I’m sure all CETers are polishing their predictions and sending them by PM to Global Warming. Thought I’d start this thread as an aide memoire to anyone who might have forgotten 

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Hope March is not all sixes and sevens. Or a tale of three sections. Anyway, Prediction shall be PM'nd .

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This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during March, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.  

Historic CET summary for March 

1971-2000 6.3C (30 years) 

1981-2010 6.3C (30 years) 

2000-2019 6.6C (last 20 years)

The temperature in March has varied significantly in recent years. We have had 3 cold years, 2013, 2016 and 2018 (with just 2.7C in 2013). All three were under 6C. But 2012, 2017 and 2019 were all very warm. 2017 saw 8.7C.

Here is a chart of the March CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the chart 

CHART

Current model output

GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= 

ECM T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Contingency planners - Met Office

Temperature Summary - above average

Better bump this up!  Could a mod please sticky it?  Thank you. 

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Better bump this up!  Could a mod please sticky it?  Thank you. 

Just stickied it Caz.

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Just stickied it Caz.

 Thanks HT!  

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Met Office Hadley           5.3c.       Anomaly       0.7c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                        4.11c      Anomaly       -2.05c

Netweather                     5.63c      Anomaly       -0.68c

Peasedown St John       5.3c.       Anomaly       -0.97c.

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It will be sods law if March turned out to be the coldest month of the `winter`

Here are the March predictions and the first look at the March CET tracker

TABLE

CHART1

CHART2

  Thanks GW!  

There’s quite a group around the 7c mark!

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Met Office Hadley         5.0c.       Anomaly       0.4c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      4.09c      Anomaly       -2.07c

Netweather                   4.97c      Anomaly       -1.34c

Peasedown St John     5.3c        Anomaly        -0.97c.

 

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Met Office Hadley        5.1c.       Anomaly        0.6c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                     4.14c      Anomaly        -2.02c

Netweather                  4.97c      Anomaly        1.34c

Peasedown St John     5.4c       Anomaly         0.87c.

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I really need a cold spell this month 

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Met Office Hadley         4.9c.      Anomaly        0.3c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                      4.17c     Anomaly        -1.99c

Netweather                   4.88c     Anomaly        -1.43c

Peasedown St John     5.3c       Anomaly        -0.97c.

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Met Office Hadley          4.8c.        Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       3.98c       Anomaly        -2.18c

Netweather                    4.8c         Anomaly        -1.51c

Peasedown St John       5.3c        Anomaly         -0.97c.    

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Met Office Hadley          4.8c.        Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       3.98c       Anomaly        -2.18c

Netweather                    4.8c         Anomaly        -1.51c

Peasedown St John       5.3c        Anomaly         -0.97c.    

  Crikey!  If it carries on like this, we’ve all gone too high!

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Met Office Hadley           4.7c.        Anomaly         -0.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                        4.15c       Anomaly         -2.01c

Netweather                     4.66c       Anomaly         -1.65c

Peasedown St John       5.4c         Anomaly          -1.65c.        

Prediction                       6.98c       Anomaly        -1.58c.

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Met Office Hadley           5.0c.       Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                        4.90c      Anomaly        -1.26c

Netweather                     5.17c      Anomaly        -1.14c

Peasedown St John        5.9c        Anomaly        -0.37c. 

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Here is the latest March CET tracker

CHART1

CHART2

That's a very pleasant surprise for the 7C+ brigade! Based on recent GFS Ops runs I was wondering if we were going to get above 6C this month!?

I'm not convinced that the CET will pan out as mild the current estimates are showing. But perhaps any easterlies will be more like spring lambs than spring lions .....

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