14.9c for me. It looks like we've all gone fairly close to the mean.

Met Office Hadley       14.1c       Anomaly        0.2c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                    13.32c     Anomaly        -0.83c

Netweather                 13.91c     Anomaly        -0.2c

Peasedown St John     14.1c       Anomaly       -0.5c.  

HadCET 14,0 provisional to yesterday.

I just posted that on May instead. Duh!

HadCET 14,0 provisional to yesterday.

I just posted that on May instead. Duh!

I don’t know what day it is most days, every one’s the same!  The only thing I have to go on these days is Wednesday, because it’s bin day!  

Met Office Hadley           14.1c          Anomaly        0.3c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                        13.61c        Anomaly        -0.3c

Netweather                     14.09c        Anomaly        -0.1c

Peasedown St John        14.5c         Anomaly         -0.1c.    

What?  It’s not May?     

I don’t know what day it is most days, every one’s the same!  The only thing I have to go on these days is Wednesday, because it’s bin day!  

And every other day is like Groundhog Day.

Met Office Hadley           14.4c       Anomaly         0.5c Provisional to 16th

Metcheck                        13.76c     Anomaly         -0.39c

Netweather                     14.32c     Anomaly         0.13c

Peasedown St John        14.5c       Anomaly        -0.1c.     

Hmm, that provisional is probably a few tenths too high as usual.

Regardless, some potential for June to finish appreciably warmer than average despite a shortage of hot weather so far, depending on whether the GFS 06z or a few other 'lesser' models have the right idea with some widespread very warm to hot conditions for at least a few days next week.

ECM and its ensembles aren't keen on more than a SE England affair.

For what it's worth, the GFS 06z takes a rough CET estimate from 14.8°C as of 21st to 15.8°C as of 28th, where it stays to month's end. That's nearly 1.5°C above the long-term average - likely an extreme example of what may occur (four days in a row of 30-31°C shown for London, which would in reality be 2-3°C higher based on past experience!).

Met Office Hadley         14.5c       Anomaly        0.6c. Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                      13.86c     Anomaly        -0.29c

Netweather                   14.35c     Anomaly        0.26c

Peasedown St John     14.7c       Anomaly        0.1c.    

Met Office Hadley             14.5c        Anomaly      0.6c Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                          13.85c      Anomaly      -0.29c

Netweather                       14.36c      Anomaly      0.27c

Peasedown St John         14.64c      Anomaly       0.04c  

Met Office Hadley           14.5c         Anomaly      0.6c   Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                        13.84c       Anomaly      -0.30c

Netweather                     14.38c       Anomaly      0.29c

Peasedown St John       14.55c       Anomaly       -0.05c.  

We need a June CET of 15C or more for the first half of 2020 to be the second warmest first six months of the year on record. To be the warmest first half of the year on record we would need a CET of 16C or more which is most unlikely at this point.

Warmest first halves of the year in the CET series

2007  9.70C
2014  9.52C
1846  9.52C
1822  9.48C
2017  9.47C

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

Table

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

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Table

I don't think I've ever been at such an extreme end of the prediction range before, not that there's much of a range of predictions this month anyway. I may be bang on correct at this moment but next week's warm/hot spell will scupper any chance of me doing well this month.

Glad to see Moomin pitching in and putting his money where his mouth is :)

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

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Table

Thanks GW

A very warm final third of June to come. I haven't been doing my tracker this month as too busy.

However, based on the current CET being around 14.5C the forecast temperatures for the final 10 days of June suggest the CET will rise by around 1.3-1.4C compared to where is now. So a finishing CET between 15.5C and 16.0C looks likely.  Best guess at the moment would be 15.6C to 15.7C. So not quite as warm as June 2017 and June 2018 which both reached 16C. But not far off.

Hence the winner this month is likely to come from one of the top 4 in the prediction table. 

It also means we will likely get close to the record CET for the first six months of the year. Probably finishing just behind 2007.

Peak of the CET daily figures this week likely to be on Thursday. Very warm nights and days. My current estimate for Thursday is a CET of 21.75C. Current record for 25 June is 21.6C.

Absolute maximum temperature date records look unlikely this week but not impossible. From 23-28 June the date records are all held by 1976. Running from 32.2C on the 23rd to 35.6C on the 28th. Best chance of a record is on Thursday where the record is 33.5C. Current BBC forecast going for 32C on that day in London. So I think we probably fall a bit short.

Think CET rounds to 14.6°C now- the estimated daily values are in but the mean to 20th not in their table yet.

A mean CET for the last 10 days of 18° would give us a final of about 15.7 but then there are those downjustments.

Met Office Hadley         14.6c        Anomaly        0.6c  Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                      13.97c      Anomaly        -0.18c

Netweather                   14.48c      Anomaly        0.39cc

Peasedown St John      14.71c      Anomaly        0.11c.  

 

I don't think I've ever been at such an extreme end of the prediction range before, not that there's much of a range of predictions this month anyway. I may be bang on correct at this moment but next week's warm/hot spell will scupper any chance of me doing well this month.

Glad to see Moomin pitching in and putting his money where his mouth is :)

 

I concede though that I am way out on my CET guess.

A very warm final third of June to come. I haven't been doing my tracker this month as too busy.

However, based on the current CET being around 14.5C the forecast temperatures for the final 10 days of June suggest the CET will rise by around 1.3-1.4C compared to where is now. So a finishing CET between 15.5C and 16.0C looks likely.  Best guess at the moment would be 15.6C to 15.7C. So not quite as warm as June 2017 and June 2018 which both reached 16C. But not far off.

Hence the winner this month is likely to come from one of the top 4 in the prediction table. 

It also means we will likely get close to the record CET for the first six months of the year. Probably finishing just behind 2007.

Peak of the CET daily figures this week likely to be on Thursday. Very warm nights and days. My current estimate for Thursday is a CET of 21.75C. Current record for 25 June is 21.6C.

Absolute maximum temperature date records look unlikely this week but not impossible. From 23-28 June the date records are all held by 1976. Running from 32.2C on the 23rd to 35.6C on the 28th. Best chance of a record is on Thursday where the record is 33.5C. Current BBC forecast going for 32C on that day in London. So I think we probably fall a bit short.