I think Moomin may be right the law of sod is going to toy with us again ....that huge pool of Cold air up north is going to come south at some point it makes sense it will happen just as we all want some warmth and spring sunshine .

I will take snowfall at any time of year. Seen lying snow as late as April 28th in recent years so there is plenty of time.
Lets face it most snowfalls are usually slushy/temporary /night time affairs at any time of year so whether on January 1st or April 1st it doesn't make much difference to me.

GFS 18Z continues the theme of colder PM spells and better snow potential than we have had all winter.

---

I will take snowfall at any time of year. Seen lying snow as late as April 28th in recent years so there is plenty of time.
Lets face it most snowfalls are usually slushy/temporary /night time affairs at any time of year so whether on January 1st or April 1st it doesn't make much difference to me.

GFS 18Z continues the theme of colder PM spells and better snow potential than we have had all winter.

The latest I can ever recall seeing falling snow in my neck of the woods was 12th May, in 1995. That was only a week after we had had gorgeous late spring sunshine and temps in the low-mid 20s!

---

I will take snowfall at any time of year. Seen lying snow as late as April 28th in recent years so there is plenty of time.
Lets face it most snowfalls are usually slushy/temporary /night time affairs at any time of year so whether on January 1st or April 1st it doesn't make much difference to me.

GFS 18Z continues the theme of colder PM spells and better snow potential than we have had all winter.

Agreed , never a bad time 

---

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

 

Dont know why people are  questioning your post when you look at all that bitterly cold air just North of Iceland waiting to flood South. Its just a matter of time if you ask me.Thought it would be obvious to posters in here as well. 🤔

Many mild winters in the past have been followed by snowfalls in March. 

Couple of recent Marches spring to mind which had severe cold in them. 

March 1975 was another month that delivered snowfalls to many places after a mild winter. 

GFS continuing zonal, with boost from LPs coming further south than of late and dragging in some polar maritime - e.g. Mon 24th/ Tue 25th 970mb Scotland, Sat 29th 970 mb N England, Wed 4th 980mb E Anglia; but at end of run Sun 8th the deep Atlantic low noted yesterday is standing off and pumping up warmth from the south. ECM similar to start with, but has the LP on Sat 29th over E Anglia at 975mb with northerlies behind it interrupting the zonal westerlies at least for a while.

After a few bursts of mildness in the next few days (and that mainly in the S) GEFS has a long period where the mean is a degree or two colder than the seasonal norm with the usual variability;pptn throughout and as yesterday snow row figures on a gradient from Inverness in the 20s to Plymouth in 1s and 2s.

Not unlikely that we will get cold outbursts in March as per ECM, but no sign of anything sustained ATM http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 - and the rain keeps coming, heaviest in the NW week 1 and in the S week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. Flood map now has most of the flooding in central areas as the rivers struggle to get rid of the upstream rainfall.https://www.floodalerts.com/

The jetstream hasn't given up directing disturbances across the UK though it is forecast to be somewhat further south in week 2 in line with the above

 

---

 

 

Dont know why people are  questioning your post when you look at all that bitterly cold air just North of Iceland waiting to flood South. Its just a matter of time if you ask me.Thought it would be obvious to posters in here as well. 🤔

Many mild winters in the past have been followed by snowfalls in March. 

Couple of recent Marches spring to mind which had severe cold in them. 

March 1975 was another month that delivered snowfalls to many places after a mild winter. 

Exactly this is my rationale. There is a lot of cold bottled up to our north and the jet stream is sure to weaken in the coming weeks as the PV starts its annual break up as we head towards spring. That will in my view lead to a greater chance of a more meridonal pattern setting up with winds from a  northerly or northeasterly direction, which will obviously lower temperatures considerably. That, coupled with SSTs being slightly higher than they would usually be at this time of the year due to the exceptionally mild winter, will have the potential to generate wintriness and so period of snow will certainly be on the cards.

I think that this pattern we have been stuck in basically since October will begin to wane as we head into March and early spring will therefore be considerably colder for most than we have had all winter.

