theweatheroutlook

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 February 2020 01:38:02

To my knowledge the strongest extratropical cyclone ever had a central pressure of 914mb. We could break that over the next few days.


At Saturday at 5pm the storm


(according to the 18Z GFS) achives a MSLP of 914mb.



The ECM goes for a MSLP of 916mb. It could be close.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 February 2020 10:29:52

Latest estimate: 932mb. Already exceptional and not expeted to bottom out for more than 24 hours


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 February 2020 10:48:26

Latest model predictions:


GFS6Z: 913mb (all time record)


ECMWF: 916mb


ARPEGE: 919mb


UKMO: 920mb


ICON: 920mb


GEM: 921mb


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bertwhistle
14 February 2020 17:18:30

I can only see the 925 isobar and therefore sub-925 but not sub 915 on yesterday's 18z Op: is it one of the GEFS Ps Q?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 February 2020 18:58:44

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I can only see the 925 isobar and therefore sub-925 but not sub 915 on yesterday's 18z Op: is it one of the GEFS Ps Q?


 



No but it was at a funny time of day, 5pm I think, so you need to use hour by hour. I used meteologix, they had it down to 913hpa on the 6Z. Now its 'only' 916hpa.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
AIMSIR
14 February 2020 19:22:57

That's a big hole.


Worth keeping an 'eye" on.


Excuse the pun.

Retron
15 February 2020 06:35:55

942 at midnight this morning.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
(The link above will update every 6 hours with the latest MetO analysis chart. This is one of the few charts on the Web which has human input!)


Yesterday's 18z T+24 chart had 920, this morning's 0z T+24 has 922.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif


(This link is the "fax" chart, so called because they used to be sent out by fax machine. Like the analysis chart above, this is given the once-over by a human.)


 

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
15 February 2020 07:13:44
It’s interesting to see on that (0600z) updated chart the two centres at 931 and 932mb.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
AIMSIR
15 February 2020 09:09:11

I always loved the FAX charts.
Much more imaginative..
Rotating centres could be interesting.


We could see the 932 heading West.?.

Retron
15 February 2020 14:05:50
925 on the midday analysis!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif 
Leysdown, north Kent
Hungry Tiger
15 February 2020 14:14:58

Originally Posted by: Retron 

925 on the midday analysis!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


AIMSIR
15 February 2020 22:14:08

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 



Ditto.

Rob K
15 February 2020 22:56:52

Originally Posted by: Retron 

925 on the midday analysis!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif


922mb at 6pm. Reykjavík currently reporting 939mb and it is some way from the centre. 


edit: and Vestmannaeyjar islands to the south of Iceland 933mb and falling. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
16 February 2020 08:02:25
923 at midnight and 925 on this morning's 6z analysis chart. I suspect the final figure will be a shade lower than 922.
Leysdown, north Kent
johncs2016
16 February 2020 08:13:45

Pressure is low here in Edinburgh, reaching a minimum of 970.8mb at Edinburgh Gogarbank during the early hours of this morning. That isn't as low as what it was with Storm Ciara, but this is probably just down to the actual centre of Storm Dennis being a bit further away from here, than was the case with Storm Ciara.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
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