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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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This morning's GFS ahows the HP for this week not standing up to a push from the Atlantic, one depression moving across around 1 Nov, then a really disturbed (cool and wet) week from the 4th. HP over Scandi not really evident until then end of the run so reserve judgement on that. GEFS ens agree with this and to an unusual extent with each other, though not as cold as synoptics suggest. GFS puts the cold and wet firmly across S Britain, ECM (from yesterday, and at the end of its run) further north. |
His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 73,524
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 866
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Location: Uxbridge |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 41,667 Location: Purley, Surrey
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Horrendous. I thought we were passed the wettest period. Parallels with the 2013/4 winter |
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,417
Location: Tonbridge, Kent
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Originally Posted by: ballamar  Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical Hear hear! It's roller-coaster time, chaps. And I'd like to express my thanks to DEW for keeping this thread ticking over with intelligent and concise summaries of the outlook for the past few weeks. My model watching is limited to the MetO Fax Charts and a glance at the GEFS, but it's reassuring that my tentative ideas about what is being shown are backed up by someone more knowledgeable than myself. The GEFS appears to be in agreement up to the 2nd Nov, after which the prospects are much less clear. |
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO. 40m (131ft) asl |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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ECM t+ 10 days showing the potential for something wintry to develop. Could easily be very wet too. GFS / GEFS generally looks pretty unsettled to me with further flooding likely. A few of the runs appear to have the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive later on, but at this stage there is a good deal of interest. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 36,539 Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Could this be coming into play this winter (as it appeared to in 2010-11)? Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Oct 2019
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 223 days (74%) |
New world order coming. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,849
Location: Manchester
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. “Interesting.” |
Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. “Interesting.” dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring. I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,821
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. Yes I think that is the weather headline during the second half of the week. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,849
Location: Manchester
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring. I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. Yes blocky charts do tend to appear more frequently at this time of year. I agree the main concern currently is the amount of rain that looks likely to fall. |
Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 5,119
Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door. |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.
Same here personally this time of year signals the start of when I take a little more notice of the charts.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th. The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 |
His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,847
Location: Essex
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ECM interesting run, 10 days time could be a little wintry for some
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 28,427 Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO 1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical. 2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 73,524
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Originally Posted by: idj20
1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.
That and in terms of winter potential it is a bit far away, early and tenuous. Worth watching though out of casual interest, |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,965 Location: Forest Gate London
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Hmm, Page 42 date Oct. 28th 2019. The years that end with 08,09 seem to favour our Normal Autumn Weather Sequences. Will this Locked in Low Pressure pattern happen as forecasted over the UK, I think it is good to check the forecast models at the T72 to T192 range. What matters is how long it rains- how heavy and how large an area get’s hmm. Breaks in these wet and windy spells are a feature we know a lot- dry spells with lighter winds. They are good. Under the 72-96 hr time frame it is a good idea to see where we are position in the Jetsream and if it settles down we can see some interest that points us at dry and nice weather. If it gets windy and wet it will be or not and be changed as we get closer to those days- no point saying we are confident in cold and dry condictions returning to the UK. Page 42. Nice model output today but it does not appear to show much in the way of cold and wintry weather. |
We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather. Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness. Laiq B. Home: East London Location around 61m ASL.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,691 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: DEW After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th. The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Little change to this since yesterday, so I've cheated and done a quote. But - next week's unsettled spell likely to start sun 3rd rather than Mon 4th
- end of GFS run develops Scandi high around the 12th with ridge to northern areas and a drier spell, matched by next week's powerful jet stream breaking up and meandering
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His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island')) |
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