An encouraging GFS 12z run with some pleasant dry weather with above average temperatures for many. High pressure to the south or south-east and low pressure to the north-west, so more changeable towards the north-west.

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The cold air in the far N of Europe definitely disappearing http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 though more rain in the W (incl UK) later on than previously forecast on the associated precip'n map.

GFS: HP ridging across UK this week,not strong enough to prevent N-lies for the NE for a while, but by Sat 4th HP centre is over W Europe with S-lies for all. This  weakens and strengthens and moves around with weak troughs stalling over UK at times (new  feature in the outlook - see Mon 6th, Sun 12th, Thu 16th) , such troughs being extensions from major Atlantic depressions running NE-ly up towards Iceland.

ECM same to start with but loses the HP over Europe Wed 8th with small depression moving E over UK

FAX brings this week's N-ly plunge further S on Thu than other models

GEFS for the S generally on the mild side from Sun 5th (briefly lower on 7th), more rain on and off from 6th (more so than yesterday). Less agreement between runs for the N, more of a dip on the 7th, also drier than the S later on

 

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No mega Northerly now for the weekend,some stupid tiny low develops near greenland which breaks the high pressure and allows lows from the Atlantic to merge with it.

Just can never get a sustained cold spell in the u.k.,back to normal dross again soon after.
Still I saw a snowflake Sunday first in 14 months,yipee

Too close for comfort to the cold here.

 

 

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FAX has the clearest indication that cold air will sweep south on the back of LP over Norway - pressure pattern similar on GFS but that doesn't show the cold front. GFS goes on to show HP then developing over Poland Sun 5th (probably the warmest day) with S-ly winds for all. HP (eg Sat 11th) and shallow troughs (e.g. Thu 9th) from Atlantic then take turns over the UK, exact forecast varying day to day. Run finishes on Fri 17th with definite HP 1025mb S England and strong SW winds for Scotland.

ECM similar with minor variations in the alternation of HP/LP as above. Both main models staying mild/warm.

GEFS similar to yesterday, mild by 5th, dip on 7th, most runs then mild but mean a bit lower than yesterday (and in N mean close to seasonal norm), and sporadic rain from 7th less marked than previous forecast (a bit wetter in far N of Scotland).

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Not that we will be able to do anything, but Easter is beginning to come into view and signs are encouraging for something similar to last Easter. Probably not quite so warm, but would be most welcome to lift the spirits.

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No mega Northerly now for the weekend,some stupid tiny low develops near greenland which breaks the high pressure and allows lows from the Atlantic to merge with it.

Just can never get a sustained cold spell in the u.k.,back to normal dross again soon after.
Still I saw a snowflake Sunday first in 14 months,yipee

​No surprise there as anything remotely interesting always fails to come off especially here  I've said in the past that they should tweak the models so that they never show anything interesting and during the past non-winter that is exactly what appeared to have happened.

All the more galling that it's replaced with the worst possible crud. Yet another cold, grey, windy boring and unpleasant Saturday coming up making it 5/5 so far in this unbelievably hideous Spring. Only Saturday to make double figures this year was 11th January! It's ludicrous. 

Given the current restrictions on movement I wouldn't be keen on a spell of brilliant weather, as it would be wasted, but it would be nice to be able to sit in the garden even for just an hour or two. At this time of year it really shouldn't take much for that to be possible just a bit of sun with light winds but we can't get that for even the briefest period.

Getting to the stage where 2013 is the only parallel for the entire absence of warm, pleasant weather. Even 1996, after that utterly revolting horror show March, saw 18C reached in early April. The day after saw a return to the easterly muck with fog and 6C but at least we did see some warmth. Such swings in temperature used to be common from day to day in Spring but practically unheard of now as it is the same bland temperatures day in day out.

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Strong jetstream over the Med with a weaker N branch near the UK (though not entirely absent as previously forecast) until around Tue 7th when energy begins to transfer into that N branch which takes over. It does however remain fragmented though stronger across UK from NW by Fri 17th.

GFS and ECM agree generally: HP over Europe and S winds over UK by Sun 5th, though deep LP closer to Scotland than previously forecast. Then slack HP overor near S of UK until Wed 15th (weak trough on Mon 13th?) with winds from S/SW but centre shifts to Atlantic  by Sat 18th with winds from NW. ECM however has a light E-ly Sat 11th with HP further N.

Temps showing a big rise to Mon 6th, a brief dip, mostly warm to Mon 13th after which more divergence than previously and more runs cooler after Fri 17th though mean still close to norm (Divergence and cooler period more noticeable in Scotland). Spike of rainfall Mon 6th in the S, mostly dry after that in S, a few more occasional spikes in N though.

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​No surprise there as anything remotely interesting always fails to come off especially here  I've said in the past that they should tweak the models so that they never show anything interesting and during the past non-winter that is exactly what appeared to have happened.

