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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,188  Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: doctormog  Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather.... its the way you tell them. 
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Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 74,683
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle  its the way you tell them. 


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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 6,144 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze  He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.    Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂 |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,036  Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂 We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :) Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry? |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 74,683
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 2,270 Location: Essex
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Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197 
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Originally Posted by: ballamar  Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh? But nice to see all the same |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 17,449  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Briefly this morning: GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up) |
"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze" |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 6,144 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite. |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197 
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 46,256  Location: Purley, Surrey
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Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow |
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197 
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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East  Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues Some decent blocked charts around has to be said |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC) Posts: 24,266 Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: idj20 
We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 
We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course. But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end. Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter... 
Edited by user 07 November 2019 13:31:23(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl "But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 6,144 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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This is starting to get interesting https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197 
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  This is starting to get interesting https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png 12z looking blocked indeed |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 6,144 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Gooner  12z looking blocked indeed Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 45,197 
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013  Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow. Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,971  Location: Forest Gate London
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Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.
Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative. Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather. North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc. Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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