Jetstream curling around the UK now gives way to a NW streak Wed 10th, itself creating a loop in Biscay Fri 12th while the main stream reverts to running N of the UK. By Wed 17th that has split in two , one branch each side of the UK Fri 19th, soon breaking up after which fragments of it appear all over the place.

GFS shows ridge of HP over Atlantic developing to Iceland by Thu 11th but leaving room for LP over France to affect S Britain. The LP remains while the ridge splits into two centres, Atlantic and Norwegian, by Wed 17th. Eventually the LP declines off Ireland Mon 22nd allowing HP and possibly v. warm weather to come in from the east.

GEFS in S shows temps recovering to near or above normal (not as high as yesterday) Thu 11th with significant rain for a few days; later on there is still some rain but fragmentary to Tue 23rd. Scotland similar but warming and rain a day or so earlier i.e. from Wed 10th

ECM similar but the Atlantic half of the HP is weaker, allowing the LP to be well out in the Atlantic by Wed 17th with the improvement in the weather arriving nearly a week earlier than in GFS

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An improved picture this morning more settled than yesterday. Temps should get to mid to high 20s in any sunshine from Friday. But with some thundery rain/thunderstorms to keep the farmers/gardener's happy.

 

Matt Hugo's latest tweet on the 12z ECM has gone one step further than I have and effectively written off the whole summer as a 2012 repeat because of the northern blocking it shows.

I don't buy this at all for what it's worth. The pattern is nothing like 2012, but I don't know how reliable Matt Hugo is with LRF projections.

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Matt Hugo's latest tweet on the 12z ECM has gone one step further than I have and effectively written off the whole summer as a 2012 repeat because of the northern blocking it shows.

I don't buy this at all for what it's worth. The pattern is nothing like 2012, but I don't know how reliable Matt Hugo is with LRF projections.

Not at all thankfully (like all long range forecasts/forecasters)  Just don't call him out on it, otherwise he might leave twitter like he left these forums 

Not a bad set of models this morning, especially given where we were yesterday.

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Matt Hugo's latest tweet on the 12z ECM has gone one step further than I have and effectively written off the whole summer as a 2012 repeat because of the northern blocking it shows.

I don't buy this at all for what it's worth. The pattern is nothing like 2012, but I don't know how reliable Matt Hugo is with LRF projections.

 

Even if we do see lots of northern blocking any wind from east will be a very warm one this year. That chart he posted shows a hot south easterly for the UK. 

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I’m impressed by how deep this easterly looks to be.

A proper Beast setup with high pressure anchored over Scandinavia , I’m sure we’d be salivating if it was January. 

As it happens, the upper air temperatures look to get very warm.

An easterly breeze is the general theme for the mid range this morning but we cannot rule out is cloud and some rain coming in off the North Sea , there is also plenty upstream too moving round the southern flank of the high.

We need to be aware that despite all the oranges on the chart there is still the risk of some cloud and rain coming in from the east, especially as the flow looks to be quite strong. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_4.png

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

An interesting setup and definitely need to look at the more specific parameters rather than assume “warm and sunny” just from looking at the SLP charts. 

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Even if we do see lots of northern blocking any wind from east will be a very warm one this year. That chart he posted shows a hot south easterly for the UK. 

He's also not writing off the summer - he's confirmed this on Twitter.

 

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The easterlies certainly looks impressive if verifies.

With the current chart output, I think there'll be some thundery outbreaks, especially in the S, both from direct land convection & medium level imports from Europe, the latter occurring in warm fronts. If the latter occurs, could turn very warm away from NE & E coasts.

Interesting times ahead.

When comparing yesterday's and today's 00z GEFS (London) I noticed the change to having many more rainfall spikes shown from midweek onwards.

 

And before anyone says anything, I know GFS is wetter. 😊

That must be why it appears on wetterzentrale.de then...

OK, I'll get my coat...

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The easterlies certainly looks impressive if verifies.

