Here are the July predictions

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Table

 

You missed my guess 17.9c

Sent it 30th June

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Screenshot Done for posterity.

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I went for 0.5C below normal for this July. Reckon that was a good move.

I went for 17.5c and I’m not giving up on it yet!  
During the first half of June, apart from the first couple of days, I thought I’d well overdone it but it turned out fairly close in the end.  I’m giving it at least another week before I start to panic!  

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Here are the July predictions

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Table

  Cheers GW!  

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Thanks, GW! Nice to see what other folk have gone for. Happy enough with my guess (for now) as I still expect a gradual warmup from mid-month.

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Met Office Hadley        15.7c       Anomaly     0.2c Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                     15.73c     Anomaly     -0.73c

Netweather                  15.89c     Anomaly     -0.62c

Peasedown St John    15.48c      Anomaly     -2.32c 

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You missed my guess 17.9c

Sent it 30th June

Sorry I do have it. There was a slight formula issue with the chart which meant that yours and Showshoe's predictions were not showing up. Corrected table below.

Table

Latest CET tracker shows a continuing cool trend this week with the CET struggling to stay above 15C. Today will be a "warm" day due to the very high overnight minimums.

From 12 July the ECM is suggesting something warmer, albeit only slightly above average. I am somewhat sceptical though as this time last week the ECM suggested a warm up in a week's time and it has failed to materialise. So caution is the watchword this month. 

I think the CET is likely to stay well below 17C this month. Those towards the bottom of the table look strongly favoured at the moment. But of course things could change significantly if we had a heatwave in the final third of the month.

If Gusty's prediction of 15.7C was to turn out to be correct he would take over the lead in the CET competition at the end of the month.

As it stands I estimate a CET around 16.2C by the 19th which is getting close to the long run average.

Worth noting that my estimate is already around 0.5C below the Hadley provisional data this month.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Well - I went for 0.5C below normal for this montth and glad I did.

 

 

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Sorry I do have it. There was a slight formula issue with the chart which meant that yours and Showshoe's predictions were not showing up. Corrected table below.

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Table

 

Thanks GW. Great work as always!

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Thanks for the update GW - though I have to say, 'the CET is likely to stay well below 17C this month' is an extremely presumptuous statement for so early in the month. 

There's a strong signal in the modelling for a shift in the broad-scale pattern by next week to one that tends to be a good deal warmer overall. There have been hints in recent GFS runs of a setup conducive to hot air moving up from the south for at least a short time.

There's not currently enough La Nina forcing to the atmospheric state for such much warmer patterns to be ruled out.

 

Admittedly, I do already suspect I've gone at least a little high.

Feeling that a range of 16.0-17.0°C is the most likely final CET landing zone.

To be honest, this hasn't changed since the end of June, as I could see no clear signal for overall departure from average.

I just didn't want to make yet another really boring prediction and couldn't see enough support for going more than 0.5°C below average in today's warmer background climate. It takes a lot these days for me to go that side!

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Thanks for the update GW - though I have to say, 'the CET is likely to stay well below 17C this month' is an extremely presumptuous statement for so early in the month. 

There's a strong signal in the modelling for a shift in the broad-scale pattern by next week to one that tends to be a good deal warmer overall. There have been hints in recent GFS runs of a setup conducive to hot air moving up from the south for at least a short time.

There's not currently enough La Nina forcing to the atmospheric state for such much warmer patterns to be ruled out.

 

Admittedly, I do already suspect I've gone at least a little high.

Feeling that a range of 16.0-17.0°C is the most likely final CET landing zone.

To be honest, this hasn't changed since the end of June, as I could see no clear signal for overall departure from average.

I just didn't want to make yet another really boring prediction and couldn't see enough support for going more than 0.5°C below average in today's warmer background climate. It takes a lot these days for me to go that side!

 

You say it takes alot but we did have a run of very poor Julies (for both CET and rainfall) in the late 00s and again a couple in the early 10s. 

Personally I would be happy with a cool and dry summer- this is a combination we rarely get in the summer months but might just finally get this month (In the SE where I am , anyway)

 

Well, caution is indeed the watchword.  For example, if we get to circa July 19 and we have a CET of 16.2, and then a warm final third, that will push the CET over 17c, so Id say that anything between 17.5 and 16.5 is likely and if I were sitting on 17c (Darren!) id be pretty happy about it.

Things could of course go the other way, but Ive a feeling we will end up closer to 17 than 16.

God only knows.

WI

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  A lot of variation in the predictions of our knowledgeable ones then!  But hey!  This is the British summer!  Bring on the snow, I mean heatwave!  

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Met Office Hadley         15.8c.      Anomaly      0.2c Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                      15.56c     Anomaly      -0.90c

Netweather                   16.0c       Anomaly      -0.49c

Peasedown St John     14.7c      Anomaly       -3.02c.      

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Funnily enough, a rough estimation using the GFS 06z run has given me a CET to 20th of 16.5°C, right in the middle of the range I gave yesterday.

The scenario it shows, with a bit of a plume attempt and then low slow-moving to our west, is what I've had in mind as a plausible response to atmospheric angular momentum increasing from its current markedly negative state to something only a little below zero next week.

The ECM 00z was unsettling, though, with how it sustained a flatter polar jet and didn't have any sign of the long-signalled (by the extended EPS, to setup by mid-month) ridge development to our near-NE. That being a key part of a transition to a warmer but sometimes unstable regime for the UK. It also sustained high pressure across the Arctic more, with negative implications for the sea ice up there. 

So, I really hope that ECM run was an erroneous blip, as much for the Arctic as anything.

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First week gone and it's 13C (-2C) here

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Met Office Hadley         15.6c.       Anomaly      0.0c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                      15.27c      Anomaly      -1.09c

Netweather                   15.82c      Anomaly      -0.69c

Peasedown St John      14.8c       Anomaly      -2.95c   

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Met Office Hadley         15.4c        Anomaly         -0.3c Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                      15.12c      Anomaly        -1.34c

Netweather                   15.57c      Anomaly        -0.94c

Peasedown st john       14.95c      Anomaly        -2.95c

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If today's GFS ensembles are anything to go by, it's looking like there are only 3 people in this month's competition....

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