November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

Something like February 1998, 2008 or 2019 would be nice.

I remember the winter of '08-09 as I was halfway through a 365 photography mission and there were a lot of lovely hazy light in the Winter/early Spring season. On the other hand, Nov 2010 was very wet and unsettled and we can all remember what happened next. But of course, no two years are ever exactly alike with our mid-latitude climate.

Back on topic, the 12z GFS as well as the ECM are too painful to look at for too long, even if most of it are in the form of "cold" cyclonic activity. Much rather have a cold high being close to us.  

ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see

Another day, another take on the pressure pattern.

GFS which yesterday was keen on a Scandi high with ridge to UK has now put establishment of HP in Scandi back a few days (to ca 13th) and even then little sign of a ridge in this direction. Instead we continue through this coming week and into the next with LP centres, nothing very deep, moving across Britain, though later on (again, ca 13th) they tend to stall and decay in situ. This allows more of a S flow and GEFS reflects this with most runs going from slightly below to slightly above average temps. Rainfall predictions on GFS show some rain everywhere and continuing for the forecast period.

ECM (yesterday's 12z) is stiil with the Scandi high and ridging at the end of its run, around the 11th.

Both GFS and ECM are coming up with a similar idea of HP ridging in from both SW and NE thus putting the UK under a slack no-man's land set up by around the 11th Nov. Until then we still have to put up with LP rattling in from the Atlantic one after the other, although the saving grace is they appear to be as decaying features so the outlook for next week may be classed as "changeable" rather than "unsettled". 

 

 

If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 

Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

Just wanted to share this from weather is cool - the forecast for strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa:

Seems interesting!? Could all change of course but for now at least - all models showing a weakened zonal flow into December and some even going into reverse!?

If only....?

 

Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 

Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

GFS has a different take on a blocking high this morning, sbecoming prminent over Scandi from the 7th but only for a week, and then retreating into Russia where it eventually reaches 1050mb. Both temp and precip below normal over Scandi for the coming week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 though the Baltic could get a lot of snow later on.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, the blocking directs a series of not very deep depressions across the UK from NW to SE (though with the caveat that yesterday's storm was forecast not very deep at one stage) and eventually (from 13th) a bit deeper but stalling them off the W of Ireland.

ECM has a similar procession of depressions but without the benefit of a Scandi high until ca 12th when it emerges with a stong ridge to a mid-Atlantic high. ECM and GFS - both today's 0z - are dramatically different for the 13th

GEFS continues generally unsettled and on the cold side, though several runs are back to average temps or above later on.

Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

I'll take that!

It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen snow here in  November, in fact it's snowed here in each of the last 5 Novembers however I'd be very surprised to get anything like that amount if any snow at all.

The tops of the Malverns might well see a flake or two.

One thing that I noticed on this morning's GEFS is that there is less scatter than usual among the members for the whole forecast period covered (and a great deal less than on some GEFS predictions).

First really wintry GFS run of the season (I think). Disruptive snow in parts of the UK during the middle third of November if it verified. (Looks unlikely at this stage) https://t.co/FNCCzfKawt pic.twitter.com/VtUNgsKu6t

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 3, 2019

It looks interesting for sure and if it were to become a gradual transition into winter it would be very interesting. At this stage it raises half an eyebrow out of curiosity. The persistence of blocking across various areas to the north is beginning to get my attention but it could as we all know disappear without anything notable coming to fruition.

Yes it is interesting to get the blocking in these places so early on!? Hope this can be a continuing trend!?

Both GFS OP and Control has us in a northerly on 14th Nov - but this has to be an outliar!? Many places not getting above freezing all day!? Typical as i shall be heading off to Budapest for birthday - where at the mom it looks balmy with more chance of getting a white birthday here ha!?

All JFF as it's one model and one run but something to keep an eye on?

Control: the Uppers with -10 @ 850hpa knocking on northern Scotland:

GFS OP