All the more galling that it's replaced with the worst possible crud. Yet another cold, grey, windy boring and unpleasant Saturday coming up making it 5/5 so far in this unbelievably hideous Spring. Only Saturday to make double figures this year was 11th January! It's ludicrous. 

Given the current restrictions on movement I wouldn't be keen on a spell of brilliant weather, as it would be wasted, but it would be nice to be able to sit in the garden even for just an hour or two. At this time of year it really shouldn't take much for that to be possible just a bit of sun with light winds but we can't get that for even the briefest period.

Getting to the stage where 2013 is the only parallel for the entire absence of warm, pleasant weather. Even 1996, after that utterly revolting horror show March, saw 18C reached in early April. The day after saw a return to the easterly muck with fog and 6C but at least we did see some warmth. Such swings in temperature used to be common from day to day in Spring but practically unheard of now as it is the same bland temperatures day in day out.

Yes! Also we had a sudden stratospheric warming as well, but seems like - yet again). We are not getting any tropospheric response despite a very - NAO at the moment.

I wouldn't mind some wind and rain actually. Interesting that since the lockdown last Sunday we have had dry and sunny weather every day.

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Either we did not have a sudden stratospheric warming or I missed it.

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Either we did not have a sudden stratospheric warming or I missed it.

Excuse me, it looks like you might have a few flakes of snow tomorrow  

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Excuse me, it looks like you might have a few flakes of snow tomorrow  

True!

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I wouldn't mind some wind and rain actually. Interesting that since the lockdown last Sunday we have had dry and sunny weather every day.

After 6 months of wet weather and all that recent flooding. Are you serious?

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After 6 months of wet weather and all that recent flooding. Are you serious?

Yes the psychology of it.

Warm.and dry = we would all want to be outdoors , go to beach,  walks, have BBQs, drinks outdoor restaurants etc.

Wind and rain = we would want to stay indoors .

The fact that the weather is forecast to be nice and relatively warm this weekend but knowing that we can't do anything as we are in lockdown mode.

 So the point is that I wouldn't mind the rain now as.ill be indoors most.of time like many!?

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Yes the psychology of it.

Warm.and dry = we would all want to be outdoors , go to beach,  walks, have BBQs, drinks outdoor restaurants etc.

Wind and rain = we would want to stay indoors .

The fact that the weather is forecast to be nice and relatively warm this weekend but knowing that we can't do anything as we are in lockdown mode.

 So the point is that I wouldn't mind the rain now as.ill be indoors most.of time like many!?

For most people:

Warm and dry = feel good factor and walks in the fresh air and sunshine.

Wind and rain = gloomy moods, lack of vitamin D and stuck in the house. 

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After a front moves across on Mon, high Pressure in charge through to end of run Sun 19th Apr, with slight break Sat 11th/Sun 12th as weak trough drifts over UK and centre over Europe is replaced by a new centre moving in from the SW. ECM concurs.

GEFS mild/warm to Sun 12th (short dip on 7th) and dry, after which rather uncertain with big range of temps across runs (mean close to norm but not meaningful in face of such a big range) and just one or two big rainfall spikes while most are dry. In N more runs with rainfall but nothing consistent..

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....... following the pattern of recent years with long blocks of the same weather type. The UK no longer seems to have "changeable" weather.

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....... following the pattern of recent years with long blocks of the same weather type. The UK no longer seems to have "changeable" weather.

I agree. We seem to typically have 2-3 months of a weather type before it shifts to the next one. Only with the recent wet weather, we had 2 back-to-back rainy periods.  

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....... following the pattern of recent years with long blocks of the same weather type. The UK no longer seems to have "changeable" weather.

Not a new idea. I remember talking to my mother-in-law about this suggestion, then new to me, and that must have been 15 years ago.

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Some very warm air in nearby Continent for week 2 so hope for fine weather continuing. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Fairly dry too, though some rain in the west http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 The blue over S Norway disappears for the first time since October - they've had a long cold winter with temps below average for most of the time, curiously unlike us or much of the rest of Scandinavia.

Here and now, GFS has HP dominating for the next two weeks, troughs occasionally brushing the far NW (today, Fri 10th Wed 15th). The trough on Fri 10th, like yesterday but more weakly, also drifts further S briefly on the following day, Sat 11th. Lower pressure over France at end of run on Sat 18th.

ECM differs from Sat 11th with HP over Scotland on that day eventually ridging to Iceland and some cooler air drifting down the N sea and then from the east over S England.

GEFS runs make more of a breakdown on Sat 11th. Warm Sun 5th, cool Tue 7th, warm Fri 10th, cool again with rain Sat 11th, then the scatter takes over with most runs going for mild and a little rain from time to time.

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