Might be worth starting an October convection thread. Those storms over France are really churning out the strikes. Looks like being an event for E. Sussex, Kent and the E of Essex.

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Might be worth starting an October convection thread. Those storms over France are really churning out the strikes. Looks like being an event for E. Sussex, Kent and the E of Essex.

 If it was January and a solitary snow flurry had been reported within 500 miles of the UK the board would be in meltdown. As it's October and we have a big rain event in progress and the prospect of severe storms later in the day there is no interest at all. That has always amused me TBH.

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 If it was January and a solitary snow flurry had been reported within 500 miles of the UK the board would be in meltdown. As it's October and we have a big rain event in progress and the prospect of severe storms later in the day there is no interest at all. That has always amused me TBH.

I wasn't even aware of the potential storms till I saw a article on local paper website mentioning the amber warning. Would have caught me offguard if I hadn't seen that.

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Sunday 20 Oct - Tuesday 29 Oct

Sunday should see sunny spells and blustery scattered showers, some of which could be heavy. Looking ahead, the unsettled theme is set to continue for a brief period in the northwest with blustery showers and longer spells of rain. There should then be some longer episodes of more settled weather with bright and sunny spells mainly in the central, southern and eastern areas of the UK. The fine conditions should spread into the northwest towards the end of October. Temperatures should remain around average for this time of the year, which means there could be potential for overnight frost or fog on clear nights, but it may feel milder in any sunshine during the day.

Tuesday 29 Oct - Tuesday 12 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. In early November, the west is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with an increasing chance of drier and brighter weather in the east. Temperatures under these conditions could feel mild by day and cool by night. Early signs for mid November indicate a return to frequent bands of rain and strong winds moving from west to east, though there is low confidence at this stage.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thought that longer term update seemed out of step with the short terms one, plus the dates are incorrect.

Has been updated now:

Wednesday 30th Oct - Wednesday 13th Nov

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A change to drier and less breezy weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 16 October – Sunday 20 October

Breezy at times with showers and rain

The recent unsettled theme to the weather looks continuing this week. Wednesday will see outbreaks of rain clearing north-eastwards, leaving much of the UK with drier and brighter weather in the afternoon. Temperatures will be mainly near to the seasonal average. Thursday and Friday then look to be showery and cool as low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. The showers are likely to be most frequent and heavy over southern and western areas of England together with Wales where one or two thunderstorms could be mixed-in. The showers could be heavy enough to cause some local surface flooding. Further north and east across the country, there will also be showers but with some sunshine at times as well.

On Friday, southern counties of England will also have the threat of some strong and gusty south-westerly winds. The showery weather is likely to persist into this weekend. Again, some of the showers could be heavy and thundery, particularly near to southern and western coasts of England and Wales. There should also be sunshine at times. It is likely to be rather cool, perhaps turning chilly in the north on Sunday night.

Monday 21 October – Sunday 27 October

Changeable. Some rain interspersed with drier days

By the early part of next week, much of the British Isles should be drier as low pressure moves away towards southern Europe. However, it will be rather cool and Monday night could be quite cold in places with local frost and fog. Through the middle part of next week, we should experience a change to milder but cloudier and breezier conditions with southerly winds developing. There should also be some rain, albeit with the greatest chance of rain over western areas of the UK. Late in the week, we could well see another change in the weather. An area of high pressure is expected to move in, bringing drier but possibly cooler conditions, perhaps again with local overnight frost.

Monday 28 October – Sunday 10 November

Drier and calmer than recently

The end of October and early part of November are expected to be drier and calmer than in recent weeks. In recent weeks, low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic have dominated our weather. However, we expect high pressure to extend near to the UK at times through this period while low pressure areas are pushed away further south over Europe. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the seasonal average with a lack of strong winds.

However, temperatures look like being often near or even a little above the seasonal average with winds more often from a southerly quarter than the north. Night time mist and fog is likely at times due to the lighter winds. Occasionally, fog could be problematic and be slow to clear during the days. There is a chance, though, that high pressure ends-up much further east than currently expected, which would open the door to wetter and windier weather from the Atlantic. However, if this happens, it would be generally mild.

