Wednesday 27 May - Friday 5 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Saturday 6 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 27 May - Friday 5 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Saturday 6 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

If GFS verifies, this will quickly be dropped for more unsettled outlook.

A big if as I'm sure you know  The Met Office aren't quite that reactionary, and all the better for it. The 06z was an outlier in its latter stages with the mean looking OK.

Thursday 28 May - Saturday 6 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Sunday 7 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 28 May - Saturday 6 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Sunday 7 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

At the present time they may as well template these and put "Temperatures....above average".

​Western Australia prepares for 'once-in-a-decade' storm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52787152

​

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often warm and dry but turning more showery later

_________________________________

Saturday 23 May – Sunday 31 May

Windy and wet in the north, then drier and warmer

This weekend begins on an unseasonably wet and windy note in the north - the result of a deep area of low pressure tracking just to the north of Scotland. With trees in full-leaf, strong winds across northwest Scotland on Saturday presents a risk of disruption to travel and services. Northwest Scotland will also see very high rainfall totals this weekend, with showers and longer spells of heavy rain throughout Saturday and into Sunday.

Meanwhile, further south, Sunday will turn increasingly fine, with winds easing and some sunshine later in the day. This heralds the quick return of high pressure from the southwest, and high pressure will largely be in charge for much of this week. England and Wales can expect some dry and sunny days, and temperatures will climb into the mid-20s Celsius once more. Whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland will also see some dry and warm days this week, areas of cloud and rain look set to move in from the west at times.

There is a chance that rain could also reach further south and east later this week, but it seems more likely that high pressure will block any spells of wet weather reaching into England and Wales. With much of the southeast of England recording little to no rainfall so far this spring, the lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Monday 1 June – Sunday 7 June

Chance of rain in the north, otherwise dry

The start of June marks the beginning of the meteorological summer, and the strength of the sun will continue to build ahead of the longest day of the year later in the month.

High pressure is expected to build across the North Atlantic Ocean and extend eastwards into the British Isles for much of this week, bringing plenty of dry and fine weather. However, low pressure still expected to the north of the UK, across Iceland and Scandinavia, and will may threaten the north of the UK with rain and breezier conditions at times. That said, any rain is unlikely to be very prolonged or widespread, and rain may stay entirely confined to more northern parts of the UK.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the temperatures for the week. A northwesterly flow may be in place earlier in the week, which would allow cooler air mass to feed in, bringing a few days of temperatures below the seasonal average. This is unlikely to be anything unbenign though, and it will likely trend warmer later in the week, as high pressure continues to build overhead. There is even a chance later in the week that a more southerly flow will develop over the British Isles, and give some very warm days.

Monday 8 June – Sunday 21 June

Warm but turning more showery at times

Heading into mid-June, it still looks as though high pressure will often be near to the UK. As a result, we can expect strong and warm sunshine at times. With warmth spreading in from the near-continent at times, some very warm days seem likely. However, it looks as though high pressure areas will gradually move a little further north and east. Over England and Wales, this should occasionally allow showery weather to spread in from the south. In any warmer and humid weather, we could even see some thunderstorms. Further north, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there is a greater likelihood of drier than average conditions persisting.

The main uncertainty regarding this period is exactly where the high pressure will become centred. There are chances that the high stays directly over the UK and this would lead to a continuation of the unusually dry and settled weather we have been experiencing throughout spring. After such a dry few months, this scenario would lead to extremely dry soils and pastures across the country.

Further ahead

We will have a closer look at the potentially very warm conditions possible in mid-June, and discuss whether we can expect any meaningful rainfall throughout the next month. Could we be looking at the start of a drought for some?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 29 May - Sunday 7 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Monday 8 Jun - Monday 22 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 30 May - Monday 8 Jun

Much of central and southeast England should see a good deal of dry and settled weather next weekend with plenty of sunshine, though a little breezy. Temperatures will generally be very warm, but there is the risk of some thunderstorms breaking out at times. Cloud and outbreaks of rain seem most likely for Scotland and some other northern and western areas, where it will probably feel cooler. Looking ahead, there appears to be a shift to a more unsettled regime at first. Cloud and spells of rain may spread to most parts of the UK, but will predominately remain in the northwest. Temperatures should return to around average and may go slightly below in places.

