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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,036  Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month!
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Originally Posted by: Gooner Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues Some decent blocked charts around has to be said whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣 some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,255
Location: Wirral
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GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run. Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,247 Location: Staffordshire
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Originally Posted by: Russwirral GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.
Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum
All too early for anything decent unfortunately. |
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 6,145
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s Here are the ensembles. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉 |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 2,270
Location: Essex
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire All too early for anything decent unfortunately. no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England
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Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,667
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,272 Location: Folkestone
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For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet.  
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,667
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,912 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind. |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,869
Location: West Sussex
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Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season. Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,692  Location: South East Gloucestershire
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Originally Posted by: White Meadows Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.
I think it's already arrived |
Rob Mostly in South East Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL. Sometimes in South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/02/2018(UTC) Posts: 133 Location: Lancing SE Coast
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Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. Edited by user 08 November 2019 01:24:04(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,869
Location: West Sussex
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Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again. 2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,247 Location: Staffordshire
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Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. Yep and everything is pointing to a zonal December. As you say 2010 didn't begin until the end of the month. |
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 60,667
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I'll start a new thread at 7:30am. |
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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