Met Office Hadley       6.9c.      Anomaly       1.2c   Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                    6.43c     Anomaly       0.27c

Netweather                 7.06c     Anomaly       0.77c

Peasedown St John    7.7c       Anomaly       1.43c. 

Met Office Hadley          6.8c.        Anomaly       1.1c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                       6.34c       Anomaly        0.28c

Netweather                    6.99c       Anomaly        0.7c

Peasedown st John      7.6c.        Anomaly        1.33c.  

Not quite high enough for me and a disappointing end to the month.  I think it’s likely to end around 6.6c after adjustments. 

Met Office Hadley        6.8c.    Anomaly       1.0c. Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                     6.31c   Anomaly        0.15c

Netweather                  6.94c   Anomaly        0.65c

Peasedown St John    7.6c.    Anomaly        1.33c.    

It's held up slightly better than envisioned.

In the end, not bad going to finish (likely, after adjustments) more than half a degree above average in a month that has seen its fair share of cold nights and even a bit of lowland wintry weather in places.

I have a feeling April may be more toward the wintertime anomalies... let's see how that goes! 

Metcheck     6.32c   For March

Netweather  6.91c   For March  

That means the last five months have all been within one degree C of each other.

Nov 6.2, Dec 5.8c, Jan 6.4, Feb 6.3c and March 6.7c.

That must be rare.

That means the last five months have all been within one degree C of each other.

 

Nov 6.2, Dec 5.8c, Jan 6.4, Feb 6.3c and March 6.7c.

 

That must be rare.

And just 0.4C for the 4 months Nov-Feb.

I wonder if the equivalent summer 5 month period of May-Sep has ever been within 1C of each other? Quite possibly as the summer period tends to be less variable overall than winter.

March confirmed as 6.7c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

I think that's possibly then my first time Ive been closest in 5 years, or about 60 attempts.

Great Stat Splinter! That does seem to be unusual.

4 times all in March and no others at all

Nov 1698-March 1699 within 0.6

Nov 1788-March 1799 within 0.9

Nov 1922-March 1923 within 0.9

Nov 2019-March 2020 within 0.9

The 1698/99 one is a bit iffy as some of this was only recorded (retro-calculated) to 0.5C

The worst fit is June 1947 where the spread from Feb 1947 to June 1947 is 17.4C

 

And just 0.4C for the 4 months Nov-Feb.

I wonder if the equivalent summer 5 month period of May-Sep has ever been within 1C of each other? Quite possibly as the summer period tends to be less variable overall than winter.

Actually I think this would be much harder to achieve in summer as although there is less deviation from the average CET, the averages for the months are themselves much more widely spaced - for instance the difference between May and September is such that we have to go back to 1992 to find the last time May was the warmer of the 2. And its a similar story for the gap between the high summer months of July and August and June/Sept. Even the hottest June of the last century (1976) was in fact not much hotter than a typical July

Well done Phil. A good result. 

Well done Phil. A good result. 

Cheers Steve.  looking ahead April is a nightmare to predict so good luck to you and everyone else.

I feel robbed

 

Cheers Steve.  looking ahead April is a nightmare to predict so good luck to you and everyone else.

Yep, well done Phil. March was a tricky one too 

Well done Phil. A good result. 

I’ll second that!    

Thanks Caz. Now April can shake the tree. I think I’ve gone too low already. 

Table from Feb cumulative error, March estimates and error, to March cumulative error      

                               To Feb     Mar est         actual           Error          To Mar