10.

TABLE

July has really shaken things up. An outstanding prediction by Gusty. It is often the months that are significantly above or below average that define the competition.
I was quite relieved to have edged up one more place this month but I already fear that I have gone far too low for August. Time will tell ....

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July has really shaken things up. An outstanding prediction by Gusty. It is often the months that are significantly above or below average that define the competition.
.

You are only as good as your last month in this competition Gez ! 

My 'very average' August prediction has been based on a 3 hot spell in an otherwise relatively cool and unsettled month.

All the good work last month could very quickly be undone if the latest NWP guidance is to be trusted. 

 

 

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