Whether Idle
26 January 2020 19:28:16

A finish of 6.2 fter adjustments seems quite possible to me, but could get as high as 6.4. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
27 January 2020 11:33:06

Met Office Hadley       6.5c.     Anomaly     2.8c Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                    6.42c    Anomaly     2.27c

Netweather                 6.79c    Anomal      2.6c

Peasedown St John      7.0c     Anomaly     1.72c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
28 January 2020 10:58:38

Met Office Hadley     6.5c.      Anomaly      2.7c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                  6.35c     Anomaly      2.20c

Netweather               6.77c     Anomaly      2.58

Peasedown St John   7.0c     Anomaly    1.72c.    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
29 January 2020 10:45:54

Met Office Hadley         6.4c     Anomaly      2.6c.  Provisional to28th.

Metcheck                      6.26c    Anomaly     2.11c

Netweather                   6.29c    Anomaly     2.5c

Peasedown St John      6.5c     Anomaly    1.2c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
30 January 2020 10:45:50

Met Office Hadley        6.4c.       Anomaly      2.6c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                     6.29c      Anomaly      2.13c

Netweather                  6.68c      Anomaly      2.49c

Peasedown St John      7.0c       Anomaly      1.72c            




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
30 January 2020 11:32:41

So, looks to have been an exceptionally mild month, but not record-breaking.

Locally, I'm odds-on for the mildest Jan of the 21st Century so far, just about edging out 2007 (6.97*C). Probably falling short of 1990's record-holding 7.2*C.

 

Looking ahead to Feb, a lot of +NAO regimes featuring in the modelling, but some uncertainty regarding how much of a Euro High there is alongside that.

GFS 00z didn't have much, resulting in plenty of polar maritime air incursions to keep the CET in the 'fairly mild' territory; less than a degree above the LTA as of mid-month.

The GFS 06z, on the other hand, has much more of a Euro High from 9th Feb, with some seriously balmy conditions at times and little in the way of PM air crossing England. A rough CET estimate for that one is over 2.5*C above the LTA as of 14th!

The ECM 00z looks markedly milder than both those runs for 6th-7th, as it drives in a westerly flow much quicker than GFS, preventing the 2-3 frosty nights and chilly days offered by that model.

 

Starting to contemplate whether 2019-20 will challenge the mildest winters on record .


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Keep Calm and Forecast On

Hungry Tiger
30 January 2020 14:01:05

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

So, looks to have been an exceptionally mild month, but not record-breaking.

Locally, I'm odds-on for the mildest Jan of the 21st Century so far, just about edging out 2007 (6.97*C). Probably falling short of 1990's record-holding 7.2*C.

 

Looking ahead to Feb, a lot of +NAO regimes featuring in the modelling, but some uncertainty regarding how much of a Euro High there is alongside that.

GFS 00z didn't have much, resulting in plenty of polar maritime air incursions to keep the CET in the 'fairly mild' territory; less than a degree above the LTA as of mid-month.

The GFS 06z, on the other hand, has much more of a Euro High from 9th Feb, with some seriously balmy conditions at times and little in the way of PM air crossing England. A rough CET estimate for that one is over 2.5*C above the LTA as of 14th!

The ECM 00z looks markedly milder than both those runs for 6th-7th, as it drives in a westerly flow much quicker than GFS, preventing the 2-3 frosty nights and chilly days offered by that model.

 

Starting to contemplate whether 2019-20 will challenge the mildest winters on record .

I reckon this winter will come in the top 5 mildest on record. I went for 6.0C for January and that wasn't enough. I'd be happy to go for 6.2C for February. Never be surprised though if February ended up close to 7.0C

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Spring Sun Winter Dread
30 January 2020 21:06:38
The record is going to be a tough one to beat for winter. Even 2015-16 couldn't quite manage it with such a remarkable December. I remember us watching the seasonal CET dip annoyingly just below the record horizon in the last few days of February in fact!
Global Warming
31 January 2020 06:11:03

I am not well at the moment so am unable to post any updates for the time being.


Sevendust
31 January 2020 06:17:41

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

I am not well at the moment so am unable to post any updates for the time being.

Sorry to hear mate - Hope you are better soon 

Hungry Tiger
31 January 2020 10:31:05

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

The record is going to be a tough one to beat for winter. Even 2015-16 couldn't quite manage it with such a remarkable December. I remember us watching the seasonal CET dip annoyingly just below the record horizon in the last few days of February in fact!

The one to beat is

  6.77C in 1869

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
31 January 2020 11:08:54

Met Office Hadley           6.4c.        Anomaly       2.6c.  Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                        6.39c       Anomaly       2.24c

Netweather                     6.77c       Anomaly       2.58c

Peasedown St John        7.0c         Anomaly        1.2c.      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Darren S
01 February 2020 17:23:30

The provisional CET up to and including the 31st is 6.53C (+2.71C). The final figure has not yet been confirmed.


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

Winter 2022/3: Snow Days: 0 Snow Cover Days: 0 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 0 cm Total Depth: 0 cm

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Saint Snow
03 February 2020 11:36:22

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

The provisional CET up to and including the 31st is 6.53C (+2.71C). The final figure has not yet been confirmed.

 

I'm hoping for as big a downgrade as possible! 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 February 2020 13:39:25
I'm usually good at January and screw up Feb... hopefully this year will be the converse as I have royally undercooked the mildness of Jan !
johncs2016
04 February 2020 15:49:51
The Hadley website has still to be updated with January's final CET figure (allowing for any downwards corrections), but Gavin P. did say in a recent video that the temperature anomalies across the UK as a whole, will probably be quite represenative of how that final CET figure is likely to pan out.

In addition to that, it was also confirmed by the Met Office in the weekly livestream which they put out every Tuesday afternoon on YouTube, that the UK as a whole had its 6th warmest January on record, with Scotland experiencing its 5th warmest January on record. They also confirmed that January had the lowest number of air frosts with that particular month since 1990, with even parts of Northumberland remaining completely frost-free all the way through January.

That just tells you how mild, January actually was because to me, that is kind of like the winter equivalent of parts of central southern England never, ever getting about 20°C (let alone 30°C) during a particular month within the summer.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

redmoons
06 February 2020 19:25:42
Still no update for the final figure for January, and its been completely removed now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 


Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





lanky
06 February 2020 19:38:52

Originally Posted by: redmoons 

Still no update for the final figure for January, and its been completely removed now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It looks as though the Finalised data has been partly updated but 7 days in Jan 2020 seem to be missing - presumably there are problems with the data extraction or validation on those dates from the 3 recording sites

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Global Warming
08 February 2020 16:40:04

There is missing data from Rothamsted at various points during January which is why the CET can't be finalised. Hadley will be trying to use data from other sites close to Rothamsted and then make suitable adjustments to normalise the data as close as possible to what would have likely been the Rothamsted data. Not an easy task and hence it is taking some time.

Based on the final data that has been released and the estimated data for the missing days we have a figure of 6.45C. That will likely come down a little once the final days are released. So I would expect a final figure of 6.4C.


Gavin P
09 February 2020 14:58:10

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

There is missing data from Rothamsted at various points during January which is why the CET can't be finalised. Hadley will be trying to use data from other sites close to Rothamsted and then make suitable adjustments to normalise the data as close as possible to what would have likely been the Rothamsted data. Not an easy task and hence it is taking some time.

Based on the final data that has been released and the estimated data for the missing days we have a figure of 6.45C. That will likely come down a little once the final days are released. So I would expect a final figure of 6.4C.

Thanks for letting us know what's going on GW. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

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