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Offline LeedsLad123  
#861 Posted : 01 November 2019 18:18:01(UTC)
LeedsLad123

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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

Something like February 1998, 2008 or 2019 would be nice.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Online idj20  
#862 Posted : 01 November 2019 18:57:12(UTC)
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I remember the winter of '08-09 as I was halfway through a 365 photography mission and there were a lot of lovely hazy light in the Winter/early Spring season. On the other hand, Nov 2010 was very wet and unsettled and we can all remember what happened next. But of course, no two years are ever exactly alike with our mid-latitude climate.

Back on topic, the 12z GFS as well as the ECM are too painful to look at for too long, even if most of it are in the form of "cold" cyclonic activity. Much rather have a cold high being close to us.  

Edited by user 01 November 2019 18:58:28(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline doctormog  
#863 Posted : 01 November 2019 19:18:02(UTC)
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Yes, cool and unsettled (very unsettled at times) seems to sum up the current outlook.
Offline Nick Gilly  
#864 Posted : 01 November 2019 21:39:30(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

 

If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

Offline doctormog  
#865 Posted : 01 November 2019 21:46:14(UTC)
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It does seem like quite a nasty little feature especially along the south coast. Here is the GFS 18z take on it:

Isobars https://www.wetterzentra.../maps/GFSOPUK18_15_1.png

Gusts (in kph not mph) https://www.wetterzentra...maps/GFSOPUK18_15_19.png

Offline ballamar  
#866 Posted : 01 November 2019 22:52:23(UTC)
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Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see
Offline DEW  
#867 Posted : 02 November 2019 07:16:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see

Another day, another take on the pressure pattern.

GFS which yesterday was keen on a Scandi high with ridge to UK has now put establishment of HP in Scandi back a few days (to ca 13th) and even then little sign of a ridge in this direction. Instead we continue through this coming week and into the next with LP centres, nothing very deep, moving across Britain, though later on (again, ca 13th) they tend to stall and decay in situ. This allows more of a S flow and GEFS reflects this with most runs going from slightly below to slightly above average temps. Rainfall predictions on GFS show some rain everywhere and continuing for the forecast period.

ECM (yesterday's 12z) is stiil with the Scandi high and ridging at the end of its run, around the 11th.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Online idj20  
#868 Posted : 02 November 2019 10:32:03(UTC)
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Both GFS and ECM are coming up with a similar idea of HP ridging in from both SW and NE thus putting the UK under a slack no-man's land set up by around the 11th Nov. Until then we still have to put up with LP rattling in from the Atlantic one after the other, although the saving grace is they appear to be as decaying features so the outlook for next week may be classed as "changeable" rather than "unsettled". 

Offline picturesareme  
#869 Posted : 02 November 2019 18:50:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post

 

 

If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 

Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

Offline tallyho_83  
#870 Posted : 03 November 2019 02:02:04(UTC)
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Just wanted to share this from weather is cool - the forecast for strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa:

Seems interesting!? Could all change of course but for now at least - all models showing a weakened zonal flow into December and some even going into reverse!?

If only....?

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Edited by user 03 November 2019 02:16:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Offline Caz  
#871 Posted : 03 November 2019 04:46:29(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme Go to Quoted Post

 

Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 

Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

Yet here in the East Midlands, it’s been flat calm with not a bit of breeze!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Offline DEW  
#872 Posted : 03 November 2019 07:35:58(UTC)
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GFS has a different take on a blocking high this morning, sbecoming prminent over Scandi from the 7th but only for a week, and then retreating into Russia where it eventually reaches 1050mb. Both temp and precip below normal over Scandi for the coming week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 though the Baltic could get a lot of snow later on.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, the blocking directs a series of not very deep depressions across the UK from NW to SE (though with the caveat that yesterday's storm was forecast not very deep at one stage) and eventually (from 13th) a bit deeper but stalling them off the W of Ireland.

ECM has a similar procession of depressions but without the benefit of a Scandi high until ca 12th when it emerges with a stong ridge to a mid-Atlantic high. ECM and GFS - both today's 0z - are dramatically different for the 13th

GEFS continues generally unsettled and on the cold side, though several runs are back to average temps or above later on.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Online Bertwhistle  
#873 Posted : 03 November 2019 08:16:19(UTC)
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Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Offline scillydave  
#874 Posted : 03 November 2019 09:22:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

I'll take that!

It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen snow here in  November, in fact it's snowed here in each of the last 5 Novembers however I'd be very surprised to get anything like that amount if any snow at all.

The tops of the Malverns might well see a flake or two.

 

Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter.
Offline ballamar  
#875 Posted : 03 November 2019 09:50:04(UTC)
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Would be great if this pattern kept repeating would definitely be a case of it could snow anywhere especially Dec and jan.
Offline AJ*  
#876 Posted : 03 November 2019 10:49:06(UTC)
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One thing that I noticed on this morning's GEFS is that there is less scatter than usual among the members for the whole forecast period covered (and a great deal less than on some GEFS predictions).

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

40m (131ft) asl

Online Brian Gaze  
#877 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:01:52(UTC)
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Online Russwirral  
#878 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:11:11(UTC)
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You dont get many runs looking like that in November - let alone on the 3rd day of it.

Offline doctormog  
#879 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:13:25(UTC)
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It looks interesting for sure and if it were to become a gradual transition into winter it would be very interesting. At this stage it raises half an eyebrow out of curiosity. The persistence of blocking across various areas to the north is beginning to get my attention but it could as we all know disappear without anything notable coming to fruition.
Offline tallyho_83  
#880 Posted : 03 November 2019 11:32:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
It looks interesting for sure and if it were to become a gradual transition into winter it would be very interesting. At this stage it raises half an eyebrow out of curiosity. The persistence of blocking across various areas to the north is beginning to get my attention but it could as we all know disappear without anything notable coming to fruition.

Yes it is interesting to get the blocking in these places so early on!? Hope this can be a continuing trend!?

Both GFS OP and Control has us in a northerly on 14th Nov - but this has to be an outliar!? Many places not getting above freezing all day!? Typical as i shall be heading off to Budapest for birthday - where at the mom it looks balmy with more chance of getting a white birthday here ha!?

All JFF as it's one model and one run but something to keep an eye on?

 

Control: the Uppers with -10 @ 850hpa knocking on northern Scotland:

 

GFS OP

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 03 November 2019 11:34:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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