Met office CPF

March update

April to June

Temperature summary

For April, above-average temperatures are slightly more likely than below-average temperatures. For April-May-June as a whole, above average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for April-May-June will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 40 and 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-amj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For April, the likelihoods of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. For April-May-June as a whole, below-average precipitation is moderately more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-amj-v1.pdf

Monday 6 Apr - Wednesday 15 Apr

The beginning of this period looks unsettled with Atlantic weather systems bringing frequent bands of wet and windy conditions across the UK from the south or southwest. Weather systems will likely be interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the best chance of any fine weather in eastern parts. There remains a chance of wintry showers during any bright and showery interludes over northern hills. Temperatures likely around average, though there is the potential for some warmer days in the east. There remains a low chance that more general settled conditions could develop to begin, bringing much drier and less windy weather. Confidence is low, but conditions at the end of the period may become quite changeable, as spells of unsettled weather alternate back and forth with more settled conditions.

Thursday 16 Apr - Thursday 30 Apr

The changeable theme between unsettled and more settled conditions is likely to continue in the middle of April. This would bring wet and windy conditions for many during unsettled spells and much more dry and fine weather during settled periods. More dominant settled conditions may begin to develop from the southeast as we head towards the end of April. This dry and fine weather has the potential to gradually push northwestwards across much of the UK, though the far northwest will likely remain rather unsettled. Temperatures vary around average to begin the period, but probably trending above average by the end of the month, especially in the south. Frosts are still possible to begin this period but will likely become infrequent by the end.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 7 Apr - Thursday 16 Apr

The beginning of this period looks unsettled with Atlantic weather systems bringing frequent bands of wet and windy conditions across the UK from the south or southwest. Weather systems will likely be interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the best chance of any fine weather in eastern parts. There remains a chance of wintry showers during any bright and showery interludes over northern hills. Temperatures likely around average, though there is the potential for some warmer days in the east. There remains a low chance that more general settled conditions could develop to begin, bringing much drier and less windy weather. Confidence is low, but conditions at the end of the period may become quite changeable, as spells of unsettled weather alternate back and forth with more settled conditions.

Friday 17 Apr - Friday 1 May

The changeable theme between unsettled and more settled conditions is likely to continue in the middle of April. This would bring wet and windy conditions for many during unsettled spells and much more dry and fine weather during settled periods. More dominant settled conditions may begin to develop from the southeast as we head towards the end of April. This dry and fine weather has the potential to gradually push northwestwards across much of the UK, though the far northwest will likely remain rather unsettled. Temperatures vary around average to begin the period, but probably trending above average by the end of the month, especially in the south. Frosts are still possible to begin this period but will likely become infrequent by the end.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 8 Apr - Friday 17 Apr

After any fog or mist clears from the south of the UK, it should be another mostly dry and sunny day on Wednesday for many, with patchy rain or drizzle here and there. Temperatures staying warm, especially towards the south. Moving into Thursday and Friday, it is likely that we will see the reappearance of some wet weather but temperatures are still likely to remain warm. Looking further ahead in this period, and there should be a good deal of dry and settled weather with spells of sunshine. The driest conditions and warmest temperatures are mostly likely towards the south, and whilst still warm in the north, there may some windier and wetter periods at times and a risk of overnight frosts.

Saturday 18 Apr - Saturday 2 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be drier towards the northwest UK, with some wetter and windier weather further south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Overall, April looks drier and warmer than normal.

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 April – Sunday 5 April

Cool end to the week but warmer this weekend.

For the second half of this week, high pressure to the west of Ireland will gradually decline and shift westwards into the North Atlantic. As it does this, a low pressure system will deepen north of the UK as it heads southeast into Scandinavia. The result will be a weak cold front that will push south across the UK starting Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. As the front heads further south it will grow weaker, so much of England and Wales will likely stay dry, but Scotland and Northern Ireland will have some bands of rain to contend with.

This is still a cold front as well, even though it's weak, so it will bring in some stronger winds and colder air behind it. Scotland will cool off first with cold air spreading south through Friday. Some scattered wintry showers are likely in northern coasts with some snow for hills in the Northwest Highlands. Strong winds are also likely for Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland and North England on Thursday.

