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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 2,434
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Gooner  12z looking blocked indeed Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 42,773 
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,965 Location: Forest Gate London
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Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.
Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative. Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather. North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc. Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 27,308 Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month!
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,313 Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border
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Originally Posted by: Gooner Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues Some decent blocked charts around has to be said whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣 some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure |
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir Near the Leics/ Notts Border 495 Feet Above Sea Level
Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer" Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special" December 2015- "Floodfest Horror" 2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"
The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,634
Location: Wirral
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GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run. Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 5,880 Location: Staffordshire
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Originally Posted by: Russwirral GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.
Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum
All too early for anything decent unfortunately. |
'They said there'd be snow at Christmas, they said there'd be peace on earth, but instead it just kept on raining, a veil of tears for the zonal dirge'
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 2,434
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s Here are the ensembles. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,373
Location: Essex
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire All too early for anything decent unfortunately. no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold
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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
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Location: Central Southern England
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Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,500 Location: Folkestone
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For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet.  
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Rank: Administration
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,333 Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind. |
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,074
Location: West Sussex
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Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season. Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 3,738  Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: White Meadows Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.
I think it's already arrived |
Rob Sometimes a few miles north of Cambridge on a hill in the flatlands of East Anglia 15m ASL Other times in south east Gloucestershire near the River Thames 75m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/02/2018(UTC) Posts: 123 Location: Lancing SE Coast
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Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. Edited by user 08 November 2019 01:24:04(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,074
Location: West Sussex
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Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again. 2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 5,880 Location: Staffordshire
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Originally Posted by: Argyle77 Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!
Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already. Yep and everything is pointing to a zonal December. As you say 2010 didn't begin until the end of the month. |
'They said there'd be snow at Christmas, they said there'd be peace on earth, but instead it just kept on raining, a veil of tears for the zonal dirge'
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 48,448
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I'll start a new thread at 7:30am. |
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