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17C in December. Its a no from me.
Great for canvassing and will boost turnout if election day is mild and dry
It would be however it is one scenario from the ensembles and many of the other anticyclonic options are somewhat more seasonal
To me that suggests the likelihood is a fairly cool start to December after a mild blip at the weekend. But a chance of the milder air hanging on.
The fact that the MetO updates over the past few days have been mentioning the possibility of wintry precipitation over high ground at times over as we head towards December suggests to me that even if it does turn somewhat milder compared to recently, it is unlikely to be especially mild. At least in the north, that is.
Screaming northerly on the trusty GFS 06z. Perhaps it's time for the much maligned "toppler" to make a comeback.
That chart sure is a thing of beauty
Edit: and technically, isn't that very much a positive NAO
That chart sure is a thing of beauty Edit: and technically, isn't that very much a positive NAO
Except the operational is nearly at the bottom of the ensemble pack by then....
Pft! Mere detail. Begone with your curmudgeon.
If that came off, it could be a bit more than a toppler - signs of a Greenland High developing. However, it is presumably only once of many options given the spread in the ensembles. Still, nice to look at...
In the same way the 00z op model was at the top at the end of the run. Both are equally extreme/likely/unlikely. (Although realistically no doubt the milder option is more probable).
The old SSW malarkey is around:
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1196413242672926722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Prospects of an SSW in early December are improving, but as we saw in January this year, they do not necessarily deliver the goodies in our neck of the woods.
The old SSW malarkey is around:https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1196413242672926722?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwProspects of an SSW in early December are improving, but as we saw in January this year, they do not necessarily deliver the goodies in our neck of the woods.
Yes and with the probability of a switch from a westerly QBO to an easterly some time in the next couple of months - in theory at least the two combined (or in proximity) should increase the chances of colder weather types later in the winter. Thats my current thinking anyway....though this can also be masked by just plain old climatology as that'll normally the coldest period of the year anyway.
Waiting for the SSW last year was like pulling teeth.
Waiting for the SSW last year was like...
...waiting for a Northern Rail train
"...people kept saying one was on the way, but it never seemed to arrive and when it finally did, it didn't do much"
Or a ScotRail train.
Hi David, I'd say even better, the Caledonian Sleeper...just enjoyed a 100% refund on the trip the other week to Inverness..Sleeper was more than an hour late, so all our money back...even better the scenery north of Pitlochry was stunning which we could see in daylight... snow on the tops at Dromachter.... I was tempted to book another trip based on the likelihood of the service being late and us getting our money back again....apols for the completely off topic post! I can't really contribute to this thread in a meaningful manner really!
Nice
I see the GFS 12z op shows another brief northerly passing through towards the end of the month https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_252_1.png
Maybe, maybe just maybe a hint of significant cold appearing in the start of December. Probably only a 20% chance at this stage but worth keeping an eye on . Some hope for Coldies.