BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet and windy weather at times

_________________________________

Saturday 22 February – Sunday 1 March

Often wet and windy. Chilly at times.

A wet and windy outlook for the coming week. It will become quite chilly at times, too, with some wintry showers as well. Rainfall amounts are likely to remain above average, leading to further high river levels and an ongoing risk of some flooding in places. Another blustery weekend ahead this weekend. Saturday will be windy with cloud and rain clearing south-eastwards, leaving bright spells and showers. Wintry showers are likely in the north. Further rain for a time on Sunday, again clearing eastwards to leave brighter skies but with further wintry showers for western Scotland.

On Monday, a deep low pressure area in the north-east Atlantic looks like bringing another wet and windy spell of weather for many. Over Scotland, the rain could be preceded by a spell of snow, possibly even down to low levels. Gales are likely to develop over some northern parts of the UK too. The rest of next week will see a similar weather pattern. Further bands of rain and brisk winds are likely to spread from west to east across the country. There are also likely to be some brighter but chillier days with wintry showers. Accumulations of snow will be mainly over hills in the north and west of the UK.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 8 March

Further wet and windy spells.

The unsettled theme to our weather is likely to persist into the first week of March. Low pressure areas are expected to pass close to Scotland at times. These low pressure areas will bring further wet and windy conditions. The wettest and windiest weather is likely to be over the northern half of the UK, where rainfall amounts could be well-above average. It is also likely to become chilly at times with winds occasionally from the north or north-west, bringing some wintry showers. Any snow will be mainly confined to hills but could occasionally fall to low levels, with the highest risk for Scotland. Over the southern half of the UK, it will also be wet and windy at times. However, we may see one or two lengthier drier periods of weather later in the week. Just slight chances that drier and calmer weather prevails through much of the week.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 22 March

Turning drier in the south. Wet in the north.

As we move into the middle part of March, we should see a subtle change in the weather pattern. Low pressure areas still look like bringing some wet and breezy weather at times. However, these lows should lift a little further north. This means that the southern half of the UK should gradually see a change to lengthier periods of drier and calmer weather. Rainfall here should become less frequent, allowing river levels to lower and the flooding situation to improve. However, there are signs that frequent westerly flows will affect areas further north. These westerly flows will likely bring a persistence of wet and windy weather to the north. Western Scotland, in particular, could stay very wet. Temperatures look like tending to rise through mid-March with a reducing risk of snow. It looks like become mild at times.

Further ahead

There is still some uncertainty over the timing of any change to drier and calmer weather. We will take another look to see when and where we may see a drier trend.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 27 Feb - Saturday 7 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and northwestern areas, especially over the hills, with the best of any more prolonged drier interludes in the south and east. There is an increased chance of deep low pressure systems affecting somewhere in the UK, causing large amounts of rainfall and very strong winds. Temperatures are likely to frequently oscillate between rather cold and rather mild, with large diurnal variations. During any colder interludes, there is likely to be some snow on the high ground of the north. The weather may become more settled in the southeast at the very end of this period, though remaining unsettled elsewhere.

Friday 6 Mar - Friday 20 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter, but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It appears likely that conditions will turn generally more settled by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet and windy weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, but there will be large diurnal variations should more settled conditions take control, with frosts becoming likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Which MSN has just interpreted as snow sweeping across all regions with the Met Office giving yellow snow warning for all areas and places in Scotland being cut off! Still at least they won't drive me to suicide!

"Snow is to sweep across Scotland after a weather warning from the Met Office.

Forecasters have issued a yellow warning for snow for every region in the country.

It will come into effect on Monday, February 24 between 6am and 9pm. 

Cancelled flights, stranded cars and power cuts could occur due to the treacherous conditions.

Some more rural areas 'could become cut off' as the country gears up for plummeting temperatures and wintry showers.

The news will not be welcome as Scots have already contended with two storms this week bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Flooding across Greater Glasgow has caused residents to be evacuated as waters rise.

And now with fresh snow on the way it signals another week of miserable weather conditions."

Of course they omitted every instance of the Met office saying "there is a slight chance".

