2003 was a very good summer

A quick look at some random historical records for Cornwall suggests July 2003 was a very wet month with relatively low sunshine hours followed by a big improvement in August and September.

GFS - HP over UK moves to Norway by Sun 31st and at first links to a new HP over the Atlantic with light E-lies, but the Norwegian HP then collapses allowing strong N-lies esp Fri 5th and Tue 9th, the latter developing into depression over UK. By Sat 13th the HP is restored along with more summery weather for UK

GEFS - matches this, temps above seasonal norm to Thu 4th, then colder but recovering by Thu 11th. Bits and pieces of rain around from the 4th, dry until then. Similar for all the UK.

ECM - similar to GFS, but N-lies placed a little further away over the N Sea. Yesterday's odd-looking LP with direct hit on Scotland has gone

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This is looking similar to the last northerly we had earlier this month. A spell of temperatures below average and a showery interlude with falling pressure, with a gradual return to average or above average temperatures and drier weather thereafter as high pressure re-asserts. I expect we'll firm up on this in the coming days with the main ideas centred around:

1) how much of a direct hit we get from the northerly
2) the length of time it takes to return to average/above average temperatures
3) whether any significant rainfall will happen in that time.

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I think this year is closely resembling 2019 so far in my neck of the woods. Very dry and warm with beginning of month temperature dips.  

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Just one run, but 12z GFS looks far better. A very brief cooler spell and some much needed rain in the southeast then high pressure builds back in strongly. Hopefully a new trend.

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For the far SE of England we have to go all the way back to 2012 for me to class the summer as below average.

Model watching these days in summer isn't about looking for windows of good weather its about looking for a thundery plume and the subsequent cooler and briefly more unsettled patterns that follows as and when they occur. When they do occur they seldom last more than 3 or 4 days.

I generally tend to class May and September as summer months these days as well.

Back to the models its looking as though we have another 5-7 days of this beautiful set up before a 'potential' dip.

Its a climate these days more akin to that of central France from my childhood 30-40 years ago.

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For the far SE of England we have to go all the way back to 2012 for me to class the summer as below average.

Model watching these days in summer isn't about looking for windows of good weather its about looking for a thundery plume and the subsequent cooler and briefly more unsettled patterns that follows as and when they occur. When they do occur they seldom last more than 3 or 4 days.

I generally tend to class May and September as summer months these days as well.

Back to the models its looking as though we have another 5-7 days of this beautiful set up before a 'potential' dip.

Its a climate these days more akin to that of central France from my childhood 30-40 years ago.

Excellent analogy there Steve - As to this year - This spring has been fabulous and this May has been in a class of its own.

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Jetstream all over the place except the UK until Wed 3rd when a NW flow sets in across the UK, sometimes fragmentary, and finally tis wraps around and encircles ti UK Wed 10th to Sun 14th. More unsettled in the longterm?

GFS - current HP moves off to Norway by Mon 1st, slightly cooler E-lies in the S but very warm air entrained up the W coast and well into Scotland. Norwegian HP collapses Thu 4th which with new HP on Atlantic gives northerlies as forecast yesterday (also BBC WFTWA, who are normally reluctant to go that far ahead, so pretty firm forecast) N'lies continue for some days, stronger and weaker by turns,  with LP well established over the N Sea Tue 9th, drifting W and filling over the whole of the UK Sun 14th. Showery and cool esp the E coast?

GEFS for the S just above norm this week, cooler later but not far from norm. More rain about than forecast yesterday, starting around Thu 4th and with occasional big spikes. For Scotland similar but temp profile more pronounced and rainfall more continuous from Wed 3rd but less spiky after initial day or two.

ECM - similar to GFS but with added bonus of LP over Iberia Fri 5th  and deeper LP over Norway.drawing the N flow further S.  I have to go now before ECM loads for days after Fri,  so will edit later to see if LP gets down into the N Sea. EDIT ECM prefers a 2-centre solution, one centre over norway, one in Biscay, linked by a trough across the SE of the UK on Mon 8th

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Azores high pushing in nicely day 10 this morning on the ECM. Probably a best case scenario after a brutal northerly for the time of year

 

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I generally tend to class May and September as summer months these days as well.

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Yes, it seems to me that the seasons (down in this corner of the BI at least) can be classified as:

May-September is summer.

October-March is autumn.

April is all four seasons jumbled randomly.

 

And on the models...

The pattern change in early June shown on GEFS(London) bringing some rainfall has now been shown consistently for some time.  Bring it on!

 

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Azores high pushing in nicely day 10 this morning on the ECM. Probably a best case scenario after a brutal northerly for the time of year

 

Pushing in rather reluctantly to my way of thinking - I wouldn't bet the farm on it

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 And on the models...

The pattern change in early June shown on GEFS(London) bringing some rainfall has now been shown consistently for some time.  Bring it on!

 

As long as it doesn't set the pattern for the next 3 months. Going on recent 2-3 month weather patterns, this is a distinct possibility. 

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interesting do I detect a flip away from the cold plunge.

 

 

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interesting do I detect a flip away from the cold plunge.

 

 

Don't think so mate. Maybe not as potent as first feared, but a definite switch to cooler and more unsettled is on the cards. How long for is anyone's guess, but I don't believe it will be for too long.

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We’ve had a weird run of several days with the majority of GFS and at least half the ECM op runs being big cold outliers compared with ensembles. I wonder why. Could be chance of course, but it’s happened very consistently.

This GFS 06 and 12z both really marked examples.

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ECM 12z also says northerly what northerly plot thickens!

 

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ECM back on the northerly theme this morning with quite a cold plunge around 6/7 June. (A couple of days later than first mooted.)

GFS less keen on the cold air with more of a glancing blow. Still looks like there will be at least a brief blip in the endless summer next week.

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Today's review a bit late due to need to go to pharmacy & collect medicines. So...

GFS - Continuing with HP over Norway and linked to another cell over the Atlantic  Tue 2nd (but with some LP from France creeping into the SE) and then the latter HP collapses, replaced by LP and a N-ly flow down the N Sea to connect with the abovementioned LP by now over Spain - very much like yesterday's ECM. The N-lies continue on and off to Sat 13th, with the UK on the fringe of mild air coming round the Atlantic high and cold air from N Norway. A bit of a toss-up as to which will prevail on any given day but go west for the best weather. After that, the Atlantic and N European HPs re-connect for generally fine weather over the UK and a deep LP steams across past Iceland.

GEFS - for the S, warm to Sat 6th (more so than yesterday) steep drop to Mon 8th (mean  of runs about 2C below norm, control much cooler)rising back to norm by the end of that week and finishing well above average. Scotland similar but more scatter; mean is average, not warm, and no doubt about the cool spell. Rain in most areas from Wed 3rd continuing to end of run, irregular distribution and no prolonged wet spell.

ECM - develops in the same way as GFS to Fri 5th but the N-ly following is stronger and closer to the UK; howeverthe N-ly gives up in short order, and the ECM model having abandoned the idea of an Iberian LP, instead produces LP near Iceland on Tue 9th with light NW-lies. A sharp cotrast with GFS at this point

 

Just for interest, there's still some snow cover in Siberia - but not a lot

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

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On the subject of snow cover and also the ECM run...

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/snow-depth/20200606-1200z.html 

Unlikely, I would say!

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Pretty unsettled and cooler across the board this morning from about 4th June. How long it lasts and how much rain we get still to be decided. But it looks like at least 5 days of unsettled weather coming up.

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