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Offline doctormog  
#821 Posted : 28 October 2019 19:34:05(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 71,129

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.

That and in terms of winter potential it is a bit far away, early and tenuous. Worth watching though out of casual interest,

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#822 Posted : 28 October 2019 19:45:22(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

Hmm, Page 42 date Oct. 28th 2019.

The years that end with 08,09 seem to favour our Normal Autumn Weather Sequences.

Will this Locked in Low Pressure pattern happen as forecasted over the UK, I think it is good to check the forecast models at the T72 to T192 range.

What matters is how long it rains- how heavy and how large an area get’s hmm.  Breaks in these wet and windy spells are a feature we know a lot- dry spells with lighter winds.  They are good.

Under the 72-96 hr time frame it is a good idea to see where we are position in the Jetsream and if it settles down we can see some interest that points us at dry and nice weather.  If it gets windy and wet it will be or not and be changed as we get closer to those days- no point saying we are confident in cold and dry condictions returning to the UK.

Page 42.  Nice model output today but it does not appear to show much in the way of cold and wintry weather.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline DEW  
#823 Posted : 29 October 2019 06:52:58(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th.

The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

Little change to this since yesterday, so I've cheated and done a quote. But

  • next week's unsettled spell likely to start sun 3rd rather than Mon 4th
  • end of GFS run develops Scandi high around the 12th with ridge to northern areas and a drier spell, matched by next week's powerful jet stream breaking up and meandering
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline briggsy6  
#824 Posted : 29 October 2019 10:39:54(UTC)
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I'm hoping to attend a bonfire night celebration on Saturday eve. What is the weather likely to be: wet or dry? 

Location: Uxbridge
Offline nsrobins  
#825 Posted : 29 October 2019 11:37:59(UTC)
nsrobins

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Location: South Hampshire

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

I'm hoping to attend a bonfire night celebration on Saturday eve. What is the weather likely to be: wet or dry? 

More likely to be wet and windy than calm and dry I’m afraid.

Neil

Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline AJ*  
#826 Posted : 29 October 2019 16:03:57(UTC)
AJ*

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Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Looking at the GEFS, the first 10 days of November look pretty wet and unsettled.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Online idj20  
#827 Posted : 29 October 2019 16:27:35(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: AJ* Go to Quoted Post

Looking at the GEFS, the first 10 days of November look pretty wet and unsettled.



Indeed with a number of runner lows rattling through the UK in from the Atlantic.

November 2010 was similar with that kind of thing . . . and we all know what happened next. 

Offline JACKO4EVER  
#828 Posted : 29 October 2019 17:13:59(UTC)
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The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir

Near the Leics/ Notts Border

495 Feet Above Sea Level

Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"

Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"

December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"

2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"

The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery

Offline ballamar  
#829 Posted : 29 October 2019 17:23:15(UTC)
ballamar

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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

if the block is in the wrong place the fronts could stall over UK - first battle of the season!

Offline tallyho_83  
#830 Posted : 29 October 2019 18:59:12(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

 

Yes - mild wet and windy weather continuing sadly!! :/ - so it seems!?

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline fairweather  
#831 Posted : 29 October 2019 20:55:34(UTC)
fairweather

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Location: Essex

I hate November. The first dark month and not much too look forward to. The weather is rarely that interesting. December has Christmas and the chance of serious cold and thereafter as well as potential cold, the days get longer with time.

Offline beanoir  
#832 Posted : 30 October 2019 06:53:37(UTC)
beanoir

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.

lack of charts and visuals! 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Offline DEW  
#833 Posted : 30 October 2019 06:58:22(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Friday's depression looks more significant than forecast earlier, then it's LP for the week following. FAX chart for Sunday different to other models with LP stretched out between two centres E-W, other models have it elongated N-S. In the week after that (from 10th) GFS goes for Scandi HP with ridge to Scotland and LP from France nibbling at the south, though GEFS has more widespread rainfall than I'd expect from that set up.

GEFS temps after brief burst of mild air to start the weekend, generally at or a little below average. Inverness snow rows back in double digits by end of run, other northerly UK stations not more than 2 or 3.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online Saint Snow  
#834 Posted : 30 October 2019 11:06:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: beanoir Go to Quoted Post

 

lack of charts and visuals! 

 

 

I know some would take it to the extreme, but IMO we've gone too far the other way

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online Heavy Weather 2013  
#835 Posted : 30 October 2019 17:47:54(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentral.../pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline doctormog  
#836 Posted : 30 October 2019 18:51:45(UTC)
doctormog

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I’m not sure about anything wintry but it does look like a persistently cool outlook at the moment with a more unsettled interlude at the weekend. There also seems to be more general non-specific hints at blocking in various places to our north or northeast.
Offline ballamar  
#837 Posted : 30 October 2019 19:04:58(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Almost a clean split PV on ECM great if it could set up a cross polar flow. But good signs even if gone next few runs
Online idj20  
#838 Posted : 30 October 2019 22:23:15(UTC)
idj20

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Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Offline LeedsLad123  
#839 Posted : 30 October 2019 22:52:36(UTC)
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Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Lack of desired weather will be partly to blame. Think we’re all a bit sick of unsettled weather!

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Online Caz  
#840 Posted : 31 October 2019 05:15:05(UTC)
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   

Edited by user 31 October 2019 05:17:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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