Saturday 29 Feb - Monday 9 Mar

Over the weekend, it will be unsettled with further spells of wind and rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Wintry showers are possible further north, mainly over hills, but they could fall to lower levels. There will be an ongoing risk of gales, and should deep low pressure systems form, severe gales to storm force winds are possible. Continuing through the period, further wet and windy weather is likely, especially in the north, before more settled conditions start to develop from the south at the end of this period. Temperatures are likely to frequently oscillate between rather cold and rather mild. During any colder interludes, there is likely to be some snow on the high ground of the north.

Monday 9 Mar - Monday 23 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first in the north, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter, but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest. It should be more settled with drier conditions in southern and eastern parts. Progressing through this period, conditions will likely turn more settled across most areas by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet and windy weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, but there will be large diurnal variations should more settled conditions take control, with frosts becoming likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 1 Mar - Tuesday 10 Mar

It will be unsettled with further spells of wind and rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Wintry showers are possible further north, mainly over hills, but they could fall to lower levels. There will be an ongoing risk of gales, and should deep low pressure systems form, severe gales to storm force winds are possible. Continuing through the period, further wet and windy weather is likely, especially in the north, before more settled conditions start to develop from the south at the end of this period. Temperatures are likely to frequently oscillate between rather cold and rather mild. During any colder interludes, there is likely to be some snow on the high ground of the north.

Wednesday 11 Mar - Wednesday 25 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first in the north, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter, but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest. It should be more settled with drier conditions in southern and eastern parts. Progressing through this period, conditions will likely turn more settled across most areas by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet and windy weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, but there will be large diurnal variations should more settled conditions take control, with frosts becoming likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Looks like Met Office now has warnings for next 4 days

Wednesday Snow and Ice (north of about Staffordshire)

Thursday Snow and Ice and another for snow (reaching down to North London)

Friday rain

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-27

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather to continue but drier spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 26 February – Sunday 1 March

Showery in the west, rain and hill snow Thursday

The rest of February will be marked by unsettled weather across the UK with temperatures tending to be near or perhaps a touch below normal. Wet weather will most frequently take the form of scattered showers in western areas, that will occasionally reach central and eastern parts of the country too. Sunny spells will predominate between the showers. The cooler air feeding into the country will mean that showers will tend to be wintry on hills with some small hail reaching lower levels. The main exceptions to this will be Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and again on Friday and Saturday when weather fronts move through some parts of the country. Late Wednesday night, a weak low pressure system will pass through the English Channel and bring some rain to south Wales and southern England.

This rain will likely fall as wet snow on hills for a time but should clear to the east quickly on Thursday morning. Elsewhere the country will see continued sunshine and showers. A stronger frontal system will push into the country on Friday and last into Saturday, bringing widespread heavy rain to most places. Hill snow is likely in Wales, northern England and Scotland as well. Rain will eventually clear away Saturday afternoon with showers returning to western areas by Sunday. With temperatures being a little below average, there is a chance of some frosts overnight. These will be most prominent in Scotland and Northeast England where frosts may be quite sharp some nights. Chilly mornings are expected for all.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 8 March

Rain shifting into southern areas. Cooler.

The unsettled theme to our weather is likely to persist into the first week of March. However, there will be something of a pattern shift regarding where the wettest and windiest weather is situated. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather fronts, is expected to dip south. This will take Atlantic low pressure systems into France and Spain rather than the UK as we've seen in recent weeks. The exception here though is that southern areas of the country will still be clipped by such passing fronts. The wettest and windiest weather will therefore tend to be towards the southwest. However, northern areas won't be completely dry, with showers likely throughout the week, but it will be noticeably less wet than recently.

This southern dip in the jet stream will also bring in some colder polar air from the north, so temperatures are likely to run a bit below average. This effect will be felt the most across the northern half of the UK, but all areas will tend to be a bit cooler than normal. This will bring a risk of overnight frosts and some crisp, chilly mornings. Wintry precipitation is likely for hilly areas too, but it doesn't look quite cold enough for lowland snow to become widespread. It's not all doom and gloom though, as there will likely be some dry spells mixed in too, especially later in the week when high pressure will begin to make its presence felt more strongly.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 22 March

Drying out in the south, rain in the north.