For the end of the week and through the weekend, high pressure will build in again from the west and ease the winds and rain for most. On Saturday and into Sunday as the high slides across the UK, the winds will shift to more southerly. This will bring in some much milder air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. Sunny, warm weather is likely, especially on Sunday, for most of the country this weekend. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely run a bit cloudier though.

Monday 6 April – Sunday 12 April

Likely mostly dry, but rain chances in the north.

Although the ridge of high pressure is expected to drift eastwards at the start of April, it is likely to start to drift westwards again as we move towards the middle of the month. For the UK, this means that there will likely be more settled weather especially later in the week. However, as the high reaches into the North Atlantic, northwesterly winds may feed some cooler air in from near Iceland. The north and west of the country are most likely to see a few showers and rain at first. Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably end up wettest, with a risk of some rain even into the end of the week. Meanwhile, the further south and east you are across the country, the more likely you are to have drier and calmer weather.

Temperatures are likely to be near or a tad above average in south-eastern parts of the country, and near or perhaps a little below normal in the north and west. Overall confidence is hovering around medium. This is because minor shifts in the location of the high pressure will have some large changes in the expected weather here. If it is more of an extensive feature then expected, and this is most likely in the first half of the week, then more of the country will be relatively dry and calm, but also a bit warmer than average. If the ridge of high pressure is less of a feature, as is possible at the end of the week, then expect wetter and windier weather throughout.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 26 April

Probably drier, less windy than normal.

The middle and end of April will see high pressure centred broadly our west and south-west. This should mean that Atlantic weather systems are stopped from affecting much of the country as they usually would. The result is that we should see a spell of relatively dry weather for most of the country. This doesn't mean completely dry of course - weather systems could creep around the northern side of this high pressure system and bring some rain, this most likely to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. On the whole, it should be drier than normal for the time of year. The north of the UK is more likely to see windier weather than the south, but it doesn't look like a very windy couple of weeks in most areas.

Finally, on to the temperature forecast. Winds should come broadly from the west or southwest. This should result in some warmer than normal air being pushed across parts of the country at times. As a result, we think it is most likely that temperatures will be above normal for the time of year, especially for the southern half of the country. Whilst that doesn't rule out some cooler spells of weather, it should make any late overnight frosts or wintry showers less likely - even in Scotland.

As always with these longer range forecast, there is a bit of uncertainty. As with earlier in the month, the uncertainty centres around how extensive high pressure is across western Europe. There is a chance that it might be less influential and Atlantic weather systems bring more unsettled, wetter and windier weather to the UK -something perhaps a bit more like typical of mid-to-late April weather?

Further ahead

Although the mild, dry April forecast continues to hold, confidence is still only medium. Will late April end up wetter after all?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Warmer spell


• Plenty of dry weather through April


• Lingering risk of frost

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/04/03/john-hammonds-month-ahead-staying-home-and-dry/

Thursday 9 Apr - Saturday 18 Apr

Warm with long spells of sunshine on Thursday, with the highest temperatures most likely in the southeast. It should be predominately dry, though the far northwest could see some rain later on. Moving into Friday and Saturday, there indications that high pressure could return to give further settled conditions, with the south likely to remain dry. However, the west and northwest could see rain or showers at times. Looking further ahead in this period, there should be a good deal of dry and settled weather with spells of sunshine. The driest conditions and highest temperatures are mostly likely towards the south, and whilst still warm in the north, there may some windier and wetter periods at times and a risk of overnight frosts.

Sunday 19 Apr - Sunday 3 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be drier towards the northwest UK, with some wetter and windier weather further south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looks dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Monday 6 April – Sunday 12 April

Warm at times through the coming week

The cooler air from the northwest will move in with a ridge of high pressure and bring temperatures nearer to normal on Monday. Monday night for England will turn quite chilly with some frost likely under clear skies and calm winds. On Tuesday and Wednesday another frontal system will slowly move in from the west, with the warm front bringing in another very mild airmass on Wednesday and into Thursday.