Further ahead

A change in our weather pattern looks likely through the coming weeks. We will take a look in the next update to see if the somewhat drier and calmer weather could last into mid November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Monday 21 Oct - Wednesday 30 Oct

Monday should see sunny spells with easing winds and isolated showers, some of which could be heavy. Looking ahead, the unsettled theme is set to continue for a brief period in the northwest with blustery showers and longer spells of rain. There should then be some longer episodes of more settled weather with bright and sunny spells mainly in the central, southern and eastern areas of the UK. The fine conditions should spread into the northwest towards the end of October. Temperatures should remain around average for this time of the year, which means there could be potential for overnight frost or fog on clear nights, but it may feel milder in any sunshine during the day.

Thursday 31 Oct - Thursday 14 Nov

The end of October looks to be largely settled and dry for most areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are likely to be confined to the far northwest. Clear conditions at night may allow temperatures to fall a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely. During November, there is a chance of more unsettled conditions with some rain or showers possible at times, however there is high uncertainty this far ahead.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

AccuWeather’s 2019-2020 Europe winter forecast

 

Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe

An active start to the windstorm season is in the forecast for the British Isles, northern Europe and into Scandinavia this winter.  Several storms have already hit the regions this year, including Lorenzo, which was at one point a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.  However, the frequency of the storms will not reach its climax until the calendar turns to 2020. 

“Through early January is going to be the most active,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. Storms that hit in quick succession could pose a heightened risk for wind damage and flooding as people will not have much time to recover. Following an active weather pattern early in the winter, the frequency of windstorms will decrease heading into February and March.

“The second half of winter could be largely on the quiet side in regards to storminess,” Roys said. This may open the door for cold shots to chill the British Isles, but it won't be a repeat of two winters ago when the Beast from the East roared in, according to AccuWeather meteorologists

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-20192020-europe-winter-forecast/601922

Tuesday 22 Oct - Thursday 31 Oct

Tuesday should be mostly sunny, with some coastal showers in the south and outbreaks of rain and strong winds expected in the northwest. Looking ahead, the unsettled theme is set to continue for a brief period in the northwest with blustery showers and longer spells of rain. There should then be some longer episodes of more settled weather with bright and sunny spells mainly in the central, southern and eastern areas of the UK. The fine conditions should spread into the northwest towards the end of October. Temperatures should remain around average for this time of the year, which means there could be potential for overnight frost or fog on clear nights, but it may feel milder in any sunshine during the day.

Friday 1 Nov - Friday 15 Nov

The beginning of November looks to be largely settled and dry for most areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are likely to be confined to the far northwest. Clear conditions at night may allow temperatures to fall a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely. Towards the middle of the month, there is a chance of more unsettled conditions with some rain or showers possible at times, however there is high uncertainty this far ahead.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

AccuWeather’s 2019-2020 Europe winter forecast

 

 

Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe

An active start to the windstorm season is in the forecast for the British Isles, northern Europe and into Scandinavia this winter.  Several storms have already hit the regions this year, including Lorenzo, which was at one point a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.  However, the frequency of the storms will not reach its climax until the calendar turns to 2020. 

“Through early January is going to be the most active,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. Storms that hit in quick succession could pose a heightened risk for wind damage and flooding as people will not have much time to recover. Following an active weather pattern early in the winter, the frequency of windstorms will decrease heading into February and March.

“The second half of winter could be largely on the quiet side in regards to storminess,” Roys said. This may open the door for cold shots to chill the British Isles, but it won't be a repeat of two winters ago when the Beast from the East roared in, according to AccuWeather meteorologists

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-20192020-europe-winter-forecast/601922

Just to remind ourselves:

From 2017/18...

Winter 2017/2018

Winter 2018/2019

 

Winter 2019/2020  -the latest:

When did we last have a cold start to a winter!? I was about to think that the "Beneficial rains" across many parts of central, western and south-western Europe was indicative of southerly tracking lows!??

Anyone notice the trend? - that every year its' always storms or stormy early or anything with 'storms' word in it!? - At least they continue to suggest stormy early- but this is inevitable as the PV is stronger so the greatest chance of blocking is later in winter like January, Feb or even March! So they're stating the obvious! But after such a deluge here since early to mid September really we do needs to dry out here in England at least even if it's for 3-4 days!?? eh?Oops sorry, I should put this in moaning thread!! 

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Over across the pond in N. America!! Look at what's forecast for the USA - stormy off eastern seaboard of the USA??!? This is concern as it may blast up the jet and zonal westerlies and gives the UK and N. W Europe in particular, persistent Cyclogenesis!? Thus, ruining our chances for HLB to develop over northern Latitudes and scraping our chances of getting an easterly!? The NE USA seaboard & Eastern coast off Newfoundland Canada wants to be drier really? so we have some chance??

