Thank you GW!  

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Yes, I'm happy with my prediction as things stand at the moment. By the end of next week it should turn milder with somewhat above average temps and after dipping a little below my prediction of 6.58C, the figure will rise again. Factoring in the downgrade I don't think I will be too far off this month.

Then I should be very happy with my prediction of 6.5c.  It’s too late for me to catch the leaders but it would be nice to go up the table instead of down!  

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Cheers as always GW. I hope your latest estimate is spot-on, or better yet, 0.02*C too low .

Frankly, if it does end up within such a small margin for the third month running, I'll be wondering what on Earth is going on .

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Then I should be very happy with my prediction of 6.5c.  It’s too late for me to catch the leaders but it would be nice to go up the table instead of down!  

 

You'll pass me on my way down!

The phrase 'what was I thinking?' springs to mind...

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Last week of the month the temperature goes  up daytime.

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Met Office Hadley           6.6c.      Anomaly      -0.7c. Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                        6.50c     Anomaly      -0.43c

Netweather                     7.13c     Anomaly       0.24c

Peasedown St John        7.1c.     Anomaly       -0.5c.

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Met Office Hadley      6.5c     Anomaly    -0.7c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                   6.28c   Anomaly    -0.65c

Netweather                6.98c   Anomaly     0.09c

Peasedown St John   6.9c.     Anomaly    -0.7c.   

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Met Office Hadley       6.3c.     Anomaly     -0.8c.  Provisional to   19th

Metcheck                    6.17c    Anomaly     -0.75c

Netweather                 6.77c    Anomaly     -0.24c

Peasedown St John    6.8c.    Anomaly     -0.8c.  

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Met Office Hadley        6.3c.     Anomaly    -0.9c.   Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                     6.07c    Anomaly    -0.85c

Netweather                  6.7c      Anomaly    =0.21c

Peasedown St John     6.8c    Anomaly      -0.8c.   

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Staying down and will probably fall again after a cold one today.  I fear my 6.5c is too high!  

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Staying down and will probably fall again after a cold one today.  I fear my 6.5c is too high!  

Well I went for just a touch higher than you and I'm still pretty confident. The figure hasn't fallen too low and there is certainly milder weather on the way. Nothing exceptional but quite a few days of it as far as I can interpret so that will push the figure back up towards what we predicted. There's always that downgrade to consider of course though, why is it always a downgrade, is there ever an *up*grade??

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I am struggling to remember a November so utterly devoid of any mild weather as this one. The cold ones like 1993, 1996 and 2010 as I recall, contained some very mild days early on which were counteracted by very cold weather later on. This year we seem to have spent most of the month stuck in "slightly below average " mode. Maybe the last week will supply some. Would certainly help my 7.2c guess...

I am struggling to remember a November so utterly devoid of any mild weather as this one. The cold ones like 1993, 1996 and 2010 as I recall, contained some very mild days early on which were counteracted by very cold weather later on. This year we seem to have spent most of the month stuck in "slightly below average " mode. Maybe the last week will supply some. Would certainly help my 7.2c guess...

The first few days of this month were pretty mild though.

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Met Office Hadley        6.2c.     Anomaly     -0.9c.  Provisional to21st.

Metcheck                     6.03c    Anomaly     -0.89c

Netweather                  6.6c      Anomaly     -0.31c

Peasedown St John    6.7c      Anomaly      -0.9c.

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Well I went for just a touch higher than you and I'm still pretty confident. The figure hasn't fallen too low and there is certainly milder weather on the way. Nothing exceptional but quite a few days of it as far as I can interpret so that will push the figure back up towards what we predicted. There's always that downgrade to consider of course though, why is it always a downgrade, is there ever an *up*grade??

Oh yes, upgrades do happen but only when you go too low!  

Yes it looks like we’re in for a few milder days but the end of month downgrade is what I’ll be watching out for too!

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Quite a shift in the figures over the past few days. My CET estimate has come down quite a bit. The warmer weather has taken longer to arrive than expected. Also the models now picking up on a cool down in the final 2-3 days of the month.

Latest November CET estimate is just 6.33C. I am currently running 0.38C below Hadley so quite a big downward adjustment looks likely.

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Quite a shift in the figures over the past few days. My CET estimate has come down quite a bit. The warmer weather has taken longer to arrive than expected. Also the models now picking up on a cool down in the final 2-3 days of the month.

Latest November CET estimate is just 6.33C. I am currently running 0.38C below Hadley so quite a big downward adjustment looks likely.

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Won't be enough for me though sadly; I'll be sliding downwards after this month, and you'll be among those who tread on my head as you go past!

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Met Office Hadley        6.2c.     Anomaly      -0.8c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                    6.10c     Anomaly      -0.82c

Netweather                 6.64c     Anomaly      -0.27c

Peasedown St John    6.7c      Anomaly      -0.9c.  

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Mean was 4.9C here up to Tuesday but four days of SE'ly rot have raised that to 5.3C so highly likely to finish above the long term average of 5.8C.

Mean min is already above average of 3.3C, at 3.5C having been at 3.0C. With more horribly mild nights likely it could get as high as 4.5C which would equal the fourth highest in my record behind the diabolical SE'ly dominated catastrophies of 2011, 2014 and 2018 all of which recorded ridiculous mean mins of 6C+. For a mild SW'ly dominated November the highest min was 4.5C in 2006.

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Mey Office Hadley        6.2c.      Anomaly     -0.7c.  Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                     6.18c      Anomaly     -0.74c

Netweather                  6.73c      Anomaly     -0.8c

Peasedown St John    6.8c      Anomaly     -0.8c.

IMansfield12        5.8c. 2019.   November 2019  7.9c.     

 

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