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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 2,369 Location: Essex
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Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 3,267  Location: Wirral
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As others have said - the last few runs of GFS looks like the Atlantic tries to get going (if not already) but reverts back to a blocked outlook, with an active atlantic being forced south to the med. This is very encouraging, and something ive not seen for years - such resilience for blocking to rise from the ashes over and over. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar  Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play. Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum). |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 61,355
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Originally Posted by: idj20  A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site. I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,359 Location: costa solent
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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum  Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play. Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum). Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze  I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years. Particularly snow, but not only snow. Any form of extreme and unusual weather for these islands, which includes (not exclusively) snow, more snow, heavy snow, blizzards and also ice days, heavy frosts, freezing fog, oh and did I mention snow? Then there are strong gales, heatwaves, torrential rain, floods, hail, tornadoes (not many of them) and err snow (did I mention that?). P.S. ECM 12Z looks interesting if you want to see some early signs of winter. Edited by user 31 October 2019 19:31:48(UTC)
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New world order coming. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 2,369 Location: Essex
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Hints of high pressure building over Scandi again nothing too cold but nice to see the patterns there
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 17,807  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Tomorrow/Saturday's depression now forecast to be deeper and more violent (not too strong a word given the wind warnings) than it was a week ago. Otherwise no surprises - all the developments have been telegraphed for some time. LP over the UK for next week with a brief interlude on Wed, then drying up and HP for next week, moving in for the next week from the SW eventually linking up with Scandinavia. The LP on its southern edge now looks further off than yesterday, over the Med rather than over France, so a good chance of a dry second week for all even if the GEFS op run has occasional rainfall spikes (most GEFS runs don't) GEFS continues cold for the foreseeable and with less scatter than yesterday; Inverness has an impressive array of snow row figures. Jet stream forecast consistent with all this, running south of the UK for the coming week, then breaking up into meanders. |
"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze" |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,447 Location: Tonbridge, Kent
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Originally Posted by: picturesareme  Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂 I must have missed the news of those. Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year? And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines). |
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO. 40m (131ft) asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Originally Posted by: AJ*  I must have missed the news of those. Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year? And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines). This was one of them: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/sulfur-spewing-russian-volcano-turning-sunsets-purple SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 27/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 11,156 Location: Glossop
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I doubt this put enough sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere to cause significant cooling and hence a stronger stratospheric vortex. This usually needs strong tropical eruptions
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,139  Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: AJ*  I must have missed the news of those. Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year? And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines). Indeed, noticed how the EURO4 is being quite bullish about wind strength for tomorrow while GFS is being more reserved, usually it's the other way around with the models when it comes to predicting mean winds in the close range forecast. A true test for the models with Oct '87 still fresh to mind but hopefully it won't be a repeat of that. And the recent volcanic eruptions are just mere bottom burps compared to Mount St Helens in 1981. Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:16:50(UTC)
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 61,355
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/08/2010(UTC) Posts: 7,896 Location: Leeds W Yorks
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Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex? Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2019(UTC) Posts: 345
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,619  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Originally Posted by: DPower  Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs). It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study. Edited by user 01 November 2019 14:01:17(UTC)
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New world order coming. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 61,355
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On the other hand a cold and cyclonic November is often considered as a tick next to the cold winter box. Of course we don't know how November will play out and Mr PSW could come back in the blink of an eyelid. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,451  Location: Folkestone
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November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn. A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling. 
I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks. A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO.  Edited by user 01 November 2019 16:11:14(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 1,021   Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn. A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling. 
I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks. A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO.  2 x 1 on the snow row, for Londond in November! Not that I think for one second that's obviously going to happen but still. don't believe I have seen that before, this early. But then I've been told my memory isn't what it used to be  |
119.377 m /391.658 feet asl NW Kent
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 6,519 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn. A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling. 
I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks. A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO.  Do I sense a small amount of reverse psychology in this post. In all seriousness though, I remember how fed up you were with the 2018/19 offerings. |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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