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Offline briggsy6  
#821 Posted : 29 October 2019 10:39:54(UTC)
briggsy6

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Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 882

I'm hoping to attend a bonfire night celebration on Saturday eve. What is the weather likely to be: wet or dry? 

Location: Uxbridge
Offline nsrobins  
#822 Posted : 29 October 2019 11:37:59(UTC)
nsrobins

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Location: South Hampshire

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 Go to Quoted Post

I'm hoping to attend a bonfire night celebration on Saturday eve. What is the weather likely to be: wet or dry? 

More likely to be wet and windy than calm and dry I’m afraid.

Neil

Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline AJ*  
#823 Posted : 29 October 2019 16:03:57(UTC)
AJ*

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Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Looking at the GEFS, the first 10 days of November look pretty wet and unsettled.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

40m (131ft) asl

Offline idj20  
#824 Posted : 29 October 2019 16:27:35(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: AJ* Go to Quoted Post

Looking at the GEFS, the first 10 days of November look pretty wet and unsettled.



Indeed with a number of runner lows rattling through the UK in from the Atlantic.

November 2010 was similar with that kind of thing . . . and we all know what happened next. 

JACKO4EVER  
#825 Posted : 29 October 2019 17:13:59(UTC)
Guest

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The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?
Offline ballamar  
#826 Posted : 29 October 2019 17:23:15(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

if the block is in the wrong place the fronts could stall over UK - first battle of the season!

Offline tallyho_83  
#827 Posted : 29 October 2019 18:59:12(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

 

Yes - mild wet and windy weather continuing sadly!! :/ - so it seems!?

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Offline fairweather  
#828 Posted : 29 October 2019 20:55:34(UTC)
fairweather

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Posts: 6,682
Location: S.Essex

I hate November. The first dark month and not much too look forward to. The weather is rarely that interesting. December has Christmas and the chance of serious cold and thereafter as well as potential cold, the days get longer with time.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Offline beanoir  
#829 Posted : 30 October 2019 06:53:37(UTC)
beanoir

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.

lack of charts and visuals! 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Online DEW  
#830 Posted : 30 October 2019 06:58:22(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Friday's depression looks more significant than forecast earlier, then it's LP for the week following. FAX chart for Sunday different to other models with LP stretched out between two centres E-W, other models have it elongated N-S. In the week after that (from 10th) GFS goes for Scandi HP with ridge to Scotland and LP from France nibbling at the south, though GEFS has more widespread rainfall than I'd expect from that set up.

GEFS temps after brief burst of mild air to start the weekend, generally at or a little below average. Inverness snow rows back in double digits by end of run, other northerly UK stations not more than 2 or 3.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline Saint Snow  
#831 Posted : 30 October 2019 11:06:24(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: beanoir Go to Quoted Post

 

lack of charts and visuals! 

 

 

I know some would take it to the extreme, but IMO we've gone too far the other way

“Never mind life expectancy, never mind cancer outcomes - look at wage growth” Bozo Johnson

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#832 Posted : 30 October 2019 17:47:54(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 5,464
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentral.../pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Online doctormog  
#833 Posted : 30 October 2019 18:51:45(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 73,994

I’m not sure about anything wintry but it does look like a persistently cool outlook at the moment with a more unsettled interlude at the weekend. There also seems to be more general non-specific hints at blocking in various places to our north or northeast.
Offline ballamar  
#834 Posted : 30 October 2019 19:04:58(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

Almost a clean split PV on ECM great if it could set up a cross polar flow. But good signs even if gone next few runs
Offline idj20  
#835 Posted : 30 October 2019 22:23:15(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Offline LeedsLad123  
#836 Posted : 30 October 2019 22:52:36(UTC)
LeedsLad123

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Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Lack of desired weather will be partly to blame. Think we’re all a bit sick of unsettled weather!

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Caz  
#837 Posted : 31 October 2019 05:15:05(UTC)
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   

Edited by user 31 October 2019 05:17:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Surrey John  
#838 Posted : 31 October 2019 06:48:07(UTC)
Surrey John

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Location: West Wiltshire

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post
Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

 

Those ensembles are very tight for next 7 days

Then more of a spread, but suggesting second week of November is going to be similar, with a few dawns where temperatures will see air frosts

 

 

Corsham, Wiltshire

95m ASL

Online DEW  
#839 Posted : 31 October 2019 07:31:19(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

LP for the coming week with centres mostly sited in England; perhaps a brief dry window midweek. After that, the ridging from a Scandi high becomes established (as previously noted) and slack LP over France. Quite a lot of NE winds.

No very great totals for rainfall in GFS, but generally wet this coming week, and drier next week (but not as much rain in the S as I'd expect from pressure charts) Temps going down to somewhat below average again for the coming week, and staying there for the majority of runs the week after though there's a lot of scatter developing by then - confidence low.

I love these grey skies ... God cannot see what you are doing (The poet Stephen Mallarme on a visit to London)
Offline AJ*  
#840 Posted : 31 October 2019 08:44:50(UTC)
AJ*

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Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,417
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   

Me too.  (It would be useful if this forum had the functionality to just upvote or recommend posts, but I realise that we have to use the software that is available and provided.)

 

The GEFS output for London is still showing wet weather until the 10th Nov, but at least there is a break for a day shown on the 6th.  Still, I shouldn't complain, as I know that it is good for the garden and our water supplies.  (And we do need it here.)

 

 

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

40m (131ft) asl

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