Latest CET tracker shows a continuing cool trend this week with the CET struggling to stay above 15C. Today will be a "warm" day due to the very high overnight minimums.
From 12 July the ECM is suggesting something warmer, albeit only slightly above average. I am somewhat sceptical though as this time last week the ECM suggested a warm up in a week's time and it has failed to materialise. So caution is the watchword this month.
I think the CET is likely to stay well below 17C this month. Those towards the bottom of the table look strongly favoured at the moment. But of course things could change significantly if we had a heatwave in the final third of the month.
If Gusty's prediction of 15.7C was to turn out to be correct he would take over the lead in the CET competition at the end of the month.
As it stands I estimate a CET around 16.2C by the 19th which is getting close to the long run average.
Worth noting that my estimate is already around 0.5C below the Hadley provisional data this month.
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Chart 1
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Chart 2