Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 February 2020 19:37:28


This one is looking good, very strong temperature gradient and very coherant front. Likely to give the most widespread snow event of the year so far for the north.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
idj20
22 February 2020 22:18:36

And now I'm hoping it doesn't snow at this end until when the meteorological Spring does start so that I can get to say that I have witnessed a completely totally snow-free Winter for Kent. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 06:50:27

That map puts me on the southern edge of snow.  My weather apps are showing rain but with temps of 1-2c and they usually over cook temps slightly as well.  So I’m thinking I might be in for a chance of snow and should plan for an earlier drive to work. 


One of your probability maps would be nice Q!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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doctormog
23 February 2020 08:02:49
Based on most data Caz, as it currently stands, the snow will only be further north and mostly with a little elevation. Some places could get quite a bit inland in Scotland and northernmost England. Thanks to the easterly component we will get some very unpleasant prolonged cold rain here.

Tim A
23 February 2020 08:02:56
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7600/euro4_uk1-45-36-0_ijm7.png 

Still looking good for here on the short range models. Quite significant snowfall if these are to be believed.

Met Office warnings should be updated later this morning to bring the risk into N England .

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Crepuscular Ray
23 February 2020 08:08:55
I'm driving north tomorrow morning from Nottingham to Ilkley. Could be interesting once I'm off the A1 travelling west. The valley roads will be flooded and the moor roads snow covered. It's certainly been an interesting month for northern weatherwatchers!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
23 February 2020 08:15:12

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

I'm driving north tomorrow morning from Nottingham to Ilkley. Could be interesting once I'm off the A1 travelling west. The valley roads will be flooded and the moor roads snow covered. It's certainly been an interesting month for northern weatherwatchers!


I think unless you are travelling (very) early in the day you won’t need to worry too much about snow.


nsrobins
23 February 2020 08:29:33

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I think unless you are travelling (very) early in the day you won’t need to worry too much about snow.



I would agree except that on trend the low will track slightly further South again prolonging the period of parameters favourable for snow on a line Chester to Doncaster. Higher parts of mid and west Pennines may well collect 10cm plus before the milder wedge moves in mid morning. 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Crepuscular Ray
23 February 2020 08:41:23
Yes I broadly agree Doc but there maybe slush left over from earlier. I'm travelling between 8-10am. The Pennines usually do well for snow to rain events and showery NW flows. It will be an interesting week after such a wet and windy month 👍
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 08:47:31

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Based on most data Caz, as it currently stands, the snow will only be further north and mostly with a little elevation. Some places could get quite a bit inland in Scotland and northernmost England. Thanks to the easterly component we will get some very unpleasant prolonged cold rain here.

 Thanks Doc!  Then unless things get pushed further South, maybe I’ll have an extra half hour in bed tomorrow morning!    


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 11:10:44

Met Office have a yellow warning of snow and rain for tomorrow and  I’m right on the Southern edge.  That’ll be more rain for me then!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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idj20
23 February 2020 11:22:56

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Met Office have a yellow warning of snow and rain for tomorrow and  I’m right on the Southern edge.  That’ll be more rain for me then!  




At least I won't be losing too much sleep over this at my end.    


Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
23 February 2020 11:30:06

Originally Posted by: idj20 




At least I won't be losing too much sleep over this at my end.    



Quite.


We’ll have to wait until the middle of April for our turn 😊


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 11:38:23
Fully expecting to deal with a covering of snow at work in the morning. Grenoside is over 200m ASL so it's quite likely I'd say. It's the first day back after half term of course, so the stars will align and provide us with a tricky commute to work in the sleet and snow!
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Tim A
23 February 2020 13:16:30
Met Office warning in place now also mentions possibility of freezing rain.
Snowfall predictions really struggle when freezing rain is a possibility. I have a theory that some of the masssive totals predicted by the high res models might automatically convert any precipitation below falling at 1c and below to snow when it might actually fall as rain.
The Dec 2018 freezing rain event was one that they struggled with.

Anyway i will hopefully go for a walk in some snow about 7am tomorrow morning before it melts.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


aesmith
23 February 2020 15:34:31

Fingers crossed we don't get too much. Met Office if it can be believed is predicting 60cm of snow starting from 11:00 tomorrow. XCweather shows something in the low 30cms, and this site shows a bit less still. Have snowblower hooked up, and tractor pointing the right way for once.


-------------
Tony S
Now only 180m ASL
doctormog
23 February 2020 15:38:20
Based on xcweather we can expect several centimetres of fog here (or realistically many mm of relentless cold drizzle).
Russwirral
23 February 2020 17:33:45
A very mixed picture for snowfall tonight. Someplaces might do better than the forecast suggests.

The arpege going for something of a bigger event than others for instance.
SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2020 18:43:16


Good job I'm in the northern half of Sheffield  I agree some surprises, and disappointments, in store tomorrow morn.


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Tim A
23 February 2020 20:01:09

The NMM above looks fairly realistic to me.


Euro 4 suggests snow building here to quite significant depths till 10am, but I think that is optimistic and probably be very cold rain at 1c by then.



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


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