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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,965  Location: Forest Gate London
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The 00z UKMO has us in High Pressure much more - Sunday to Thursday next week from this Sunday W/E. GFS and ECMWF- are struggling to bring the Low Pressure breakdown - by either Thursday or much more likely by Friday next Week - they expect Wind and rain, areas of dry and bright breaks with Low Pressure wind and rain that could cover the UK N NW Europe and the North Atlantic for at least 5 days. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,329
Location: Central Southern England
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06z GFS picks up a persistent pattern from 1-11Nov of a tendency for LP to our S and HP over the NE. The way it's modelled, looks as if the pattern is hard to break. Could be interesting. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,412
Location: Essex
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Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,214 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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This morning's GFS ahows the HP for this week not standing up to a push from the Atlantic, one depression moving across around 1 Nov, then a really disturbed (cool and wet) week from the 4th. HP over Scandi not really evident until then end of the run so reserve judgement on that. GEFS ens agree with this and to an unusual extent with each other, though not as cold as synoptics suggest. GFS puts the cold and wet firmly across S Britain, ECM (from yesterday, and at the end of its run) further north. |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 71,123
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 817
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Location: Uxbridge |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 36,658 Location: Purley, Surrey
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Horrendous. I thought we were passed the wettest period. Parallels with the 2013/4 winter |
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,308
Location: Tonbridge, Kent
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Originally Posted by: ballamar  Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical Hear hear! It's roller-coaster time, chaps. And I'd like to express my thanks to DEW for keeping this thread ticking over with intelligent and concise summaries of the outlook for the past few weeks. My model watching is limited to the MetO Fax Charts and a glance at the GEFS, but it's reassuring that my tentative ideas about what is being shown are backed up by someone more knowledgeable than myself. The GEFS appears to be in agreement up to the 2nd Nov, after which the prospects are much less clear. |
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,476
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ECM t+ 10 days showing the potential for something wintry to develop. Could easily be very wet too. GFS / GEFS generally looks pretty unsettled to me with further flooding likely. A few of the runs appear to have the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive later on, but at this stage there is a good deal of interest. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 35,874 Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Could this be coming into play this winter (as it appeared to in 2010-11)? Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Oct 2019
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 223 days (74%) |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,902
Location: Manchester
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. “Interesting.” |
Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,345 Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. “Interesting.” dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring. I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. |
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir Near the Leics/ Notts Border 495 Feet Above Sea Level
Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer" Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special" December 2015- "Floodfest Horror" 2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"
The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,476
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. Yes I think that is the weather headline during the second half of the week. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,902
Location: Manchester
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring. I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. Yes blocky charts do tend to appear more frequently at this time of year. I agree the main concern currently is the amount of rain that looks likely to fall. |
Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 4,093
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door. |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,597
Location: Canvey Island, Essex
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.
Same here personally this time of year signals the start of when I take a little more notice of the charts. |
Canvey Island, Essex |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,214 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th. The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,412
Location: Essex
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ECM interesting run, 10 days time could be a little wintry for some
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,345 Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border
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I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO |
Jason in The Vale of Belvoir Near the Leics/ Notts Border 495 Feet Above Sea Level
Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer" Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special" December 2015- "Floodfest Horror" 2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"
The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 27,742 Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO 1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical. 2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.
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