Well done Gusty and the other podium placers - and special mention to Col, who made a bold gambit for December that didn't come off.

 

At the time though, it didn't seem so bold. I was hardly going to do something reckless given my position. The models (in the medium term at least) were trending cold. Remember the election day snowstorm? There was a point in early December that I really thought I had an excellent chance but the cold spell fizzled to nothing and there we have it.

 

At the time though, it didn't seem so bold. I was hardly going to do something reckless given my position. The models (in the medium term at least) were trending cold. Remember the election day snowstorm? There was a point in early December that I really thought I had an excellent chance but the cold spell fizzled to nothing and there we have it.

Yes... as I reported back then, there were no clear signals either way for the CET as of the end of November. Very much pot luck, unless you have a crystal ball to hand . So, Col has every right to feel unfortunate in that regard.

You were certainly not alone either as half of us went below average.  It was a difficult month to call.  

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My cumulative error margin for Nov & Dec was nearly 4c 

Dropped from 9th to 24th

Had to make a gamble and hope it paid off. Chose the wrong gamble 

Apologies but an error has been pointed out to me in the 2019 final table. This goes way back to something I got wrong in February. The upshot is that this moves Windy Willow up several places in the table to 8th. Revised table below.

TABLE

Well done Steve, and thanks Simon!

Are you able to provide a table which shows the finishing positions of people over the last X years? I think I won it in 2018 and Steve came 2nd, or was that 2017?

I was glad to climb into the Top 10 at last, and surprised I did given December was my second biggest error of the year. I obviously didn't take a shower at the right time as Steve was originally thinking what I was. Those months which start off one way and then swing widely in the other direction, like December, are tricky to predict.

Here is an updated version of a table I published last year showing the results for every year since 2010 for those who have participated in the competition for almost all of those years. Data in orange is years missed where I have (generously) allocated the average error accumulated by everyone else in the table for that year.

TABLE

 

Here is an updated version of a table I published last year showing the results for every year since 2010 for those who have participated in the competition for almost all of those years. Data in orange is years missed where I have (generously) allocated the average error accumulated by everyone else in the table for that year.

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TABLE

Some great stats there Global. I'm pleased that last year was my best year so far in terms of both total error and final position. I'd forgotten how poor 2013 was for me!

Apologies but an error has been pointed out to me in the 2019 final table. This goes way back to something I got wrong in February. The upshot is that this moves Windy Willow up several places in the table to 8th. Revised table below.

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TABLE

Thank you for the correction. I hadn't realised it would put me in the top 10 though, which is a nice suprise!

 

Some great stats there Global. I'm pleased that last year was my best year so far in terms of both total error and final position. I'd forgotten how poor 2013 was for me!

Whereas I had forgotten that I managed a top ten position once!  OK, so it was in 2010 when there were fewer people in the competition!  

 

There's no reason why you can't get back in the top ten again this year Caz 

 

There's no reason why you can't get back in the top ten again this year Caz