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This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during April, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for April should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for April
1971-2000 8.1C (30 years)
1981-2010 8.5C (30 years)
2000-2019 9.0C (last 20 years)
April CET record 11.8C 2011
Here is a chart of the April CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
Current model output (at 12z 30 Mar)
Cold start but soon turning milder
GFS 850's -https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m - https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM ENS T2m -http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-amj-v1.pdf
Weak signal for slightly above average conditions.
Prediction CET in for unsettled weather.
Met Office Hadley 6.2c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 1st.
Metcheck 5.67c Anomaly -2.35c
Netweather 5.91c Anomaly -2.2c
Peasedown St John 7.4c Anomaly -0.86c.
GFS 06z was impressive today; rough CET estimate lifted from just 6.2*C as of 4th to 9.0*C as of 10th and then on to 10.0*C as of 15th!
Crikey! That is impressive. A bit high for my CET chances but great for getting in the garden!
Indeed - now more than ever, those who have somewhere outside to catch the sun within their own property can appreciate what they have. I feel so sorry for those who have no such place.
CET-wise, I'm interested to see how much the short-term relatively low temps have affected the spread of estimates, versus the warmth being modelled for next week.
April is always one of the trickiest months, due to its capacity to bring anything from cold weather with snow chances to an early 'heatwave' (in the relative to normal sense) with temps reaching the mid-20s widely!
Just look at the all-time UK records according to TORRO:Lowest -15.0°C (Cumbria 2nd Apr 1917), Highest 29.4°C (London 16th Apr 1949).
It's been surprisingly long since that high record - but the past few years have shown a striking step-up in climate warming signature across the UK & Europe. I wonder if we'll crack 30°C in April some year soon? What a thought!
UP WE GO !!!
Met Office Hadley 7.6c. Anomaly 1.3c. Provisional to 2 nd.
Metcheck 6.77c Anomaly -1.25c
Netweather 7.34c Anomaly -0.77c
Peasedown St John 7.08c. Anomaly -0.46c.
Met Office Hadley 7.9c. Anomaly 1.7c. Provisional to3rd.
Metcheck 6.93c Anomaly -1.25c
Netweather 7.65c Anomaly -0.77c
Peasedown St John 6.96c Anomaly -1.8c.
Astonishing: Using the raw numbers of the 06z GFS run of 1st April, the estimate to 3rd was 6.15°C. The provisional is 1.75°C higher! Even allowing for the non-provisional tending to be lower, that's not going to be much off such an enormous error.
With the provisional to 3rd applied, that run gives an estimate of ~10.3°C to 15th, up by 0.3°C from before.
Yet, it still falls short of today's 06z, which lifts the CET estimate all the way up to ~10.6°C to 15th and then stays warmer afterward, such that at run's end on 19th, the estimate is flying high at ~10.7°C. If the remainder of the month was bang-on average, that'd give a final CET in the low 10s °C.
Starting to wonder if I should have been a bit bolder with my estimation this month!
Astonishing: Using the raw numbers of the 06z GFS run of 1st April, the estimate to 3rd was 6.15°C. The provisional is 1.75°C higher! Even allowing for the non-provisional tending to be lower, that's not going to be much off such an enormous error.With the provisional to 3rd applied, that run gives an estimate of ~10.3°C to 15th, up by 0.3°C from before.Yet, it still falls short of today's 06z, which lifts the CET estimate all the way up to ~10.6°C to 15th and then stays warmer afterward, such that at run's end on 19th, the estimate is flying high at ~10.7°C. If the remainder of the month was bang-on average, that'd give a final CET in the low 10s °C. Starting to wonder if I should have been a bit bolder with my estimation this month!
Same here James.
Met Office Hadley 8.1c. Anomaly 1.9c. Provisional to 4th.
Metcheck 7.43c Anomaly -0.58c
Netweather 8.08c Anomaly -0.03c
Peasedown St John 7.84c Anomaly -0.42c
Met Office Hadley 8.9c Anomaly 2.6c Provisional to 5th.
Metcheck 8.77c Anomaly 0.76c
Netweather 9.14c Anomaly 1.05c
Peasedown St John 9.3c Anomaly 1.1c
Met Office Hadley 9.4c Anomaly 3.0c. Provisional to 6th.
Metcheck 8.83c Anomaly 0.81c
Netweather 9.67c Anomaly 1.58c
Peasedown St John 8.42c Anomaly 0.16c.
Met Office Hadley 9.5c Anomaly 3.0c. Provisional to 7th.
Metcheck 9.26c Anomaly 1.23c
Netweather 9.82c Anomaly 1.73c
Peasedown St John 9.32c Anomaly 1.06c.
Anyone know if GW's ok? It's showing his last visit here was 1st April. With all that's going on...