looks to me like its the Euro,s v gfs no surprise there then. Nothing set in stone of course but looking at the gfs run archive from just two, three days ago it is definitely moving in the direction of the Euro,s. Post t168 which should be viewed with deep scepticism the ecm run at t240 oozes potential. I for one am hopeful for the trend to continue with better synoptic and colder runs to come over the coming days.
One thing I have noticed on the strat charts is that although the fi stages of the runs has watered down the warming a little, the warming is now starting to show much earlier with the first signs at t192. No sign from what I can see of a full SSW yet but then again you don't always need one.