Tuesday 9 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 31 May - Tuesday 9 Jun

A fine and sunny day for many on Sunday but the chance of seeing a few heavy showers in the north. Heading into June it looks likely that there will be a continuation of settled weather at first with most areas staying dry although the chance of seeing some rain or showers increases, especially in the north and west. Very warm initially but temperatures probably trending back closer to average. Confidence lowers during early June but signals show a shift to more changeable weather with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. Despite the spells of wetter weather there will be some drier and brighter interludes for most. Temperatures likely closer to around average for many but perhaps staying warmer for some across the south.

Wednesday 10 Jun - Wednesday 24 Jun

The start of this period will see a continuation of more changeable conditions with spells of dry and sunny weather interspersed with showers or some longer spells of rain. Showers or rain are most likely to be seen in the northwest of the UK and they may be accompanied by strong winds at times also. Through mid to late June overall drier and warmer than average weather looks to be more favourable in the south than wetter and cooler conditions. Northern parts however will likely see temperatures sticking around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Ridiculous flip flopping from a redundant Met Office. Honestly, what is the point of these MRFs. They change pretty much on a daily basis. They flip and flop as wildly as the models. The constant changes means in theory they can't be wrong, because one way or another they cover all bases.

Monday 1 Jun - Wednesday 10 Jun

The start of June will see a continuation of the current settled weather with most places staying dry and sunny. However, there is an increasing chance of seeing some rain or showers at times, especially across northern and western parts. It will be very warm initially but temperatures are likely to begin to return to normal towards the middle of the period. Towards the end of the period there may be a shift to more changeable conditions, with an increased chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. The showers or spells of rain are likley to be most frequent across the northwest and possibly accompanied by strong winds.. Any wetter periods are likely to be interspersed with some drier and brighter weather.

Thursday 11 Jun - Thursday 25 Jun

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of more changeable conditions with spells of dry and sunny weather interspersed with showers or some longer spells of rain. Showers or rain are most likely to be seen in the northwest of the UK and they may be accompanied by strong winds at times too. Through mid to late June, overall drier and warmer than average weather looks to be more favourable in the south than wetter and cooler conditions. Northern parts however will likely see temperatures sticking around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Ridiculous flip flopping from a redundant Met Office. Honestly, what is the point of these MRFs. They change pretty much on a daily basis. They flip and flop as wildly as the models. The constant changes means in theory they can't be wrong, because one way or another they cover all bases.

Which is why it is pointless to make definitive, provocative even, black & white statements about the weather in 10 days time or more.  

My heart drops when I see northerlies predicted in summer, but they are often overplayed and even redirected by the time that period arrives.

Tuesday 2 Jun - Thursday 11 Jun

The start of June will see a continuation of the current settled weather with most places staying dry and sunny. However, there is an increasing chance of seeing some rain or showers at times, especially across northern and western parts. It will be very warm initially but temperatures are likely to begin to return to normal towards the middle of the period. Towards the end of the period there may be a shift to more changeable conditions, with an increased chance of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts. The showers or spells of rain are likely to be most frequent across the northwest and possibly accompanied by strong winds. Any wetter periods are likely to be interspersed with some drier and brighter weather.

Friday 12 Jun - Friday 26 Jun

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of more changeable conditions with spells of dry and sunny weather interspersed with showers or some longer spells of rain. Showers or rain are most likely to be seen in the northwest of the UK and they may be accompanied by strong winds at times too. Through mid to late June, overall drier and warmer than average weather looks to be more favorable in the south than wetter and cooler conditions. Northern parts however will likely see temperatures sticking around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 3 Jun - Friday 12 Jun

Following the prolonged dry, warm weather in May into the start of June, it will have become be a good deal cooler and more changeable by the start of this period. The first week of June will be generally rather cool and breezy with sunshine and showers. The most frequent showers are likely in the north and east, perhaps with some longer spells of rain. The drier conditions will probably be in the south and west. Through the following week there is considerable uncertainty, but it looks as if temperatures should return to nearer normal. High pressure may also build into northwestern parts of the UK bringing more widely drier, brighter conditions to northern and western areas. However there could be some further spells of rain or showers anywhere.

Saturday 13 Jun - Saturday 27 Jun

Following a more changeable period, by the middle of June more settled conditions will probably be established again across many parts. The period to the end of June should be generally drier than average. However, some more changeable spells are likely which, as is usual for the time of year, could bring showers and thunderstorms. It is also likely to be warmer than average, more particularly in the south. Nearer normal temperatures more likely in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

June will be dry and warm after a brief cool spell

_________________________________

Saturday 30 May – Sunday 7 June

Dry and warm at first, then wetter, cooler

This weekend will see a continuation of the dry, sunny, and warm weather across the UK that has lasted all week. However, as we head into the first week of June, the weather pattern is likely to change for a while. On Monday and Tuesday, a weak cold front will try and reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing some cooler air, cloudier skies, and some patches of rain. Further south and east it will stay dry, mostly sunny, and warmer than normal, although sunshine will become a bit hazy. High pressure is expected to amplify in the Atlantic through the working week, and this will help deepen an area of low pressure over Scandinavia. The result for the UK will be a development of a cold front and a strong northerly wind that will push in from the north starting Thursday.

Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England will see some outbreaks of rain and cooler, windier weather on Thursday, but further south it will stay relatively calm and warm. The delay in the front on Thursday will bring a risk of a few thunderstorms for the far south of England as they drift across the Channel from France. By Friday and into the weekend, however, the cold front will sweep into Central Europe and bring cooler, windier weather for the whole country. Some strong wind gusts are possible on northern and eastern coasts, and while this weekend we will see temperatures widely in the mid-twenties, by next Saturday we may struggle to get above 15C!

Monday 8 June – Sunday 14 June

Risk of showers in the west, turning dry and fine

The cool, wet spell from the first week of June will continue for a time into the second week, so some showers, brisk northerly winds, and chilly nights are likely. This is unlikely to last for too long though, and by the end of the working week we expect high pressure to build back in from the west and bring drier, warmer, and sunnier weather, especially in the Southwest. However, this does come with a rather large caveat: the exact timing of the high pressure system's arrival. We expect it around midweek, making the second week of June a bit of a week of two halves.

Shower, breezy, and cool to start with the second half being warmer than normal, dry, and sunny. There is a risk that the high is delayed in the arrival and the bulk of the week ends up on the cooler side of average with plenty of showers. But, at the moment, this is just a risk and not the preferred scenario. Confidence is medium mainly due to uncertainty on the day-to-day specifics of when the high builds in. We have high confidence that the high will build in at some point.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 28 June

Mostly dry and warm, particularly for the south

Once the high pressure ridge builds in from the Atlantic, it will likely stick around for most of the rest of June and give us some similar weather to what we've just seen through May.
Most of the UK will be sunny, warmer than normal, and dry for much of the second half of June. Scotland will be the main exception here and may well see a few outbreaks of rain at times from very weak fronts. The main risk to this scenario is that high pressure instead builds strongly to our north and northwest, perhaps near Greenland and Iceland.

This would let low pressure systems near Spain and Portugal move into the UK from the south and bring some thundery downpours. This would, however, also bring in some hot Mediterranean air, so it would still be a warmer than normal pattern. As such, confidence is a bit higher for a warmer than normal June, but medium on the dryness and sunshine. Sunnier summer months will see a sharp increase in the UV levels across the UK as we head into June, but the drier weather may help reduce pollen levels a bit.

Further ahead

Will June continue on much as May did after a briefly cool start to summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

This BBC long range forecast is well written and informative. The Met Office equivalent is lacking in grammar and full of contradictions.

The BBC's long ranger has definitely improved.

I see Matt Hugo has "done a Moomin" and pretty much written off summer 2020. He reckons it's going to be pretty bad and getting worse.

Where does he say that? I'm looking at his Twitter now and there's nothing of the sort?