It will turn a little cooler heading into the Easter weekend, as a cold front will bring some rain later in the week. Over the long weekend, the day-to-day specifics are still a bit uncertain, but overall, we expect things to be a bit more settled, warmer than normal, and dry. However, northern areas may see some rain and cloudy skies too.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 19 April

Mild and dry as high pressure builds

Through the middle of the month we expect high pressure will be a prominent character in the weather story. This will tend to keep things drier, calmer, and milder than normal throughout the country. The ridge of high pressure will likely sit nearby or overhead, especially by the second half of the week, so some sunny and warm days are likely.

There is still some lingering uncertainty on how settled it will be for the first half of the week, leftover from the holiday weekend. There is a risk that high pressure is a bit lethargic as it builds over the UK, so the bank holiday Monday and first part of the week may be a bit more unsettled with some rain mainly for western and northern areas. This should clear up by midweek with some dry weather for most everyone.

As the high pressure ridge shifts around slightly, there will likely be some variable temperatures swings along with some chilly nights. For the most part, however, temperatures will run above average with some warm, sunny afternoons likely. The pollen levels are also likely to climb with some good growing weather expected for a few weeks this month.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 3 May

Low pressure set to return from the northwest

The large high pressure ridge over the UK in the middle of April is likely to stick with us for most of the month, keeping things dry and mild. However, as we head later in April, the high centre may well shift east into Central Europe, becoming more centred over Germany or Poland. This means that a few weak frontal systems may be able to reach northern areas, mainly Scotland. There will still be some lengthy dry spells though.

As we head into May, there are some increasingly strong signals for a pattern shift to more unsettled weather. High pressure is most likely to decline and continue to shift away from the UK, allowing the low pressure tracks to return from the northwest. This will be a wetter and windier outlook. Temperatures will become nearer to normal but also become a bit variable with warm and cold fronts in the area.

Confidence is medium at the moment, with a risk that the high pressure is a bit more tenacious than we're giving it credit for and sticks around well into May. As it stands now, we think the most likely scenario is for some sunny, warm days through the end of April before things turn increasingly rainy in May.

Further ahead

More detail on the way for the rest of April and May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Saturday 11 Apr - Monday 20 Apr

Saturday looks to be rather unsettled with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. There may be some occasional longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and northwest where it could turn windier than recent days. Turning cooler with temperatures returning close to average. Over the rest of the Easter weekend, there should be a good deal of dry, settled weather with sunny spells. It will be driest in the south, with the greatest chance of rain and stronger winds in the far north and northwest of the UK. Temperatures above normal, and warmest in the south, but with overnight frosts further north. Beyond the Easter weekend, this weather pattern is expected to continue with dry weather dominating.

Tuesday 21 Apr - Tuesday 5 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be drier towards the northwest UK, with some wetter and windier weather further south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 12 Apr - Tuesday 21 Apr 

After an unsettled start to the week with showers across central and southern parts there should be a return to drier and brighter conditions with plenty of sunshine especially across the south. Some rain is still possible at times over parts of northern Scotland. Towards the end of the period it is likely that the drier weather will prevail, however, they may be spells of wet and windy weather at times. These more changeable periods are more likely across southern England with northwestern areas seeing the best of the drier conditions. Likely to see a large day and night variation in temperature with mild days giving way to chilly nights and a risk of frost in the north.

Wednesday 22 Apr - Wednesday 6 May 

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be drier towards the northwest of the UK, with some wetter and windier weather further south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 13 Apr - Wednesday 22 Apr

After an unsettled start to the week with showers across central and southern parts there should be a return to drier and brighter conditions with plenty of sunshine especially across the south. Some rain is still possible at times over parts of northern Scotland. Towards the end of the period it is likely that the drier weather will prevail, however, they may be spells of wet and windy weather at times. These more changeable periods are more likely across southern England with northwestern areas seeing the best of the drier conditions. Likely to see a large day and night variation in temperature with mild days giving way to chilly nights and a risk of frost in the north.

Thursday 23 Apr - Thursday 7 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be drier towards the northwest of the UK, with some wetter and windier weather further south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looking dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 April – Sunday 12 April

Warm end of the week, wetter weekend

High pressure is likely to be nearby for the rest of this week and through much of the weekend. This will keep things overall drier and sunnier than normal, with some warmer air moving in for the second half of the week. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are all likely to see temperatures climb above average widely across the country, but this will be the most pronounced in the southeast. Especially Thursday and Friday were highs may reach into the mid-twenties locally. Western areas will see some rain on Friday, and a few showers are possible in the Midlands and North England too, but otherwise it will be dry. Northern Ireland and North Scotland will likely not tap into the mild air, however, and their temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal.

