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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,210 Location: Manchester
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Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 38,160  Location: Purley, Surrey
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs  The start of Boris's "Winter of Discontent" |
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 23/12/2011(UTC) Posts: 154 Location: Bucklebury, Berkshire 135m ASL
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Interesting GEFS tonight down here for Reading with the OP 850hPa and 2m pretty much bang on the mean at ~5c above LTA throughout. The MSLP though is a totally different story with the OP 10-20mB below the mean, and opposing the Control till the end of the run. Pretty dry throughout.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,752  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time. And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern. Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 2,972 Location: Wirral
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Friday looks very interesting... could see snow to quite low levels where the rain is heavy enough. A big pool of cold air to our northwest being tapped into |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 834
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A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before. |
Location: Uxbridge |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 2,972 Location: Wirral
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Friday looking more interesting for disruptive snowfall for some areas of northern england. The risk could extend more south as the week goes on One to watch |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,752  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there. |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 1,679 Location: Essex
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ECM looks like it could be a chilly Halloween. GFS potential split vortex with maybe an early cold shot if the high can build in the right spot. Obviously nothing too cold but more interesting November coming up than mild 13/14 degree days with double figures at night
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 2,972 Location: Wirral
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Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days. Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC) Posts: 10,648 Location: Devon
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Originally Posted by: Russwirral  Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days. Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month Sat 27th Oct Last year it tried to sleet before the rain diminished and went back to light drizzle. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC) Posts: 10,648 Location: Devon
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Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM: Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!? SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES Edited by user 21 October 2019 13:12:22(UTC)
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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC) Posts: 5,567 Location: costa solent
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Originally Posted by: DEW  Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there. Some sleet for the Cheviots Friday night Saturday - Northumberland.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 2,972 Location: Wirral
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Upgrade for snow for north midlands for friday Im hoping it slips further south again. Im meant to be playing golf friday at 11am. |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 53,299
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Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 2,972 Location: Wirral
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Friday continues to model the feature further south Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 290
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Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style. Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... |
Langford, Bedfordshire |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/08/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,221
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Originally Posted by: beanoir  Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style. Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first. Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 4,687 Location: Muswell Hill, North London
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25 October looks like a key day. Anything can happen after that day, but the switch in the Ensembles overnight with more cool runs suggest something is afoot. |
Mark Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,280  Location: Leeds
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze  Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again. 
Is GFS just acting bizarrely though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio. |
Tim NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA) 187m asl
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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