GWs latest projection pleases me; won't mind a .03 error this month.

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GWs latest projection pleases me; won't mind a .03 error this month.

Neither would I. I'm now becoming cautiously optimistic about October.

 

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Met Office Hadley         11.4c.      Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                      10.94c     Anomaly      0.47c

Netweather                   11.66c     Anomaly      1.27c

Peasedown St John     11.9c     Anomaly      -0.1c                

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although I see my 10.8c guess is in good company. 

 

The absolute best company 

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The absolute best company 

 Exactly!  I’m only .05c below GW, Col and Redmoons!  

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Met Office Hadley        11.3c.      Anomaly         0.0c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                     10.88c      Anomaly        0.37c

Netweather                  11.54c      Anomaly        1.15c

Peasedown St John       11.4c       Anomaly        -0.6c.

           

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Produced rough final CET estimates for the GFS & ECM 00z runs, and they were extremely close; both in the mid-10s.

ECM is very mild at the weekend, whereas GFS is merely mild, which offsets a much chillier following few days in the ECM run.

As far as GFS goes, the loss of a mild final few days compared to GW's latest update counts for around a third of a degree Celsius.

The situation looks very precarious with the ridge and trough placement, so I'm not viewing any of this with  much confidence to be honest. I think anywhere from low 10s to just about into the 11s can still be considered a plausible final CET!

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Hmm!  It’s falling a little too quickly at the moment for my liking!  I’m not convinced that a couple of milder days, that may or may not materialise, will be enough to offset the colder ones, that may or may not materialise.

It’s still anyone’s guess then!   

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Hmm!  It’s falling a little too quickly at the moment for my liking!  I’m not convinced that a couple of milder days, that may or may not materialise, will be enough to offset the colder ones, that may or may not materialise.

It’s still anyone’s guess then!   

As if determined to make me look a fool, the GFS 12z has produced the chilly next week of the ECM 00z without the very mild weekend, resulting in a rough final CET estimate in the high 9s; outside the range I gave earlier .

Starting to wonder if I was a bit naive there; when winds fall light with clear skies, GFS tends not to handle the extent to which temps drop at night very well - actual minimums can be 1-3*C lower widely.

Despite the models aligning more closely on the 'chilly high' outcome this evening, it's not a done deal just yet - let's give it a couple more days before panicking (or cheering... ).

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As if determined to make me look a fool, the GFS 12z has produced the chilly next week of the ECM 00z without the very mild weekend, resulting in a rough final CET estimate in the high 9s; outside the range I gave earlier .

Starting to wonder if I was a bit naive there; when winds fall light with clear skies, GFS tends not to handle the extent to which temps drop at night very well - actual minimums can be 1-3*C lower widely.

Despite the models aligning more closely on the 'chilly high' outcome this evening, it's not a done deal just yet - let's give it a couple more days before panicking (or cheering... ).

Sounds like somethnig else that may or may not be a 'done deal' by October 31st 🙂 But at least we know that the October CET will be finalised by that date, though no doubt some people might wish for an extension into November!

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Met Office Hadley       11.2c.    Anomaly     0.0c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                    10.80c    Anomaly    0.29c

Netweather                 11.49c    Anomaly    1.1c

Peasedown St John     11.36c     Anomaly    -0.64c. 

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Met Office Hadley         11.1c.       Anomaly       -0.0c      Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      10.67c      Anomaly       0.16c

Netweather                   11.34c      Anomaly       1.0c

Peasedown st John       11.17c     Anomaly      -0.3c.

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Sounds like somethnig else that may or may not be a 'done deal' by October 31st 🙂 But at least we know that the October CET will be finalised by that date, though no doubt some people might wish for an extension into November!

Ha yes!

An even bigger deal for me as it's my Birthday too .

 

Final CET approximation update: Low 10s using the GFS 12z. It has a very mild Saturday having adjusted the Fri-Sat low a long way northward, but is seriously chilly for the time of year thereafter. 

ECM 12z is much cooler for Sat (low tracks as far south as the GFS 06z had it going) but not quite as chilly Wed 30th & markedly milder eve of 31st due to having suddenly decided to make the trough out west of the UK much larger (looks a bit dodgy to me, if I'm honest!). So, probably a similar final CET estimate overall if I had the time to do one (not as easy as with GFS; I don't have raw data for ECM!).

If it does pan out that way, then my extraordinary change of fortune from the first half of the year will continue. Wouldn't it be funny if I managed one of the lowest half-year cumulative errors on record, only to not finish very high up the table due to the shocking first half .

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Ha yes!

An even bigger deal for me as it's my Birthday too .

 

My eldest daughter's, too!

 

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Met Office Hadley        11.0c.       Anomaly       -0.1c.    Provisional to  23rd.

Metcheck                     10.67c      Anomaly       0.16c

Netweather                  11.29c      Anomaly       0.9c

Peasedown St John        11.24c       Anomaly      -0.76c.                      

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8.9C (-0.8C) here, it will go down some more I suspect.

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Met Office Hadley        11.0c.       Anomaly       -0.1c.    Provisional to  23rd.

Metcheck                     10.67c      Anomaly       0.16c

Netweather                  11.29c      Anomaly       0.9c

Peasedown St John        11.24c       Anomaly      -0.76c.                      

I suspect it’s nearer to 10.8c now, given how the Met Office tend to over cook temps before a final month downgrade.  So it’s falling too quickly for my guess!  

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I suspect it’s nearer to 10.8c now, given how the Met Office tend to over cook temps before a final month downgrade.  So it’s falling too quickly for my guess!  

I thought I read something about a possible *up*grade this month though?

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I thought I read something about a possible *up*grade this month though?

It’s possible, although I don’t recall reading that but it’s what I think I’d need for my guess to come close.  

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I am in the very fortunate position that a pretty wide range of outcomes are advantageous to me, simply due to the predictions of my nearest rivals compared to mine. None have gone lower than my 10.85C so anything at or lower than that I will increase my lead to 0.37C.

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