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Offline Whether Idle  
#941 Posted : 06 November 2019 19:58:11(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,085
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....

 its the way you tell them. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline doctormog  
#942 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:00:34(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 73,981

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

 its the way you tell them. 

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#943 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:21:47(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 5,454
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  

Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline idj20  
#944 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:33:10(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 

Offline Bertwhistle  
#945 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:58:52(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,596
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)

 

Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline doctormog  
#946 Posted : 06 November 2019 22:11:18(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 73,981

More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline ballamar  
#947 Posted : 07 November 2019 05:09:11(UTC)
ballamar

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Posts: 1,850
Location: Essex

Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
Offline Gooner  
#948 Posted : 07 November 2019 06:41:53(UTC)
Gooner

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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario

Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?

 

But nice to see all the same 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline DEW  
#949 Posted : 07 November 2019 07:37:08(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Briefly this morning:

GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK

ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed

GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#950 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:32:00(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Posts: 5,454
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#951 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:52:34(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Man
Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.

New world order coming.
Offline Gooner  
#952 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:53:04(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline The Beast from the East  
#953 Posted : 07 November 2019 11:26:28(UTC)
The Beast from the East

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Location: Purley, Surrey

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow

 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Offline Gooner  
#954 Posted : 07 November 2019 13:12:50(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow

 

Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Rob K  
#955 Posted : 07 November 2019 13:25:04(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 23,982
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 

We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.

 

But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.

 

Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...

Edited by user 07 November 2019 13:31:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#956 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:29:23(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 5,454
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

This is starting to get interesting

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline Gooner  
#957 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:30:43(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 44,769
Man

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

This is starting to get interesting

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

12z looking blocked indeed 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#958 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:39:01(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 5,454
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

 

12z looking blocked indeed 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline Gooner  
#959 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:47:33(UTC)
Gooner

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,769
Man

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#960 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:50:47(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,965
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  

Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.

Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.

North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.

Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

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