As we move into the middle part of March, we should see a subtle change in the weather pattern. Low pressure areas still look like bringing some wet and breezy weather at times. However, these lows should lift a little further north. This means that the southern half of the UK should gradually see a change to lengthier periods of drier and calmer weather as well as ever milder temperatures.

Rainfall here should become less frequent, allowing river levels to lower and the flooding situation to improve. However, there are signs that frequent westerly flows will affect areas further north. Low pressure looks like it will often linger near Iceland helping to keep things unsettled. These westerly flows will likely bring a persistence of wet and windy weather to the north. Western Scotland, in particular, could stay very wet. Temperatures look like rising through mid-March with a reducing risk of snow.

Further ahead

Confidence is growing, but there is still some uncertainty on how wet the start of March will be. Next time we will hopefully pin down the northern extent of the expectant rain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 3 Mar - Thursday 12 Mar

Next week looks to stay unsettled with further spells of strong winds and rain, interspersed by sunnier, showery interludes. Snow is likely in the north, mainly over higher ground, though there is a chance of seeing snow to lower levels at times. There may be occasional spells of more prolonged, heavier rainfall and hill snow, particuarly in central and southern areas. Continuing into the following week, further bouts of wet and windy weather are likely, especially in the north although more settled conditions may start to develop from the south towards the end of the period. It will be predominantly rather cold with overnight frosts likely during any calmer interludes and only occasional milder days, these being more likely later in the period.

Friday 13 Mar - Friday 27 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first in the north, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter, showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest with more settled, drier conditions in southern and eastern parts. By the middle of March, conditions are likely to turn more widely settled, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet and windy weather will likely be in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, with overnight frost and fog giving way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Chilly and wet start to March


• Trend towards drier weather


• Temperatures uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/28/john-hammonds-month-ahead-in-need-of-a-lift/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Stormy end of February but trending drier in March

_________________________________

Saturday 29 February – Sunday 8 March

Stormy weekends bookend a calmer, cool week.

Storm Jorge will be moving across the UK this weekend bringing its full force to bear on Saturday. Strong winds for most of the country with heavy rain in the southwest and hill snow for North England and Scotland will make for quite the stormy day. Conditions will ease somewhat by Sunday, but it will still be quite breezy across the country, and snow is still likely in Scottish hills. Heading into the working week, Storm Jorge will abate as the weather turns a bit more benign for a time. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will dip south. Lately it has been over the UK giving us plenty of stormy weather in February, but as it heads south it will instead send those weather systems into Spain and Portugal. As a result, it will be a bit drier than it has been recently, but also feeling a bit colder than normal.

Some overnight frosts are likely this week making for some crisp mornings. It won't necessarily be completely dry though, especially in Scotland. Some rain is still likely in the west as well, which may drift into central and eastern areas occasionally. Heading into the first weekend of March, there are increasingly strong signals for yet another storm to move in from the west, bringing some wet and windy weather for the weekend. This would make the fifth consecutive weekend of unsettled weather! Confidence is only medium, however, as some models show a ridge of high pressure instead.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March

Rain shifting north. More settled in the south.

Heading into the second full working week in March in the wake of the anticipated stormy weekend, we expect high pressure to build in by around midweek. This will mean that the weather pattern will change to a more settled, drier, and milder one. Temperatures will tend to be above average, but this will be most pronounced in the South as the high feeds in warmer sub-tropical air.

Low pressure will be pushed away to the north nearer to Iceland, but weak weather fronts will likely still be able to reach into Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland. This will create a bit of a north-south split in the weather, with Wales and England being largely fine and dry while Scotland and Northern Ireland are wetter and windier. However, it will not be nearly as stormy as it has been, as these fronts are likely to be rather weak features.

The main uncertainty this week is how quickly high pressure will become established over the UK. It may take a bit longer than midweek, which would prolong the unsettled and cooler weather. The forecast models haven't quite made their minds up yet on when they might happen, but we do expect high pressure to be in place by the end of the working week.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 29 March

Staying settled at first but fronts returning.

By mid-March high pressure is expected to be firmly in place near or over the UK. The main uncertainty at this point is exactly where the ridge of high pressure will be centred. Settled weather is likely to be the norm for most, but Scotland will continue to see wetter and windier spells from weak fronts. If the high is a bit further west over the North Atlantic, wetter weather in Scotland will be able to creep into eastern areas as well, and a colder north-west wind will predominate. If the high is a bit too far northeast and closer to Scandinavia, this could send a colder easterly wind our direction as well.