 

---

 

 

Dont know why people are  questioning your post when you look at all that bitterly cold air just North of Iceland waiting to flood South. Its just a matter of time if you ask me.Thought it would be obvious to posters in here as well. 🤔

Many mild winters in the past have been followed by snowfalls in March. 

Couple of recent Marches spring to mind which had severe cold in them. 

March 1975 was another month that delivered snowfalls to many places after a mild winter. 

Except that there's been bitterly cold air north of Iceland for large parts of the winter. The issue is that the pressure patterns have not allowed it to spill south except sporadically as transient polar maritime incursions.  Indeed it’s arguable that the cold that’s been concentrated in high latitudes has been part of the reason for the very strong and sustained jet.  

If the pattern changes then the cold air may well come further south but that’s unclear and certainly there’s been no hint of the blocking we need to facilitate a cold spell rather than just a colder version of zonality.

 

Edit: pretty much in line with DEW’s good summary above.

---

 Flood map now has most of the flooding in central areas as the rivers struggle to get rid of the upstream rainfall.https://www.floodalerts.com/

Those severe flood alerts have been there for a few days now. Must be miserable for people living in or near those areas and the threat is there for more heavy rain over the next few days.
Remind me to avoid looking for properties in Hampton Bishop - 2 large rivers flowing through the same town!

---

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

It's speculative but plausible. 

 

---

Urgh, made the mistake of having a quick skeg through the 06z FGS model where that is showing a pretty unsettled first week of March (similar to the 00z run). Of course, I'm fully aware that each run shouldn't be taken in isolation when it comes to looking beyond the 7 days range but this is still not helping my mood.   

---

Urgh, made the mistake of having a quick skeg through the 06z FGS model where that is showing a pretty unsettled first week of March (similar to the 00z run). Of course, I'm fully aware that each run shouldn't be taken in isolation when it comes to looking beyond the 7 days range but this is still not helping my mood.   

Same here Ian.

It makes for poor viewing.

Mildness giving way to cooler intervals at times next week. Often wet, often windy with possibility of something slightly more stormy circa 29th ish.

---

 

Same here Ian.

It makes for poor viewing.

Mildness giving way to cooler intervals at times next week. Often wet, often windy with possibility of something slightly more stormy circa 29th ish.

 

Nothing overly mild or cold - just wet, wet, wet. Looks like we could end up with six consecutive wetter than average months in a row.

---

 

It's speculative but plausible. 

 

Question is, has there ever been a significantly lower March or March and April following such a wet and warmer than average Winter?

 

Asking for a friend.

---

I could really do with a warmer and sunnier March seeing as I finish work at the end of next week (after 19 years) and have three weeks off before starting a new job, to try and get all those annoying DIY jobs done! Doesn't look like it's going to happen though, despite the media long-rangers offering some hope in recent days.

---

I could really do with a warmer and sunnier March seeing as I finish work at the end of next week (after 19 years) and have three weeks off before starting a new job, to try and get all those annoying DIY jobs done! Doesn't look like it's going to happen though, despite the media long-rangers offering some hope in recent days.

Pleased you've got a new job sorted. Time off between jobs is one of life's great underrated pleasures IMHO. Weather doesn't look like playing ball though if dry and sunny is what you want.

---

 

Question is, has there ever been a significantly lower March or March and April following such a wet and warmer than average Winter?

 

Asking for a friend.

1975 & 1983 come to mind. Things have changed a lot since then though.  

---

1974-75 Winter was mild but it finally turned colder with easterly winds in March and April 1975. I lived in Yeadon north-west of Leeds and remember quite frequent snow showers

---

1974-75 Winter was mild but it finally turned colder with easterly winds in March and April 1975. I lived in Yeadon north-west of Leeds and remember quite frequent snow showers

Yes, I remember that in Cranleigh the  only lying snow we had that "winter" was on Good Friday. Only for a few hours as, inevitably at that time of the year, as soon as the sun came out it quickly melted.

---

Pretty much the same story from the models. Cool, wet and windy with some snow for the hills. 

Not much sign of mild SW'ly's which is a bit of a surprise.