Such a cool month still, emphasing a N-S contrast quite a lot.

Even between the CET zone and the far south, the contrast is notable. We have often been just south of the boundary, giving few cool nights. My average max to yesterday was 21.6 and the min 12.9 giving an overall mean of 17.25°C.

That's some way higher than even Art's Somerset mean of 15.8 thereabouts, so perhaps it's only the SE that's doing okay. 

Such a cool month still, emphasing a N-S contrast quite a lot.

Even between the CET zone and the far south, the contrast is notable. We have often been just south of the boundary, giving few cool nights. My average max to yesterday was 21.6 and the min 12.9 giving an overall mean of 17.25°C.

That's some way higher than even Art's Somerset mean of 15.8 thereabouts, so perhaps it's only the SE that's doing okay. 

Hampshire is doing very well reaching mid 20's everyday this week. 

3/4 of the previous days the UK official hot spot has been at Gosport, but yesterday Heathrow pinched it. Already approaching 24C again here in north portsmouth (for the 5th consecutive day) and its only midday.

While we’ve had no scorching days this month, it’s been pleasant with temps in the low 20’s most days, which is usable and comfortable for me.  Night temps have fallen into single digits on three occasions earlier this week but have been mostly in the low teens, so comfortable for sleeping.  There has been a lack of rain but also quite a lot of cloud, so sunshine has been lacking as well.  

This week, there’s been a strange pattern to the weather.  Warm sunshine in the mornings, then a cool light breeze late morning making it feel chilly for a couple of hours and then it’s been warm in the afternoon but cloudy.  The sun has then come out again before it sets.  

A couple of markedly milder nights for the CET region since 22nd and somewhat warm by day. Similar again tomorrow, should be enough to lift the CET at least a few tenths from where it was as of Wednesday. Sunday could also be along the same lines, depending on whether GFS is taking the temps down a bit too far during Sat night.

Monday will probably start mild too, but could be cool by day, depending on how much persistent rain there is in association with a quite vigorous low moving through.

In the wake of that comes a problem for the mid-16s+ club - some quite cool air being drawn down from the north. Best that can be hoped for is that the flow stays brisk enough to prevent really low overnight minima (i.e. single digits).

Then, the final two days of the month see the potential for the highest CET returns of the month. It's conceivable that the UK will manage a 30°C after all, right at the end! It remains to be seen how quickly the heat moves in - GFS is persistently faster than ECM with a notable effect by 30th, whereas ECM only really turns the temps up for 31st.

I have a feeling this hot finish, if it comes about, may at least manage to lift my local mean up toward the long-term average. To 23rd, the anomaly is -0.61°C and it looks to rise to no lower than -0.50°C as of 25th. That cooler interlude 28th-29th might prove a bit much to overcome, though!

Met Office Hadley        15.4c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     15.45c     Anomaly     -1.01c

Netweather                  15.88c     Anomaly     -0.63c

Peasedown St John     15.82c     Anomaly      -1.18c.      

Met Office Hadley        15.4c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     15.45c     Anomaly     -1.01c

Netweather                  15.88c     Anomaly     -0.63c

Peasedown St John     15.82c     Anomaly      -1.18c.      

I'm unpleasantly surprised to see the CET static instead of increasing at least slightly - but then, I've not been checking the station data. I guess it was cooler than modelled toward the northeast... I've forgotten which stations exactly are used, so can't be sure! 

Very annoying, regardless. This month can seriously go [use your imagination if you like].

Well the anomaly chart says it all. Only 6 days above average this month including today, tomorrow and the last day of then month.

Almost all the above average days are due to very high minimums.

The July Max CET is likely to come in around 19.0C which would be in line with 2007 and 1993. 

The mean CET is estimated to come in around 15.44C. Slightly higher than 2007 and 2011 but not by much. Very similar to 2012. 

Chart 1

Chart 2

That is a truly depressing anomaly chart for July. Now, if we saw that same chart in January the model thread would have been manic for weeks!

Well done to Gusty Steve for calling it correctly,  or at least far more accurately than the rest of us! 

Yes, let’s hope August proves itself for a change because although Summer hasn’t been too bad so far, it’s a disappointment when compared to the very warm and sunny Spring we had.  Recent Augusts have been a letdown but it doesn’t have to do too much this year to be the best month of Summer. 

HadCET to 24th 15.5°C

Metcheck        15.8c      Anomaly     -0.88c

Netweather     15.99c    Anomaly     -0.52c

Peasedown St John   16.3c   Anomaly  -0.7c   

Looking good for a sub 16c finish.