However, if the high is centred near the south-west of the UK, as we expect it to be more often than not, the warmer sub-tropical air will be able to reach into the country and keep things on the milder side of average. Early spring high pressure centres can be tricky to forecast, as it is very easy for things to end up quite gloomy and grey under the high pressure. If it tends to be sunnier, temperatures will likely climb well above average. Towards the end of the month, low pressure systems are likely to begin to reach closer into the UK as the high declines. This will bring some wetter and windier weather into the northwestern parts of the country, but also increase the south-west winds, so more sub-tropical air will be fed into Wales and England.

Further ahead

We will take a closer look into the potentially stormy first weekend in March and pin down when drier weather will arrive as we head into meteorological spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Sorry to see a bit of 'who named it first' about named Atlantic storms coming from the MetO.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51686979

Not the officer class.

Sunday 8 Mar - Tuesday 17 Mar

Sunday will likely remain unsettled, with spells of rain interspersed by brighter and showery interludes and the wettest of the weather in the west. Any snow will mainly be confined to the high ground and perhaps to lower levels in the north. It will often be windy with gales possible in the northwest. Into the following week, changeable conditions are expected to continue with spells of wet and windy weather, perhaps snow over higher ground, interspersed with sunshine and showers. Some longer, drier and more settled spells are possible towards the very end of this period in the south, though the north will likely remain unsettled. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal, with occasional overnight frost.

Wednesday 18 Mar - Wednesday 1 Apr

From the second half of March, there are some tentative signs of it becoming less unsettled at least across the southern half of the country with more in the way of dry and fine weather. In the north there will likely be further spells of rain and strong winds, especially in the northwest where gales are possible. However, even for northern parts, the frequency of rain and strong winds is likely to ease to some extent. Temperatures will be around average to start but under more settled weather there will be a trend to cold nights with frost and fog giving way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 9 Mar - Wednesday 18 Mar

Monday should see milder temperatures after an early frost in sheltered rural areas. It is likely to remain unsettled, with a mixture of bright spells and showers to start, before further wet and windy weather arrives from the west. Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday, the UK is likely to see spells of rain interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the wettest of the weather in the west. It will often be windy with gales possible in the northwest. The rest of the period should continue the unsettled theme, with spells of wet and windy weather, and a potential for snow over higher ground in the north, interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal, with occasional overnight frost.

Thursday 19 Mar - Thursday 2 Apr

Towards the end of March, there are some tentative signs of it becoming less unsettled, at least across the southern half of the UK, with more in the way of dry and fine weather. In the north there will likely be further spells of rain and strong winds, especially in the northwest where gales are possible. However, even for northern parts, the frequency of rain and strong winds are likely to ease to some extent. Temperatures will be around average to start but under more settled weather there will be a trend to cold nights with frost and fog giving way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet and windy weather for a time.

_________________________________

Wednesday 4 March – Sunday 8 March

Wet and windy at times, most widely this weekend.

The coming days will be unsettled at times. Wednesday will be quite chilly and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading eastwards through the day. However, some northern areas, including much of Scotland, will stay brighter with just a scattering of showers.

After a wet night for some, Thursday should see any rain clearing eastwards to leave brighter skies. However, it will be quite chilly again. Some north-western parts of the UK will continue to see showers, these wintry over upland areas. For Friday, there is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast but it is likely to be showery for some. The greatest chance of showery rain is in the south and west.

This weekend, strengthening south-westerly winds are likely to be accompanied by more widespread outbreaks of rain. However, the winds will at least bring in milder air with temperatures rising a little above the average. Wettest conditions appear likely to be in the west and north-west of the UK where local flooding is possible.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March

Another often wet and windy week.

Indications are now for a persistence of unsettled weather through the second full week of March. Showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from west to east across the country, bringing above-average rainfall. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong winds at times, too. Therefore, there will continue to be the risk of local flooding and river levels could continue to be high at times. The greatest likelihood of strong winds appears to be around the middle part of the week.

