Arpege 12Z has virtually given up on the idea of snow tomorrow in southern England, just a few patches amid the rain across the northern home counti. Very different from earlier output.

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I am optimistic (95%, as opposed to 90% yesterday) that nothing will spoil my snow free winter here. In a season as rubbish as this one, I want to remember it for all the wrong reasons and not have a random flake of soggy sleet spoil it.
What’s interesting is that although the low has, as so many do, trended south again inside 24hrs, the snow risk has diminished.
The uppers amongst other parameters are simply the wrong side of marginal for anything other than rain down here.

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Arpege 12Z has virtually given up on the idea of snow tomorrow in southern England, just a few patches amid the rain across the northern home counti. Very different from earlier output.

To me it shows how marginal parameters are. I think there's a reasonable chance of a slushy covering in the Chilterns.

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I've been told some people like Hirlam. Worth a look if you're one of them.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/hirlam.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=na-region&charttag=Precip%20type

 

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Snow warning for the north states:

'Wintry showers are expected to continue through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially over Northern Ireland and western Scotland, before developing more widely across parts of northern England, the north Midlands and north Wales later in the night. This will leave surfaces wet, leading to icy stretches developing on untreated surfaces. Showers will fall as a mixture of hail, sleet and snow. Some places are likely to see 1-3 cm of snow, mainly above 100 m, with 5-10 cm possible above 400 m.'

I think the 100m is about right in NW England. Should be some good falls for those who have been disappointed this week across parts of Greater Manchester and further snow for western parts of Yorks.

We will be on the edge of it again, so perhaps a thin slushy covering.

Could well be 5 days in a row with fresh lying snow for some modest height areas in the Pennines e.g parts of Halifax, Bradford and Dales towns as there is also some potential Friday morning for snow before it turns to rain.

UKV still showing a few hours of heavy snow tomorrow morning, even in Manchester City Centre. 

I suspect I will see some snow falling on my way to work, accumulations will be reserved for 100m plus. 

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I've been told some people like Hirlam. Worth a look if you're one of them.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/hirlam.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=na-region&charttag=Precip%20type

 

Yes please, perfect for NE Herts.

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I've been told some people like Hirlam. Worth a look if you're one of them.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/hirlam.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=na-region&charttag=Precip%20type

 

Maybe our best and only chance of snow here in Bedworth 

Looks like E4 has lost its mojo on this one. Even compared to the 12Z output the current ppn now moving in is 200 miles further north than E4 had it. Hirlam spot on.

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Interestingly the met office automated forecast for my area has reverted back to heavy snow for tonight. It had been showing light snow / sleet through the late afternoon and early evening.

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Interestingly the met office automated forecast for my area has reverted back to heavy snow for tonight. It had been showing light snow / sleet through the late afternoon and early evening.

 

It has rain, without even a hint of sleet, for  Newbury and snow for  Didcot tomorrow morning  - one just south of the M4, one just north - so I can believe it  !!!

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Living South of the M4' There seems to be no snow to be seen.

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It has rain, without even a hint of sleet, for  Newbury and snow for  Didcot tomorrow morning  - one just south of the M4, one just north - so I can believe it  !!!

 

Will be interesting to see if our elevation at 135m in Bucklebury compared to 60 or so in Newbury is enough to give us a flake or two. Ever hopeful, but not that much...

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Rain alternating with heavier bursts of sleet here despite a yellow weather warning for snow. Quite disappointing given we are high up on the Leicestershire Wolds.

 

Edit- now snowing lightly 

Located right in the middle of the METO yellow weather warning for snow here, it’s raining - as expected

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Just about sums this winter up right in the middle of the warning zone and not a flake of snow to be seen and of course its fizzled out now and the sun is out .

Just about sums this winter up right in the middle of the warning zone and not a flake of snow to be seen and of course its fizzled out now and the sun is out .

Really?

 

That's unlucky mate , we had a covering , nice to see but on its way out now 

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Really?

 

That's unlucky mate , we had a covering , nice to see but on its way out now 

Yeah the radar was showing precipitation over us but not much was falling I think it weakened too much and fell as rain not snow in Warwickshire.

Just about sums this winter up right in the middle of the warning zone and not a flake of snow to be seen and of course its fizzled out now and the sun is out .

Same here in Evesham

Another mild, sunny, spring day on the way!

Noticed this morning that the lavender in my garden has produced a load of new growth in just the past 48 hours

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PSJ had SNOW this morning at 06:30 for an hour and a half. 

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Will be interesting to see if our elevation at 135m in Bucklebury compared to 60 or so in Newbury is enough to give us a flake or two. Ever hopeful, but not that much...

 

Not sure what it did here in Kingsclere as disappeared  at circa 5:30 AM.  Hit meaningful snow north of Newbury and we a had a temporary coverage at Chilton (near Deadcat) ! All gone by about 11:30 though !

 

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