Interesting indeed.

Bring on the mild 

I was a bit torn this month - went cooler than average for October and November but I'm not convinced by the currently shown cool zonality signal for December. Seen that all too often ending up chilly for Scotland, average to above for the middle of the country and just plain old mild zonality down here. 

That said last January had irrc a cool and unsettled pattern that verified so not out of the question for it to verify again this time and leave my guess 1c or so too high. Of course I've only just stumbled in to a respectable position in the table so not really that annoying if I fall back down it again

I went higher due to the amount of mobility being modelled this month Dave.

To get cold at this time of year you either need a proper sustained northerly or easterly (rare as hens teeth), quiet ridges aligning overnight or persistent high pressure. I'm not seeing any of that.

This current cold spell edges away from NW biaised CET area sooner this week. This current early December cold snap see's the coldest overnight temperatures in the SE.

Fingers crossed by this time next week the current 'dent' would have been backfilled by an array of windy ridge free nights.

I'm hoping Mr Ally Pally Snowman wins this month.

 

 

The latest GFS 12z is smelling the coffee.  It's about time I won a month. 

Hmm!  Cold, mild!  I’m not convinced either way but I went below average.  I’m so far down the table, even a spot on guess won’t make much difference but I’m really enjoying the ride.  

Good luck guys!  It’s been a roller coaster year and it’s not over yet!  

 

Correct me if i'm wrong but for Col to win the cet needs to be below 4.40.

For a Gusty win it has to be above 5.13

Anything in between the 2 values and gezM wins

Very good contest with the leaders' predictions well spread.

So basically just a slightly below average month and I will win. After turning milder for a few days by the end of this week it's trending towards cool/cold zonality. There is even talk of an election day snowstorm! However any significant period of mild zonal long fetch SW type conditions and I'm scuppered!

I'm hoping Mr Ally Pally Snowman wins this month.

So do I. If he wins, I win :)

Met Office Hadley          2.4c.      Anomaly        -2.6c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                       2.37c     Anomaly        -2.67c

Netweather                    2.14c     Anomaly        -2.97c

Peasedown St John     2.9c       Anomaly       -3.67c.

Last years figures for this time was in the 9's - 10's - 11's     

Aaaagh! Not again! Degrees below everyone else! Is this just wishful thinking, or am I failing to learn from mistakes?

 

 

So do I. If he wins, I win :)

If he wins, we all win!

Met Office Hadley             3.1c.       Anomaly        -1.9c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                          2.70c.     Anomaly        -2.30c

Netweather                       3.06c       Anomaly       -2.05c

Peasedown St John       3.9c          Anomaly        -2.07c.

Met Office Hadley            3.1c.         Anomaly        -1.7c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                         2.91c        Anomaly        -2.04c

Netweather                      3.15c        Anomaly        -1.96c

Peasedown St John        3.7c         Anomaly         -2.27c.

Met Office Hadley            4.0c.         Anomaly      -1.2c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                         4.0c         Anomaly       -0.99c

Netweather                      3.73c       Anomaly       -1.38c

Peasedown St John     4.3c         Anomaly         -1.69c.

Met Office Hadley          4.7c.       Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                       4.9c       Anomaly       -0.5c

Netweather                    4.86c     Anomaly      -0.3 

Peasedown St John     5.4c       Anomaly     -v-.37c.

No clear overall anomaly signals from the modelling of late; for example today's 12z GFS run increases the CET estimate to about half a degree above the LTA as of 15th, only to ease back down to within 0.2*C of the LTA as of 23rd, a closeness exhibited by the majority of GFS runs in the past few days.

Generally, very mixed conditions with some substantial warm sectors (temps 11-14*C) interchanging with polar maritime air of varying chill.

Longer-term, hints that we might see some manner of tropical wave propagation to try and encourage higher-latitude ridge positions in our vicinity, but no clear sign (yet, at least) that it will be strong enough to achieve much.

Reasons like this being why my CET guess this month was even less inspiring than the political climate .

Here is the latest December CET tracker

CET rising fast at the moment and looks like settling down around 6C and then trending a little lower around mid-month.

CHART1

CHART2

Here is the latest December CET tracker

CET rising fast at the moment and looks like settling down around 6C and then trending a little lower around mid-month.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

CHART1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

CHART2

I didn't know there was an emoji for 'smug face' :)

But yes, I think this one is slipping away from me now. I'm not ready to admit defeat quite yet as the final third of the month could still throw something up but it doesn't look good now for a below average CET.

 I didn't know there was an emoji for 'smug face' :)

But yes, I think this one is slipping away from me now. I'm not ready to admit defeat quite yet as the final third of the month could still throw something up but it doesn't look good now for a below average CET.

It's not a smug face. Its an 'approve' face. 

Smugness is actually a trait I detest Col. Especially when it comes to this competition. 

 

It's not a smug face. Its an 'approve' face. 

Smugness is actually a trait I detest Col. Especially when it comes to this competition. 

Hey OK, I was only joking!

 

Hey OK, I was only joking!