This weekend has a well-forecasted pulse of warm air from the south tangling with cold air over Scotland - latest GEFS suggest the heaviest rain will be N Wales & NW England rather than BBC suggesting S Wales/Midlands last night. Some wet snow over Pennines?

Once that's out of the way, HP for most of next week with the possibility of LP encroaching from the west. GEFS op and control runs say generally dry and on the cold side, though it's possible to cherry-pick exceptions. Presumably cold air following this weekend's weather gets established. Inverness has an impressive collection of snow row figures, though very little actual precipitation - just flurries?

GFS has abandoned its end-of-run northerly blast which was showing yesterday and replaced it with a less dramatic one a few days earlier. I'll believe that when I see it in actuality.

The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

I know automatic IMBY weather forecasts are a bit dubious, but I'd like to bank this one for Penrith that predicts an accumulation of 40cm of snow :-)

Well - very cold ensembles for Aberdeen!??

Averaging around -5c @ 850hpa for the next week - maybe a tick up to -2c @ 850hpa in day days time but still well below the seasonal average and of course this is a long way off.

I am keen to know what the CET is for October!? Could be the first colder than average month since..!??

March 2018? - and when did we last have a colder than average October?

The Met office charts have fronts all over the place,

especially the T+24   (0.00 hrs 25th)

Following the sequence through the 36 hour and 48 hour suggests Central and Northern England is going to be very wet, it will also be windy

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

there are also yellow warnings for rain at the weekend

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-10-26

ECM still going for a developing low atop the UK for this time next week while GFS maintain the settled outlook. 

It's usually GFS that like its lows!

The QBO pattern is being compared with 2013/14. Of course it is only one of many factors, but if the winter follows a similar path flooding would be a major problem I think.  

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

GFS 12z has an area of low pressure dive bombing from the north next week. It brings a wintry mix of precipitation. Probably won't happen but something else to keep an eye on https://t.co/U7KMfgZWct pic.twitter.com/3HM8VVpWoD

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) October 24, 2019

 

very worrying given the sopping wet state of the ground at present. Wasn’t that the winter where we had those ferocious Atlantic storms washing coastal areas and communities away ? 

Yes I think it was. 

 

The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 

There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.

Agreed.

I said earlier on the oct precip watch board that in the last 30 days ive had 140mm of rain. Potentially by the weekend i might see 200mm of rain over a 30 day period.

Thats a good explaination of why our ground is so swollen...

GFS and associated GEFS move to a northerly scenario next week, HP to the west of and often close to the UK, temps below average as you might expect and mainly dry, though some GEFS runs have rainfall from (probably) the HP regressing a bit and allowing LP to come down the North Sea.

But ...

BBC last night was talking of a butterfly effect. If the warm air to the SW strays only a LITTLE bit further north, then it interact interacts with the jet stream and spins uo a new depression to move NW across N Britain. ECM 0z has picked up on this idea.

GFS 0z has HP over UK slowly subsiding south over next week, to be replaced by cold NW-fed depression, looking quite vicious around Monday 4th; ECM 12z (Fri) and BBC collapse the HP earlier with depression moving in from the SW mid week. ECM looks similar to the GFS by the 4th but with the depression then standing off to the west rather than being over the UK.

GEFS runs generally dry util around 2nd Nov then rain with biggest totals in the south. Cold, too, though Op and control have a brief bit of warmth around the 1st-4th, the majority of runs (and the mean) keep it cold.

Don't see any sign of a Scandi high

Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

Significant shift towards a more unsettled outlook with the Atlantic eventually punching a long way east. Could quickly revert back of course. Perhaps.

We really could do with a dry period.

Ground has had such a soaking this year. Golf has been a real struggle this year at times with lots of courses being closed.

Today the perfect example

The 00z UKMO has us in High Pressure much more - Sunday to Thursday next week from this Sunday W/E.

GFS and ECMWF- are struggling to bring the Low Pressure breakdown - by either Thursday or much more likely by Friday next Week - they expect Wind and rain, areas of dry and bright breaks with Low Pressure wind and rain that could cover the UK N NW Europe and the North Atlantic for at least 5 days.

06z GFS picks up a persistent pattern from 1-11Nov of a tendency for LP to our S and HP over the NE.

The way it's modelled, looks as if the pattern is hard to break. Could be interesting.