I'm very pleased the way this month has turned out with regard to the CET prediction. There is still a little way to go though. I will still be hoping for a finish of 5.7 or slightly lower to maximise my advantage this month.

Fortunately for me I didn't see the warm / hot signal that so many others saw. If it was there I must have been giving the model output a miss at the time.

I must also confess I did gulp when I saw the July predictions. For a while I couldn't see myself on the list until I realised I was at the bottom of the pile ! 

Met Office Hadley          15.6c       Anomaly       -0.4c

Metcheck                       15.58c     Anomaly       -0.88c

Netweather                    16.05c     Anomaly       -0.46c

Peasedown St John      16.16c     Anomaly        -0.84c    

Just went to do my first CET projection in a while and noticed that the short to mid-range model-based CET estimate range for 25th July as of 30th June was 16.2 to 16.6°C. That’s with average conditions as a placeholder for 16th-31st.

Onto this, the warmer than average week 3-4 signal was applied. This being for the weeks of the year they have among the highest long-term averages to begin with. Resulting range was mid-16s to high 17s. I won’t deny that I should have played it safer within that range... as soon as 3rd July I was wondering why I didn’t go for high 16s. Foolish mistake on my part.

So, what of that new projection... well, the CET edges up slightly to 15.7°C as of 27th, only to lose that gain during the following two days.

Then, a much warmer final two days of the month lifts it to 15.8°C by the GFS 12z run or 15.9°C by the ECM 12z run.

This is using that provisional CET as a starting point, though. So we could well be talking one to three tenths lower in reality.

I expect that that warmer finish is being underestimated as usual, but as a counter to that, the minima early Tue and early Wed could be lower than modelled, given the combo of light winds and a quite cool airmass moving through. We saw that a bit early last week, which hit the CET quite hard.

On the other hand, Tue-Wed daytime may well be warmer than modelled. So maybe we see more of an overall climb in the CET. It'll do well to reach 16.0°C, though. 

I honestly can't quite believe I'm writing that... the week 3-4 signals were so incredibly misleading, this month . Gusty, you picked a great time to live under a rock! :p

Thought I'd see where my local mean is heading. Plugging in the numbers from each of GFS, ARPEGE and ECM gives me a range of final figures from 16.7°C to 17.0°C, compared to a 1981-2010 average of 16.8°C.

June was 0.2°C above average.

So, where I am, 2020 will be on track for the 'least anomalous summer' temperature-wise .

Rainfall is a different story. June was very near average at 97.3%, but July looks likely to finish at less than 50%.

Sunshine is uncertain - June was 99.7% of the norm but July needs to find about 55 more hours to reach the average, which while doable will require a lot of clear weather Tue-Fri. A bit of sun this afternoon would help.

Met Office Hadley           15.7c       Anomaly        -0.3c Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                        15.63c     Anomaly        -0.83c

Netweather                     16.07c     Anomaly        -0.44c

Peasedown St John        15.87c     Anomaly       1.13c.

Met Office Hadley         15.7c.     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                      15.62c    Anomaly     -0.84c

Netweather                   16.08c    Anomaly     -0.42c

Peasedown St John     15.88c    Anomaly      -1.12c.   

Thought I'd see where my local mean is heading. Plugging in the numbers from each of GFS, ARPEGE and ECM gives me a range of final figures from 16.7°C to 17.0°C, compared to a 1981-2010 average of 16.8°C.

June was 0.2°C above average.

So, where I am, 2020 will be on track for the 'least anomalous summer' temperature-wise .

Rainfall is a different story. June was very near average at 97.3%, but July looks likely to finish at less than 50%.

Sunshine is uncertain - June was 99.7% of the norm but July needs to find about 55 more hours to reach the average, which while doable will require a lot of clear weather Tue-Fri. A bit of sun this afternoon would help.

Given the official CET figure so far, it's clear that the temps in Pershore and, more importantly, Lancashire, have been below average.

Although I've been out of the country for about a third of the month, I know that rainfall - more 'days where rain has fallen' than total mm I suspect - has been well above average, with sunshine totals well down. 

Met Office Hadley       15.7c        Anomaly        -0.3c Provisional to 28th

Metcheck                    15.58c      Anomaly        -0.83c

Netweather                 16.05c      Anomaly        -0.46c

Peasedown St John    15.92c     Anomaly        -1.08c