nsrobins
05 November 2019 14:08:05

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

 

Certainly raised an eye brow from me Neil wink

Now I know the silly season has started ๐Ÿ˜‰๐Ÿ˜‚

Whether this very early promise develops or not it’s certainly (on paper) not the usual zonal dross. The majority of the long range seasonal output remains on the mild and wet side for W Europe but they’ve been mugged off before and might be again.

For an excellent running analysis of the latest trends and thinking I’d recommend Gavin P’s site and his weekly round-up.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Heavy Weather 2013
05 November 2019 16:12:12

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ ๐Ÿ˜‰

Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.

This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.

It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
05 November 2019 16:25:43

.

The GFS is starting to come in line about that Eastern Canada and Newfoundland Low Pressure that is modelled today from ICON and UKMO- to start entering the UK at about 120, 144 hrs from today.

Crossing NW Atlantic and tracking SE, but losing the cold air as it mixes into less cold air in North Atlantic.

Blocking over SW Norwegian Sea to our North, and in Iceland and Greenland is showing up, GFS, UKMO and ICON show that cold air, but it is coldest over Central and North Greenland and Iceland and to the North and NE of the Norwegian Sea.

That Deep Low might weaken as we see more updates over next 5 days- a downgrade maybe possible.

If that cold air to our North and NE wraps in more closer around this SE Tracking PV Low that is to move SE from NE USA Newfoundland at 96-120 hours, it needs to really be strong and windy one to be able to drag colder East and NE winds if it does move SE from the UK after Tuesday next week.

The GFS, ICON and UKMO also have more Deep Low's over Eastern and Northern Canada shown in today's 12z run, moving to Eastern NE Canada and West to NW of Newfoundland at T120 - T144hrs.

With High Pressure over Greenland and Norwegian Sea and Iceland and Western N. Atlantic Eastern USA maybe there is some optimism I cannot guarantee- more updates will give accurate picture for November 10th to 12th et all.


We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.



LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
05 November 2019 16:37:40

.

Deep Cold Pooling with Low Pressure Vortex Arctic Cold PV NE and East Canada and the whole of Greenland next week.

11th to 13th November, UK Low moving to West Europe and remain strong- weaken a little over UK, but quite wet and windy on Monday to Tuesday and even Wednesday.

Eastern US and Western North Atlantic at that time period: High Pressure.

Not much cold air in the UK for this forecast period, but cool and wet with rain and scattered showers definately possible..

Post Update. At T144 Monday 11 Nov. if the Greenland Block remains strong to Tuesday and Wednesday 12-13 Nov. and get the NE Canada PV Low to get stuck there that will allow cold air to our North to increase, to the NW and N. Atlantic as well, with cold NE Winds that could persist there from November 10th to 13th.

The ICON and UKMO look as good, but the GFS does not like it so it gives Greenland Low Pressure and cold West SW winds from NE Canada instead!!.

I wonder how this evening's ECMWF model with pan out for said period??


We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.



nsrobins
05 November 2019 17:40:13

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.

It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.

There’s a first time for everything Mark (ref. your first sentence).๐Ÿ˜‰


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

JACKO4EVER
05 November 2019 17:41:39
More temptation deep in FI, jam tomorrow for sure. Wether itโ€™s a tasty jam roly poly or just a plain jam butty remains to be seen, but I hope itโ€™s not another winter in the offing thatโ€™s only played out in the deepest of model output timeframes. Iโ€™m not sure I could take another one of those.
Brian Gaze
05 November 2019 18:38:42

Didn't we have a similar sort of set-up going into a winter a number of years ago? Blocking built to the north and east as we headed towards December and people were speculating about the cold air flooding westwards. I remember thinking to myself at the time that the end result was as predictable as Ronald Koeman's famous free kick against England in 1993. Sure enough the blocking gradually slipped away eastwards and the Atlantic took over. Therefore I am holding back and waiting to see what transpires.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
05 November 2019 18:41:20
Interesting to see that the t850hPa GEFS mean is around or below -4 to -5ยฐC here for the next five days and as low as -7ยฐC on Friday now. Nit expecting to see anything wintry but it will certainly feel quite chilly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 


Brian Gaze
05 November 2019 18:48:18

ECM 192 is quite fin.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
05 November 2019 18:54:32
The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.
JACKO4EVER
05 November 2019 19:00:22

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

fair comment, for how long though remains to be seen. 

ballamar
05 November 2019 19:38:47
ECM on the verge of very cold spell finely balanced
Gandalf The White
05 November 2019 20:02:39

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

That's a good, succinct summary.  Not unusual for this time of the year: you need something fairly exceptional for notable cold or warmth and we have neither in the offing, just some interesting evolutions.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Heavy Weather 2013
05 November 2019 20:05:04

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

This is a very fair summary. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Bertwhistle
05 November 2019 20:33:31

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ ๐Ÿ˜‰

Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.

That's a really good way of illustrating it. The current evidence vs the LT patterns at this time of year/ under these synoptics, a dichotomy of commitments in the models, with lows pushing S again and again but almost as if they're not being allowed to be modelled to set up in a certain way. Are analogous models in the throes of evolution?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Shropshire
05 November 2019 22:10:53

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

ECM on the verge of very cold spell finely balanced

Don't like to see these synoptics in November (unless it is the end of the month), they've pretty much always led to strongly zonal Decembers in my experience.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
David M Porter
05 November 2019 22:28:22

From what I remember, November 2010 saw synoptics during the first two-thirds of the month that were not too dissimilar to the current output. I do recall that in my neck of the woods, it was a much less wet and less mild November overall than the corresponding month a year earlier.


"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
dagspot
05 November 2019 22:29:00

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

always led to strongly zonal Decembers

Any year examples/charts?


Neilston 600ft ASL
Gandalf The White
05 November 2019 23:38:29

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

 

Any year examples/charts?

My advice is to ignore Stropshire: this is the style he adopts every year, AKA trolling.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Heavy Weather 2013
06 November 2019 06:53:51
Temperatures during the next seven days are forecast to max at around 7-8C in London.

We can get these values sometimes on a straight northerly.

I want to see the current pattern continue and hopefully we will start to see even colder air.

There are a lot of rainfall spikes still appearing, I wonder if areas to could under the right circumstances see the odd evaporative cooling event if things are a slack.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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