With the current chart output, I think there'll be some thundery outbreaks, especially in the S, both from direct land convection & medium level imports from Europe, the latter occurring in warm fronts. If the latter occurs, could turn very warm away from NE & E coasts.

Interesting times ahead.

Yep, on GFS at least there could be some large rainfall totals in the next couple of weeks, probably from home grown showers/storms. Looks good growing weather as well and none too cold. 

 

Yep, on GFS at least there could be some large rainfall totals in the next couple of weeks, probably from home grown showers/storms. Looks good growing weather as well and none too cold. 

Fully expecting a lot of rain, but potentially hit and miss and looking at the Ensembles, increasingly hot and humid too. Could be in for an exciting few week of thundery activity.

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Fully expecting a lot of rain, but potentially hit and miss and looking at the Ensembles, increasingly hot and humid too. Could be in for an exciting few week of thundery activity.

After a wet start to the year where my garden was under water, now there are so many large cracks around. If you dropped your phone in one of them, that would be it as these go down several feet already. Could do with rain, but not too much. We seem to have weather that equalises over time over here, but some extremes as well!

Just seen the f/cast for the week ahead and been reading your predictions on here...what a load of tosh for us here on the east coast, 2 days of Northerlies with showers,then Easterlies, then Norterlies again with heavy rain followed by a northern blocking set-up with Easterlies again...!!! so our temps are going to be well below average, we'll get intermittent sea mists rolling in and showers forming as and when...be fine for all you southerners and westies, warm sun with a light breeze while we'll be in big coats and the central heating will be on, as it has been for the past 5 days...!!! though it was June not January...!!! after a mild, snowless winter the least i would expect was a fine/warm summer...the UKs weather has gone to pot...

I must say considering I was expecting a chilly weekend I was surprised how warm and humid it felt at lunchtime with the temperature nudging 20C. Not bad for a northerly.

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I must say considering I was expecting a chilly weekend I was surprised how warm and humid it felt at lunchtime with the temperature nudging 20C. Not bad for a northerly.

Indeed - certainly very nice until mid-afternoon.

New low dropping into the current broad trough and getting cut off to the south eventually. Humid easterlies and thunder risk in a few days. Doesn't get much better 

Icon wants to push the core of the trough down to the Spanish border by Friday.

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Hoping the 0Z GFS has gone off on one, as it keeps it quite unsettled.

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Hoping the 0Z GFS has gone off on one, as it keeps it quite unsettled.

ECM, on the other hand, drops the trough through then looks to settle down quite nicely. 

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Almost nothing but vile easterly muck on the output this morning.

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Not much cheer in the 10-day outlook charts, either for temp or rainfall http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 Week 2  in the pptn charts is what I'd call a real European monsoon!

GFS - trough of LP coming in from the NW, working its way S-wards over Wales Thu 11th and Iberia Sun 15th with E-ly winds generally for next week but warmth seems to be advected N-wards over Norway; the LP returns N-wards to Ireland Thu 18th and then over England Sun 21st with winds becoming more NE-ly. Just a hint of the Azores High making a re-appearance at end of run on Wed 24th - but didn't we see that modelled a week ago for earlier delivery?

GEFS - remains optimistic over temps after Thu 11th with mean of runs a little above average (though the op run is a much cooler outlier) but rainfall totals have been ramped up, some around the 11th then some big totals for the S Coast Mon 15th -  Wed 17th, and not dying away much after that. Scotland and the N of England have moderate rainfall throughout.

ECM - one for the optimists this morning. After taking the LP down into Iberia earlier (Fri 13th) and deeper, it brings back HP more quickly with ridge across Scotland Thu 18th, not however preventing troughs across S England which look rather thundery

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Almost nothing but vile easterly muck on the output this morning.

 

Easterlys are usually good for us in the west for sunny weather.  If theres a cold breeze, that will be easily tempered by the hot sun.  At its strongest now.

 

We just need clear skies here and temps are easily locally 20+ yesterday a good example.

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