Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 

Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

The start of Boris's "Winter of Discontent"

Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time.

And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern.

Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching

A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before.

Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.

Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc

Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM:

Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!?

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 21 October 2019 13:12:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Im hoping it slips further south again. Im meant to be playing golf friday at 11am.

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run

Originally Posted by: beanoir

Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.

Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 

Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.

Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.

Is GFS just acting bizarrely  though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio.