Well, a good news story in The Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hospital-admissions-fall-to-lowest-level-of-coronavirus-crisis-f06w0rlt6

"The number of people seriously ill with coronavirus has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since the start of the lockdown.

...

Stephen Powis, NHS England’s medical director, pointed to figures showing 9,953 people in hospital with coronavirus on Tuesday, the first time this had been below 10,000 since March 29, the week the lockdown began. In mid-April more than 20,000 people were in hospital with coronavirus.

He said that hospitals were “seeing fewer and fewer daily admissions, showing the benefits of social distancing”, with 637 people admitted on Monday with coronavirus, down from more than 3,000 at the start of April.

Professor Powis said that the trend on deaths was “consistently downwards, and that will continue to fall as long as we all continue to comply with the instructions that we’ve been given around social distancing”.

 

..."

Relax, get the schools back, get back to normal.

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Seconded.

Pretty sure it also said some studies have shown that those with low vitamin d are more prone to getting respiratory infections. Seems reasonable to infer that you're at a greater risk of catching covid-19 too if you have low vitamin d levels, although I guess that's not the same as saying normal levels give you extra protection - more that having normal levels may be required to have a healthy and normally functioning immune system.

It was also suggested that vitamin d plays a role in helping to regulate the immune system making it less likely to go in to overdrive. Again if true it makes sense that this would mean those with very low levels are more likely to suffer the serious complications that can occur and potentially more likely to die as a result.

Anecdotally I suffer from low vitamin d levels, which I found out a few years back after I was persistently ill for about 3 months one winter and went to the docs assuming I'd picked up a virus and couldn't shake it off. After they did bloods the only thing noticeable was I had very low vitamin D. I've taken supplements ever since and haven't had the same levels of winter illness, although I am still prone to getting run down from time to time, which I take as a sign to up my dosage for a few weeks. The docs seem a little 'meh' about the whole thing, as I like to have a blood test done to check vit D levels so I can adjust the amount I'm taking and they generally make me feel like I'm being a pain and wasting their time. Given how infrequently I visit the docs seems a shame that what could be a preventative action is discouraged and they'd rather wait until I get ill to decide maybe something should be done.

 

 

 

There has been an awful lot of research which indicates a correlation between low vit D levels and an increased risk of bacterial respiratory infections. I'm not sure this translates into a greater risk of contracting C-19, but perhaps a greater risk of having more severe symptoms as the lungs are already weakened?

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Here's another fine mess you got us into, Boris!

Covid-19: Britain has higher rate of excess deaths than anywhere in Europe

Britain has the highest proportion of excess deaths in Europe, early comparisons between countries suggest.

About 55,000 more people have died in the UK this year than would be expected based on the average for the period over the past five years. That means that as of May 8 the UK had had 67 per cent more deaths than usual.

However, a quarter were not recorded as resulting from Covid-19. Experts have said that excess deaths as a whole are therefore the best method to compare the impact of the virus between countries. It will capture coronavirus deaths that have not been recorded as such as well as any that result from a lack of access to other healthcare.

There are still pitfalls, however. Not all countries release data as quickly as the UK, and some base their figures on samples of regions.

Belgium appears to have had the next highest proportion of excess deaths at 9,000 by May 3, which is 57 per cent higher than expected, according to data collated by the Financial Times.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-19-britain-has-higher-rate-of-excess-deaths-than-anywhere-in-europe-jd3fw3fg9

 

 

 

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A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.

— Kristian G. Andersen (@K_G_Andersen) May 20, 2020

What are the figures for the UK?

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easyJet are resuming flights on June 15th from the following airports

• Gatwick


• Bristol


• Birmingham


• Liverpool


• Newcastle


• Edinburgh


• Glasgow


• Inverness


• Belfast

The routes will be within the UK and to France

 

What are the figures for the UK?

Nobody knows, as they still haven't rolled out antibody tests.

(I'd be surprised if there were more than a few thousand done so far across the whole of the UK).

Relax, get the schools back, get back to normal.

No thanks, not until we catch up with the rest of Europe wrt new cases. Thousands a day is still far too many!

 

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Nobody knows, as they still haven't rolled out antibody tests.

(I'd be surprised if there were more than a few thousand done so far across the whole of the UK).

 

That's my suspicion too. Why on earth the NHS, PHE and government aren't being taken to task over antibody testing is beyond me. I can only assume it's a combination of useless journalists and the nodding dog syndrome.  

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Experts have said that excess deaths as a whole are therefore the best method to compare the impact of the virus between countries. 

 

The Government's science advisors have already said this in their press conferences.

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Latest from my School Looks like year 6 not returning 1st June due to circumstance of must prioritise the maximum offer for Early Years and Key Stage 1 children ahead of Year 6.

 We have now collated the data from the parent survey and it would appear that our numbers of Key Worker and Vulnerable children will be significantly greater than anticipated (60 children and rising). Coupled with this, the Local Authority has been in talks with the DfE and have now changed the guidance so that schools must prioritise the maximum offer for Early Years and Key Stage 1 children ahead of Year 6. This means that logistically, I cannot make any offer to Year 6 at present (180 EYFS and Year 1). We can offer four days to Key Worker and Vulnerable children and three days to all children in Early Years and Year 1. This has been driven by careful risk assessment especially with regard to the high number of Key Worker and Vulnerable children compared to other schools, then staff and classrooms and the need to keep the online provision going for all other children. The school will remain closed on Wednesdays so it can be thoroughly cleaned each week and so that all staff can have sufficient time to plan, make welfare calls for their class if needed, and to maintain the online provision for the many children who will not be in school. IF...the phased reopening happens on the 1st June 2020, Year Reception and Year 1 will return to school at staggered times and in classes of no more than 15 and no more than 10 in classes where children need to be seated at desks. Year 6 will not return at present. Two metre social distancing for children, it is accepted, cannot be strictly adhered to;

 We have now collated the data from the parent survey and it would appear that our numbers of Key Worker and Vulnerable children will be significantly greater than anticipated (60 children and rising).

Interesting! My secondary school went down to just one pupil before the VE day weekend. After sending out more reminders to parents, it went back up to 8 and, yesterday, 11 pupils. Still a far cry from the usual 1650 though!

Our head also sent this update to us all this morning. Work packs are used for pupils without Internet access at home.

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And I had marked out all year 6 classes  not sure if that means a specialist clean on Wednesdays if it is that’s going to cost a fortune also current cleaning staff are not contracted to do those hours or trained or who would wish carry out a specialist clean.

I hope head has thought about that will have a word later.

 

 

 

Interesting! My secondary school went down to just one pupil before the VE day weekend. After sending out more reminders to parents, it went back up to 8 and, yesterday, 11 pupils. Still a far cry from the usual 1650 though!

Our head also sent this update to us all this morning. Work packs are used for pupils without Internet access at home.

Work packs look like they will now be used until the end of the academic year, so could staff who feel they are able to do some work on them please contact their Subject Leader so that they can share out some of the tasks.

 

Finally, and perhaps the most important notice, the government still has not published the 'models' and 'further guidance' for secondary schools that they told us they would be publishing.  Anything that you read in the press, or see online, is based on the documents that have been released for primary schools.

 

I'd like to reassure you all, once the government does release its guidance for secondary schools we will consult with you all about our plans and make sure everything is centered on the health and safety of our pupils and our staff. We are not expecting the guidance for Year 10 and Year 12 pupils to look like the primary guidance.  I will, of course, give you more information about this as soon as I have it.

Apparently we've gone for a centralised app database because our testing system is one of the slowest to return results in the developed world. Consequently the risk of fraud and false reporting is increased.

This needs to be flagged up and investigated. Shocking if true.

But I was told by someone it was "world beating" 

---

 

It maybe true that minority groups are less likely for cultural reasons to stick to social distancing rules. Grandparents especially, who are respected in the family unit, would want to hug their grandchildren regardless of the official rules

But round here, the white chavs in the estates are also breaking the rules and mixing and having parties

Same here. Neighbours have been having the lot round, three generations since they decided the lockdown was over last week. Oddly the majority that I have seen round here wearing masks outside and in cars have been black and Asian. Seems a bit over cautious to me but no doubt they think they are at greater risk from what they have read and heard in the media.

---

What happens if a one pings in a school or factory surly a official procedure response should be written and to  including a official confirmed covid case response within a closed environment?

quote=fairweather;1217814]

 

But I was told by someone it was "world beating" 

 

Seconded.

Pretty sure it also said some studies have shown that those with low vitamin d are more prone to getting respiratory infections. Seems reasonable to infer that you're at a greater risk of catching covid-19 too if you have low vitamin d levels, although I guess that's not the same as saying normal levels give you extra protection - more that having normal levels may be required to have a healthy and normally functioning immune system.

It was also suggested that vitamin d plays a role in helping to regulate the immune system making it less likely to go in to overdrive. Again if true it makes sense that this would mean those with very low levels are more likely to suffer the serious complications that can occur and potentially more likely to die as a result.

Anecdotally I suffer from low vitamin d levels, which I found out a few years back after I was persistently ill for about 3 months one winter and went to the docs assuming I'd picked up a virus and couldn't shake it off. After they did bloods the only thing noticeable was I had very low vitamin D. I've taken supplements ever since and haven't had the same levels of winter illness, although I am still prone to getting run down from time to time, which I take as a sign to up my dosage for a few weeks. The docs seem a little 'meh' about the whole thing, as I like to have a blood test done to check vit D levels so I can adjust the amount I'm taking and they generally make me feel like I'm being a pain and wasting their time. Given how infrequently I visit the docs seems a shame that what could be a preventative action is discouraged and they'd rather wait until I get ill to decide maybe something should be done

  I thought that video was excellent and very easy to understand, so you right on all counts.  The importance of Vitamin D has long since been accepted and more recently deficiency has been linked to SADs.  I’ve never had the need to take supplements as my diet has so far provided all I need.  I’m very conscious of diet and increase the amount of oily fish, mushrooms etc we have in winter, to make up for the lack of sunshine, although we tend to have two winter holidays in the sun.  

I wouldn’t hesitate to take supplements if my health changed and I think you’re right to push for blood tests.  We all need to take responsibility for our own health and well-being!  

---

Well, a good news story in The Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hospital-admissions-fall-to-lowest-level-of-coronavirus-crisis-f06w0rlt6

"The number of people seriously ill with coronavirus has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since the start of the lockdown.

...

Stephen Powis, NHS England’s medical director, pointed to figures showing 9,953 people in hospital with coronavirus on Tuesday, the first time this had been below 10,000 since March 29, the week the lockdown began. In mid-April more than 20,000 people were in hospital with coronavirus.

He said that hospitals were “seeing fewer and fewer daily admissions, showing the benefits of social distancing”, with 637 people admitted on Monday with coronavirus, down from more than 3,000 at the start of April.

Professor Powis said that the trend on deaths was “consistently downwards, and that will continue to fall as long as we all continue to comply with the instructions that we’ve been given around social distancing”.

 

..."

Relax, get the schools back, get back to normal.

I think there is a different plausible reason to this. The Zoe app has been showing a plateau and slight increase in the number of people with symptoms for 10 days now. A steady quarter of a million with symptoms.  This ties up to some extent with Government data and is completely logical. This could be because the vulnerable and elderly are either dead and/or adhering well to the lock down still. The number of fitter and younger people are mixing more and going to work. So they are catching it but by nature of the disease they will be less severe so not needing hospital admission or dying. So we have to be very careful - the admissions and deaths are clearly falling but even the government data shows infection rates are high so it is not safe for the elderly and compromised to drop their guard and the government needs to emphasise this.

---

 

But I was told by someone it was "world beating" 

I'd be happy with a contact tracing programme fit for purpose. Where has this "world beating" nonsense come from? I suppose a lot of the plebs wouldn't know Adam from Eve and this flag waving crap sounds good to them. They'll automatically assume Britain has the best system in place. Frankly, it's demeaning for our country to be treated in such a cavalier fashion by the leadership.  

---

Throughout April I was saying that reliable antigen mass testing studies (Austria, Iceland, Germany etc.) were showing tiny percentages of their populations to be infected. There were at the time some early antibody testing studies which were showing much larger percentages, but those were unreliable tests with low specificity  (too many false positives).

It was dismaying to hear at the time pundits and even some scientists speculating about 20% or even 30% etc. Once again this shows that any notion of herd immunity without a vaccination was a catastrophic misjudgment and the correct approach all along was early and aggressive intervention in order to contain the epidemic and buy time until the possible vaccination.

 

A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.

— Kristian G. Andersen (@K_G_Andersen) May 20, 2020

 

I think there is a different plausible reason to this. The Zoe app has been showing a plateau and slight increase in the number of people with symptoms for 10 days now. A steady quarter of a million with symptoms.  This ties up to some extent with Government data and is completely logical. This could be because the vulnerable and elderly are either dead and/or adhering well to the lock down still. The number of fitter and younger people are mixing more and going to work. So they are catching it but by nature of the disease they will be less severe so not needing hospital admission or dying. So we have to be very careful - the admissions and deaths are clearly falling but even the government data shows infection rates are high so it is not safe for the elderly and compromised to drop their guard and the government needs to emphasise this.

  Yes that’s plausible and the way I’m thinking.  So the logical approach is not only to take great caution with vulnerable groups but to be mindful that it’s still the invisible enemy!  

---

  I can only assume it's a combination of useless journalists and the nodding dog syndrome.  

The Sun thinks attacking Steve Coogan for using furlough to pay his staff is more important

The Mail thinks going to war with the Unions is more important than mass government manslaughter

And as you say, the forelock tuggers will lap it up

I think a lot of this is still the English class system and deference to posh people that Orwell wrote about. Nothing much has changed

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