Monday 13 April – Sunday 19 April

Early rain, cool air then drier and milder

Through the middle of the month we still expect high pressure will be the most prominent feature in our weather pattern. This will tend to keep things drier, calmer, and milder than normal throughout the country. The ridge of high pressure will likely sit nearby or overhead, especially by the second half of the week, so some sunny and warm days are likely. There is still some lingering uncertainty on how settled it will be for the first half of the week. High pressure will tend to build in from the north and northeast, allowing the low pressure system from the weekend to linger in the southwest early in the week.

So the first part of the week may be more unsettled with some rain showers for western areas. Northern and eastern parts of the country should be dry and sunny but feeling cooler than normal as the high brings in from Arctic air. This should clear up by midweek with some dry weather for most as temperatures moderate. As the high pressure ridge shifts around slightly, there will likely be variable temperatures swings along with some chilly nights. For the most part, however, temperatures will gradually trend above average with warm, sunny afternoons likely by the end of the week. It's not all pleasant though, as with the recent wet weather in February and March, the pollen levels will likely climb with some good growing weather expected for a few weeks this month.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 3 May

Drier for a time, but rain returns in May

The large high pressure ridge over the UK in the middle of April looks likely to stick with us for most of the month, keeping things dry and mild throughout the country. However, as we head later into April the high centre may well shift east into Central Europe, becoming more centred over Germany or Poland. This means that a few weak frontal systems may be able to reach northern areas, mainly Scotland. There will still be some lengthy dry spells, and it will stay mild with temperatures generally above average, if only by a slight amount. As we head into May, there are some increasingly strong signals for a pattern shift to more unsettled weather.

High pressure is most likely to decline and continue to shift away from the UK, allowing the low pressure tracks to gradually return from the northwest. This will be a wetter and windier outlook for the whole country, but more frequently in western and northern parts. Temperatures will become nearer to normal but also become a bit variable with warm and cold fronts in the area. Confidence is medium at the moment, with a risk that the high pressure sticks around well into May. As it stands now, we think the most likely scenario is for some sunny, warm days through the end of April before things turn increasingly rainy in May.

Further ahead

Will high pressure stick around to start May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 14 Apr - Thursday 23 Apr

The beginning of this period should see fine and settled conditions continue, with a potential for some showers towards the south and west of the UK. Temperatures are likely to become warmer again through the first half of the week with some patchy frost overnight. Looking further ahead, it is likely that the drier weather will continue, however, there may be spells of wet and windy weather at times. These more changeable periods are most likely across southern England, with northwestern areas seeing the best of the drier conditions. Temperatures are likely to see a large day and night variation, with mild days giving way to chilly nights and a risk of frost in the north.

Friday 24 Apr - Friday 8 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be more unsettled towards the north of the UK, with drier weather to the south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 15 Apr - Friday 24 Apr

After a patchy frost to start, the rest of Wednesday should be another fine and dry day with plenty of sunshine throughout. Perhaps cloudier towards the north of the UK, with some patchy light rain in the far north. Thursday and Friday are likely to become gradually warmer and remain fine and dry, although with some rain and stronger winds expected in northern parts. Looking further ahead, it is likely that the drier weather will continue, however, there may be spells of wet and windy weather at times. Temperatures are likely to see a large day and night variation, with mild days giving way to chilly nights and a risk of frost in the north.

Saturday 25 Apr - Saturday 9 May

Although confidence is low during this time period, the most probable scenario is that dry weather should dominate, with some interludes of more changeable weather at times. Towards the end of the period, there appears to be some signals that it may be more unsettled towards the north of the UK, with drier weather to the south. Temperatures are likely to vary around the average or even slightly above, with some large variations between day and night.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 16 Apr - Saturday 25 Apr

Thursday will be a dry day for many with cloudy conditions along the east coast and in the north, but sunny spells further south with some showers possible in the far south. Looking further ahead it is likely that settled weather will continue for much of the country, this meaning some good spells of sunshine and dry conditions for many with the best of the drier weather around central areas of the UK. Meanwhile showers and at times some longer spells of rain are possible in the south, whilst the far north may see bands of rain accompanied by stronger winds for a time. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year but large variations between day and night remain possible with the chance of isolated frost patches.

