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Online idj20  
#781 Posted : 23 October 2019 19:38:00(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+



And yet  only 7 mm by the end of the weekend forecast for Kent, and that's the top end of predictions.

The Kent Rain Deflector still has some life in it.  

Online fairweather  
#782 Posted : 23 October 2019 23:28:17(UTC)
fairweather

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From the beginning of November there appears to be a lot of cold weather moving in to Eastern and Northern Europe, hardly surprising for the start of November but was seriously lacking last year.

Offline CreweCold  
#783 Posted : 24 October 2019 00:28:17(UTC)
CreweCold

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Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+

The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 

There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Offline DEW  
#784 Posted : 24 October 2019 06:14:48(UTC)
DEW

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This weekend has a well-forecasted pulse of warm air from the south tangling with cold air over Scotland - latest GEFS suggest the heaviest rain will be N Wales & NW England rather than BBC suggesting S Wales/Midlands last night. Some wet snow over Pennines?

Once that's out of the way, HP for most of next week with the possibility of LP encroaching from the west. GEFS op and control runs say generally dry and on the cold side, though it's possible to cherry-pick exceptions. Presumably cold air following this weekend's weather gets established. Inverness has an impressive collection of snow row figures, though very little actual precipitation - just flurries?

GFS has abandoned its end-of-run northerly blast which was showing yesterday and replaced it with a less dramatic one a few days earlier. I'll believe that when I see it in actuality.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online Brian Gaze  
#785 Posted : 24 October 2019 08:46:17(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline noodle doodle  
#786 Posted : 24 October 2019 08:59:19(UTC)
noodle doodle

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I know automatic IMBY weather forecasts are a bit dubious, but I'd like to bank this one for Penrith that predicts an accumulation of 40cm of snow :-)

 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#787 Posted : 24 October 2019 11:42:35(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Well - very cold ensembles for Aberdeen!??

Averaging around -5c @ 850hpa for the next week - maybe a tick up to -2c @ 850hpa in day days time but still well below the seasonal average and of course this is a long way off.

I am keen to know what the CET is for October!? Could be the first colder than average month since..!??

March 2018? - and when did we last have a colder than average October?

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Edited by user 24 October 2019 11:45:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline Surrey John  
#788 Posted : 24 October 2019 12:15:42(UTC)
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The Met office charts have fronts all over the place,

especially the T+24   (0.00 hrs 25th)

Following the sequence through the 36 hour and 48 hour suggests Central and Northern England is going to be very wet, it will also be windy

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

there are also yellow warnings for rain at the weekend

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-10-26

 

 

 

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

Online idj20  
#789 Posted : 24 October 2019 14:30:35(UTC)
idj20

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ECM still going for a developing low atop the UK for this time next week while GFS maintain the settled outlook. 

It's usually GFS that like its lows!

Offline JACKO4EVER  
#790 Posted : 24 October 2019 16:45:15(UTC)
JACKO4EVER

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Jason in The Vale of Belvoir

Near the Leics/ Notts Border

495 Feet Above Sea Level

Summer 2012- "The Crapfest Summer"

Winter 2013/14- "The 35 Minute Snowfall Special"

December 2015- "Floodfest Horror"

2015-16 "The Year Without A Winter"

The Death of The Mid-Winter Easterly is a Mystery

Online Brian Gaze  
#791 Posted : 24 October 2019 17:04:12(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Online Brian Gaze  
#792 Posted : 24 October 2019 17:04:26(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Go to Quoted Post
 

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Yes I think it was. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Russwirral  
#793 Posted : 24 October 2019 18:18:59(UTC)
Russwirral

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Originally Posted by: CreweCold Go to Quoted Post

 

The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 

There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.

 

Agreed.

 

I said earlier on the oct precip watch board that in the last 30 days ive had 140mm of rain. Potentially by the weekend i might see 200mm of rain over a 30 day period.

 

Thats a good explaination of why our ground is so swollen...

Offline DEW  
#794 Posted : 25 October 2019 06:32:13(UTC)
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GFS and associated GEFS move to a northerly scenario next week, HP to the west of and often close to the UK, temps below average as you might expect and mainly dry, though some GEFS runs have rainfall from (probably) the HP regressing a bit and allowing LP to come down the North Sea.

But ...

BBC last night was talking of a butterfly effect. If the warm air to the SW strays only a LITTLE bit further north, then it interact interacts with the jet stream and spins uo a new depression to move NW across N Britain. ECM 0z has picked up on this idea.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline ballamar  
#795 Posted : 25 October 2019 11:08:03(UTC)
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GFS throwing out some interesting synoptics at the later stages - lots of blocking around in the right places if you want cold
Offline ballamar  
#796 Posted : 25 October 2019 19:16:44(UTC)
ballamar

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ECM looks Scandinavia high like, good to see early on
Offline DEW  
#797 Posted : 26 October 2019 05:13:18(UTC)
DEW

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GFS 0z has HP over UK slowly subsiding south over next week, to be replaced by cold NW-fed depression, looking quite vicious around Monday 4th; ECM 12z (Fri) and BBC collapse the HP earlier with depression moving in from the SW mid week. ECM looks similar to the GFS by the 4th but with the depression then standing off to the west rather than being over the UK.

GEFS runs generally dry util around 2nd Nov then rain with biggest totals in the south. Cold, too, though Op and control have a brief bit of warmth around the 1st-4th, the majority of runs (and the mean) keep it cold.

Don't see any sign of a Scandi high

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline roadrunnerajn  
#798 Posted : 26 October 2019 07:39:52(UTC)
roadrunnerajn

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The 00z GFS looks like the Russian snow cover will thaw away whilst we flood!!!
Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Online Brian Gaze  
#799 Posted : 26 October 2019 10:49:39(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Russwirral  
#800 Posted : 26 October 2019 10:58:59(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

 

We really could do with a dry period.

 

Ground has had such a soaking this year. Golf has been a real struggle this year at times with lots of courses being closed.

 

Today the perfect example

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