This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

The first half of 2020 has been close to record breaking in terms of average temperature. What does the second half of the year hold for us?

Historic CET summary for July

1971-2000 16.5C (30 years) 

1981-2010 16.7C (30 years) 

2000-2019 16.8C (last 20 years)

The warmest July in recent times was 2018 with 19.1C. The coolest was 2011 with 15.2C. The July CET has not been below 15.2C since 1988. Record CET for July is 19.7C in 2006.

Here is a chart of the July CET for all years since 1961

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output 

GFS 850s close to average but lots of scatter as early as 4 July. T2m below average initially and then generally close to average

GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM also close to average in terms of the ENS mean. But several runs going for something a bit warmer from around 5/6 July.

ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Not yet available

Thank You, GW. Prediction is in. Let us hope we see the sun a lot.

---

Mine’s in too!  June is behaving for me, so here’s hoping July will too because I really need to up my game!  I don’t want to spoil my record of finishing mid table!  

---

Prediction sent in. Thanks GW!

---

Very difficult as there is a very good chance of a significant heatwave in July in my view but not much sign of it yet.

 

---

Yeah I get ya - after the UKMO extended update I'm worrying that I've been too conservative with my guess. We'll see I guess!

---

Very difficult as there is a very good chance of a significant heatwave in July in my view but not much sign of it yet.

I always think the weather and output at month end, influences predictions the wrong way.  No sooner are predictions in, the output changes.  Will that be the case this month?  

---

I always think the weather and output at month end, influences predictions the wrong way.  No sooner are predictions in, the output changes.  Will that be the case this month?  

I bloody well hope so

---

Metcheck Today 14.80c   Difference  -1.59c.

---

 

I bloody well hope so

  Me too!

---

Met Office Hadley          17.0c        Anomaly          1.4c. provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                       15.27c      Anomaly           -1.29c

Netweather                    16.28c      Anomaly           -0.22c

Peasedown St John       13.7c        Anomaly          -4.1c.....

---

A consistently very warm year so far. Will July continue the trend?

 

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

---

A rather cool first half of the month coming up. 

The CET this year is tracking 2007 very closely. Unfortunately July and August 2007 were both very poor temperature wise. I fear this year may follow a similar pattern.

Estimated CET at 16 July is just 15.95C

Table 1

Table 2

A rather cool first half of the month coming up. 

The CET this year is tracking 2007 very closely. Unfortunately July and August 2007 were both very poor temperature wise. I fear this year may follow a similar pattern.

Estimated CET at 16 July is just 15.95C

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table 2

Cheers Global. I just wish you'd stop mentioning 2007 

---

Met Office Hadley         16.02c      Anomaly         0.8c Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      15.02c      Anomaly         -1.45c

Netweather                   15.55c      Anomaly         -0.96c

Peasedown St John      13.92c      Anomaly       -3.88c.    

---

One important difference with 2007 is rainfall - we got locked into a very wet pattern in early May which continued more or less to August , whereas this year May was bone dry and June has been (imby anyway) not especially wet.
The CET stats tell me both May and June were warmer than normal before the cold July, but honestly I don't remember them as pleasant weather months in any way !

One important difference with 2007 is rainfall - we got locked into a very wet pattern in early May which continued more or less to August , whereas this year May was bone dry and June has been (imby anyway) not especially wet.
The CET stats tell me both May and June were warmer than normal before the cold July, but honestly I don't remember them as pleasant weather months in any way !

There’s a big difference in rainfall here too.  We had floods in June 2007 from over 24 hours of constant heavy rain, the worst in my lifetime.  It wasn’t cold though and just as well, as we did a lot of paddling around.  May had been wet too.

This June has been dry apart from one tropical downpour in a thunder storm that lasted half an hour.  May was very dry, as was April this year.  We’re still only getting spits and spots this month, despite the amount of cloud, but not much sunshine either yet and a chilly breeze at times!   

---

I went for 0.5C below normal for this July. Reckon that was a good move.

 

---

Met Office Hadley          15.5c.       Anomaly       0.2c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       15.28c      Anomaly       -1.18c

Netweather                    15.43c      Anomaly       -1.08c

Peasedown St John       14.6c       Anomaly         -3.2c.      

---

Here are the July predictions

Table