Sunday 26 Apr - Sunday 10 May

There is lower confidence through the end of April, however the most probable outlook is that settled conditions will continue to dominate with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells. The far north however may see more unsettled conditions with the possibility of this spreading southeastwards at times. Additionally there is the continued risk for further showers or some longer spells of rain to develop across the south. Signals show that similar conditions will continue for the first half of May with mainly dry, fine weather for many but still the chance of rain in the far north and south especially. Temperatures look to be above average for most but a little cooler in the north where rain and breezy conditions are more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 17 Apr - Sunday 26 Apr

Friday will be a dry and cloudy day for many with showers across the south and some heavy downpours in the southwest. Cooler in the east due to an onshore breeze. Looking further ahead it is likely that settled weather will continue for much of the country, this meaning some good spells of sunshine and dry conditions for many with the best of the drier weather around central areas of the UK. Meanwhile showers and at times some longer spells of rain are possible in the south, whilst the far north may see bands of rain accompanied by stronger winds for a time. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year but large variations between day and night remain possible with the chance of isolated frost patches.

Monday 27 Apr - Monday 11 May

There is lower confidence through the end of April, however the most probable outlook is that settled conditions will continue to dominate with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells. The far north however may see more unsettled conditions with the possibility of this spreading southeastwards at times. Additionally there is the continued risk for further showers or some longer spells of rain to develop across the south. Signals show that similar conditions will continue for the first half of May with mainly dry, fine weather for many but still the chance of rain in the far north and south especially. Temperatures look to be above average for most but a little cooler in the north where rain and breezy conditions are more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Some of those forecasts at the beginning of April were shockers, and not just in the long term but the medium range as well.

This one made me laugh :

The Met Office has responded to fresh claims that the UK could bask in temperatures as warm as 24C over the Easter holidays.

Claims throughout the week had suggested that the UK could be in line for a heatwave, with Brian Gaze - a forecaster for The Weather Outlook - saying 'the record for the hottest spring is expected to come under pressure'.

But the Exeter-based Met Office has poured cold water on those claims.

Grahame Madge, a spokesperson at the Met Office, said that the UK was actually in line for a cold spell.

And while temperatures looked likely to climb a little above average for the time of year, he said talk of 24C was 'not something that is supported by any of the signals ' he had seen.

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/met-office-say-24c-over-3965133

Saturday 18 Apr - Monday 27 Apr

Remaining mostly fine and dry on Saturday with many places seeing sunny spells once early mist patches clear. The south/southwest may see cloud build through the day with some outbreaks of showery rain at times. Generally warm, but cooler in the breeze. Looking further ahead, settled conditions seem likely to continue for much of the country with some good spells of sunshine and dry weather, especially across central areas of the UK. Showers and some longer spells of rain are possible at times in the south, whilst the far north may see bands of more persistent rain accompanied by stronger winds. Temperatures should be above average for most, but there is still the risk of the odd isolated frost in rural areas by night.

Tuesday 28 Apr - Tuesday 12 May

There is lower confidence through the end of April, however the most probable outlook is that settled conditions will continue to dominate with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells. The far north however may see more unsettled conditions with the possibility of this spreading southeastwards at times. Additionally there is the continued risk for showers or some longer spells of rain to develop across the south. Signals show that similar conditions will continue for the first half of May with mainly dry, fine weather for many but still the chance of rain in the far north and south especially. Temperatures look to be above average for most but a little cooler in the north where rain and breezy conditions are more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

If any of you are interested in knowing more about the weather stories which appear in the media you can join a live Zoom videochat I will be doing with Alistair Grant this Thursday at 8:30pm. You'll be able to ask questions and give your views. There will also a chance to talk about the prospects for the rest of April and May, as well as looking back on winter 2019/20. If you've got specific questions about TWO you'll be able to ask those too.

https://www.facebook.com/events/2660997017342172/