The jet stream continues to be strong and over England or just to the S before swinging N and dissipating over N Europe, for several days to come. Consequently any blocking is well east and north, though HP appears briefly over Scandi from time to time. UK has lots of LPs moving through, though both GFS and ECM have a more 'traditional' deep LP off Scotland around the 16th, and BBC last night suggested a deep LP settling in the N Sea in a few days' time with unpleasant easterlies.

Ensembles cold and damp, perhaps more than damp in the S, but with temps slowly recovering and back to near normal around the 16th and after

Much too early to make a call but a few recent runs have high pressure blocking slipping SE and the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive. Were that to happen it would suggest less cold conditions as we head towards the meteorological winter, GFS 06z here https://t.co/j0dz4HVnip pic.twitter.com/4rm7Gclo2x

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 6, 2019

Much too early to make a call but a few recent runs have high pressure blocking slipping SE and the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive. Were that to happen it would suggest less cold conditions as we head towards the meteorological winter, GFS 06z here https://t.co/j0dz4HVnip pic.twitter.com/4rm7Gclo2x

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 6, 2019

I'm certainly not convinced anything particularly cold is heading our way anytime soon.  It looks more like a 13/14 winter than a 09/10 one. Having said that we live in hope . And perhaps the Brexit winter will be a famously cold and snowy one.

 

 

I'm certainly not convinced anything particularly cold is heading our way anytime soon.  It looks more like a 13/14 winter than a 09/10 one. Having said that we live in hope . And perhaps the Brexit winter will be a famously cold and snowy one.

 

Just gone through the 20 runs and again there are some mad charts in there - granted no stella runs but an awful lot of blocking 

Temperatures during the next seven days are forecast to max at around 7-8C in London.

We can get these values sometimes on a straight northerly.

I want to see the current pattern continue and hopefully we will start to see even colder air.

.

You have a good point about cold winds from certain directions, first week of November and apparently whole of Finland below zero today 

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/weather/inari/saariselka?map=temperaturemax

And already there is coastal sea ice in Baltic (some years it is early December)

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

The change today in the models compared with the more amplified options we have seen the last few days and especially the difference between the 0z ecm and the 12z from yesterday really brings home to me the folly of 1) looking beyond a week at most and 2) any in depth discussion on what the models are showing beyond this time frame other than a passing remark perhaps.

The ecm 0z run today could not look more different than yesterdays 12z that is why I hardly ever comment these days in the model output thread unless of course winter nivarna was being modeled within t120 which it rarely is. Several times already this autumn we have seen the models try and amplify the pattern with northern blocking etc only for it to implode within t168.

Model watching is fun but can be a complete waste of time as well especially when like netweather every run is analysed to death and outdated within a day or two. 

Just looked at my Weather Pro weather app (uses data from ECM/EPS if I recall).

No sign of double figures in Manchester for the foreseeable future (right through to 13th November).

I would guess that is relatively unusual for the time of year. 

Cold and unsettled. 

417 consecutive months of above average temperatures globally

Incredible 

Info from C Fawkes 

October was actually colder than average for the UK 

Just gone through the 20 runs and again there are some mad charts in there - granted no stella runs but an awful lot of blocking 

Again strength of zonal winds @10hpa will be weakening after strengthening towards middle and end of November:

NAO around neutral but AO going very negative:

+4.

Very Slow 12z GFS today.

Climate Change is happening mr Trump.

Nice to see UKMO and ICON give Central and East to NE USA SW to NE moving Jet STm PV Lows.

Blocking Far East and SE USA, West N Atlantic with High P.

Newfoundland PV Low head SE on Saturday and Sunday to Northwest Atlantic then push it SE wards through Central N Atlantic and to West Europe and the UK.

GFS- America. Nice to see UKMO and ICON models High Pressure over Greenland and Iceland plus Norwegian Sea and Arctic High = Negative AO and NAO.

What will this evenings ECMWF show us UK people- wet and windy November weather with below average temperatures or near average.

I am able handle GFS and ECMWF and others flip flopping each 24 hours.

.

GFS 12z Model Output looks very good for the North Atlantic UK and Europe - domination of Cool and Chilly weather some cold conditions- average and below average temperatures and plenty of Low Pressure tracking from the NW - SE wards hmm.

Happy with ICON, UKMO and GFS.

High Pressure to our North and NW and NE, and also in Central to East USA - more further SE there you go...

Western N Atlantic High Pressure- NE USA PV Low yes, but through North USA areas that is good.

Cold Zonality in November is being shown for UK and West Europe. Greenland and Iceland Cold high pressure and same over the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Sea to our North and NE.

.

This evening's ECMWF Output is hopefully going to support this forecast for Saturday and Next week, and also this week Thursday and Friday UK wet and windy chilly weather. Cold and chilly on Saturday- Sunday as well.

Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:

Seeing a favorable Siberia-Aleutian pattern emerge in 1-2 weeks that supports upward wave flux into the stratosphere. This will likely result in a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event" during December. No telling whether this event is minor or major at these leads. pic.twitter.com/dNhvbzEigN

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) November 6, 2019

No point looking at specifics but GFS looks against the norm with heights inflating all around, would suggest something is brewing. Will change next run but interesting to see

yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. 

 

yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. 

Indeed, or come to nothing at all!

A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)

Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:

 

 

Seeing a favorable Siberia-Aleutian pattern emerge in 1-2 weeks that supports upward wave flux into the stratosphere. This will likely result in a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event" during December. No telling whether this event is minor or major at these leads. pic.twitter.com/dNhvbzEigN

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) November 6, 2019

 

He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.