Despite the unsettled conditions, it is not expected to be particularly cold. Any snowfall should be largely confined to upland areas in the north of the UK. Occasional frosts would be expected, though, under any lengthier clear periods at night. There now appears to be reduced chances of a lengthier drier and calmer period of weather developing through the week. However, a drier and calmer scenario cannot be completely ruled out at this stage.

Monday 16 March – Sunday 29 March

Slowly turning less wet in the south.

The second half of the month should see a slow change to less wet and less windy conditions across England and Wales. Indications are for rainfall amounts to return nearer to normal as the month progresses. There should be some lengthier dry and calmer periods of weather in-between the showers and rain, particularly in the south. However, for Scotland and Northern Ireland, low pressure areas are still likely to pass nearby at times.

This means we are likely to see a persistence of wet and breezy conditions here with rainfall amounts probably still at least a little above average for March. Overall, it is a fairly mild outlook with a lack of any significant or sustained cold weather expected. As always, there is some uncertainty to the forecast. There is a risk that low pressure areas continue to influence larger parts of the UK than expected. This would maintain the wet and windy weather more widely until the end of the month.

Further ahead

As the old proverb goes, 'if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb'. We will take another look to see if this could be true this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 10 Mar - Thursday 19 Mar

Tuesday should remain unsettled with a risk of coastal gales and further rain, particularly in the west where it could be heavy and persistent and times. Although, Scotland should see brighter, showery conditions. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, the UK is likely to see spells of rain interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the wettest of the weather in the west. It will often be windy with gales possible in the northwest. The rest of the period should continue the unsettled theme, with spells of wet and windy weather, and a potential for snow over higher ground in the north, interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal, with occasional overnight frost.

Friday 20 Mar - Friday 3 Apr

From the second half of March, there are some tentative signs of it becoming less unsettled, at least across the southern half of the UK, with more in the way of dry and fine weather. In the north there will likely be further spells of rain and strong winds, especially in the northwest where gales are possible. However, even for northern parts, the frequency of rain and strong winds are likely to ease to some extent. Temperatures will be around average to start but under more settled weather there will be a trend to cold nights with frost and fog giving way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 11 Mar - Friday 20 Mar

Tuesday should remain unsettled with a risk of coastal gales and further rain, particularly in the west where it could be heavy and persistent and times. Although, Scotland should see brighter, showery conditions. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, the UK is likely to see spells of rain interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the wettest of the weather in the west. It will often be windy with gales possible in the northwest. The rest of the period should continue the unsettled theme, with spells of wet and windy weather, and a potential for snow over higher ground in the north, interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average to cold in the North, with occasional overnight frost.

Saturday 21 Mar - Saturday 4 Apr

More settled weather may start to develop towards the end of March leading longer drier spells across the south. However, further spells of rain and strong winds are still possible at times. Further north the unsettled conditions are likely to persit with scattered showers and longer spells of rain interspersed with sunny spells. Temperatures will be cold to start but should recover to around normal. Frost and fog at times overnight will give way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• More wind and rain


• Drier trend… eventually


• Temperatures remain uncertain

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/03/06/john-hammonds-month-ahead-spring-facing-some-headwinds/

Met office CPF 

February update

March to May

Temperature summary

For March-April-May as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mam-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For March-April-May as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-mam-v2.pdf

Thursday 12 Mar - Saturday 21 Mar

Staying unsettled at first with longer spells of rain and scattered showers interspersed with bright or sunny spells. Across the north, there is a risk of sleet or snow at times over higher ground. It will be windy throughout with a risk of gales at times, especially along the coasts. Towards the end of the period, the south may see a gradual change to more settled conditions with longer periods of drier and brighter weather, though some rain is still possible. Further north, the wet and windy weather looks likely to continue. Temperatures should be around normal or slightly below to start the period. Turning colder, especially across the north with a risk of frost overnight by the end of the period.

Saturday 21 Mar - Saturday 4 Apr

More settled weather may start to develop towards the end of March leading longer drier spells across the south. However, further spells of rain and strong winds are still possible at times. Further north the unsettled conditions are likely to persit with scattered showers and longer spells of rain interspersed with sunny spells. Temperatures will be cold to start but should recover to around normal. Frost and fog at times overnight will give way to mild days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/