During last winter 2018/19 we had our easterly ruined many times thanks to the weather in the USA!! - similar to below:

BUT still early days!! - However, this Looks typical of an El Nino type winter weather pattern? IE Drier and mild in Pacific NW and wet in east etc!???

Also, they said that because of the frigid cold temps in the stratosphere like last year and year before etc that the first part of the winter will more likely be mild as the frigid air will be locked up in the polar region early in the winter, due to a strong Polar Vortex this year!

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Wednesday 23 Oct - Friday 1 Nov

A north/south split is expected during the start of this period with unsettled conditions in the north and drier conditions further south. Next weekend becomes increasingly uncertain, but unsettled and perhaps very windy conditions could extend across much of the UK. Through the rest of October unsettled conditions are more likely to dominate but with some periods of fine weather, especially in the south east. There will probably be some marked variations in temperature across the UK throughout. Predominantly below average temperatures in the north and above average temperatures in the south. However, there is a chance that drier, brighter, but colder conditions could extend south across all areas at times from next weekend onwards. This would lead to frosts, with a small chance that more settled conditions could persist.

Saturday 2 Nov - Saturday 16 Nov

There is significant uncertainty through this period. However, the beginning of November may become more settled and dry for many areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are more likely in southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures will probably be a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely, which could persist well into the mornings. Further spells of unsettled, windy conditions with some rain or showers are likely at times, more especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This, from my local 'news' site is the most embarrassing weather article I have ever read.  Please read to the end and cringe...

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-weather-forecast-first-snow-17105570

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Briefly chilly, then turning milder and wetter

_________________________________

Saturday 19 October – Sunday 27 October

Changeable weather. Wettest in the north.

This weekend, much of the UK will have a mixture of bright spells, banks of cloud and a scattering of showers. However, eastern Scotland and North East England are likely to have more prolonged cloud and rain for a while on Saturday. Temperatures will tend to fall through the weekend, with Sunday feeling quite chilly as a brisk northerly wind develops. Scotland and Northern Ireland are then likely to have a cold and clearer night on Sunday with a frost in places. Into the coming week, the weather will be changeable. The early part of the week will be generally drier, brighter and calmer than it has been, thanks to a high pressure ridge toppling south-eastwards across the country. However, central and southern areas could have a rather cold night on Monday with patchy fog.

The middle of the week is likely to see low pressure to the north-west, drawing in milder air from the south, with some wet and windy weather for western and northern parts of the UK. Towards the end of the week, the forecast details become very uncertain. Most likely is for a battleground to set-up between colder air developing over northern areas of the UK and mild air lingering in the south. On the boundary of the colder and milder air, there is the potential for some very wet weather, perhaps even with some snow mixed in on the northern flank of any bands of rain. However, there is much uncertainty currently over where this boundary will be.

Monday 28 October – Sunday 3 November

Potentially cold at first. Near normal rainfall

A potentially rather cold start to the week with high pressure to the north bringing chillier northerly or easterly winds for a time. The extent of the colder weather is uncertain at present but the northern half of the UK has a greater risk than the south. Some night frosts appear likely with some wintry precipitation possible but with the highest risk for the north and over hills. Later in the week, we should see any cold weather receding, allowing temperatures to recover near or a little above average. There is likely to be some rain at times. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near to the seasonal average for most. There is a chance that milder air moves in much more quickly than expected from the south which would bring a much milder week overall to the British Isles.

Monday 4 November – Sunday 17 November

Turning milder and eventually wetter again

For the first half of November, latest indications are for low pressure areas to be often located to the west or northwest of the British Isles while a high pressure area becomes located over central and eastern Europe. This is a mild scenario for much of the UK with winds often expected to be from the south or west. However, the low pressure areas are likely to bring bands of rain at times and the wind is likely to increase too.

Western and northern areas of the UK are favoured to see the most frequent wet and breezy conditions. Rainfall should stay nearer normal for November over central and eastern areas of England. Overall, we see a suppressed risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that low pressure develops more strongly over the UK, bringing wetter and windier than average conditions.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if we can still expect a changeable weather outlook through the coming weeks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Briefly chilly, then turning milder and wetter

_________________________________

Saturday 19 October – Sunday 27 October

Changeable weather. Wettest in the north.

This weekend, much of the UK will have a mixture of bright spells, banks of cloud and a scattering of showers. However, eastern Scotland and North East England are likely to have more prolonged cloud and rain for a while on Saturday. Temperatures will tend to fall through the weekend, with Sunday feeling quite chilly as a brisk northerly wind develops. Scotland and Northern Ireland are then likely to have a cold and clearer night on Sunday with a frost in places. Into the coming week, the weather will be changeable. The early part of the week will be generally drier, brighter and calmer than it has been, thanks to a high pressure ridge toppling south-eastwards across the country. However, central and southern areas could have a rather cold night on Monday with patchy fog.

The middle of the week is likely to see low pressure to the north-west, drawing in milder air from the south, with some wet and windy weather for western and northern parts of the UK. Towards the end of the week, the forecast details become very uncertain. Most likely is for a battleground to set-up between colder air developing over northern areas of the UK and mild air lingering in the south. On the boundary of the colder and milder air, there is the potential for some very wet weather, perhaps even with some snow mixed in on the northern flank of any bands of rain. However, there is much uncertainty currently over where this boundary will be.

Monday 28 October – Sunday 3 November

Potentially cold at first. Near normal rainfall

A potentially rather cold start to the week with high pressure to the north bringing chillier northerly or easterly winds for a time. The extent of the colder weather is uncertain at present but the northern half of the UK has a greater risk than the south. Some night frosts appear likely with some wintry precipitation possible but with the highest risk for the north and over hills. Later in the week, we should see any cold weather receding, allowing temperatures to recover near or a little above average. There is likely to be some rain at times. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near to the seasonal average for most. There is a chance that milder air moves in much more quickly than expected from the south which would bring a much milder week overall to the British Isles.

Monday 4 November – Sunday 17 November

Turning milder and eventually wetter again

For the first half of November, latest indications are for low pressure areas to be often located to the west or northwest of the British Isles while a high pressure area becomes located over central and eastern Europe. This is a mild scenario for much of the UK with winds often expected to be from the south or west. However, the low pressure areas are likely to bring bands of rain at times and the wind is likely to increase too.

Western and northern areas of the UK are favoured to see the most frequent wet and breezy conditions. Rainfall should stay nearer normal for November over central and eastern areas of England. Overall, we see a suppressed risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that low pressure develops more strongly over the UK, bringing wetter and windier than average conditions.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if we can still expect a changeable weather outlook through the coming weeks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

YAWNS*

 

Same old - turning milder - as if it hasn't been mild this autumn ALREADY and turning wetter again!? - as if we have not seen enough rain! boring!! YAWNS**

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Winter 2019/2020  -the latest

Anyone notice the trend? - that every year its' always storms or stormy early or anything with 'storms' word in it!? 

Yes.

This was the last time an Accuweather winter forecast didn't have windstorms nor stormy in it's wording for the British Isles

 

 

Well that was a good forecast......NOT!

 

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Yes.

This was the last time an Accuweather winter forecast didn't have windstorms nor stormy in it's wording for the British Isles

 

 

Well that was a good forecast......NOT!

 

 

Well spotted couldn't find that year 2015/16 but at any rate that year was the year within snow for many esp in the south and December was exceptionally mild and wet as was January too and this was during the super El Nino! So it was far from seasonal with cold spells!! 

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The met office have finally issued the long range update for yesterday still nothing on the mid range

Sunday 3 Nov - Sunday 17 Nov

There is significant uncertainty through this period. However, the beginning of November may become more settled and dry for many areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are more likely in southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures will probably be a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely, which could persist well into the mornings. Further spells of unsettled, windy conditions with some rain or showers are likely at times, more especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

So 10th November it is everyone, they even copied it from AccuWeather ha - saying a bit of snow will fall with a temperature of 9c! I guess we had better get those shovels and spades out and de-icers too!

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1192665/London-weather-forecast-snow-AccuWeather-BBC-UK-radar-today-tomorrow-November?fbclid=IwAR0ymD_yCR2_4GDGtO-9Y1N_VaZKKqgK9v-uDTwrD09IZ8WblO4Ey_Sl-Eo

 

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Friday 25 Oct - Sunday 3 Nov

Rain across the northwest on Friday, possibly snow over Scottish mountains. Elsewhere, largely dry with sunny spells after fog patches clear. Next weekend becomes increasingly uncertain, but unsettled and perhaps very windy conditions could extend across much of the UK. Through the following week it may become drier and more settled again with some sunshine but also overnight fog patches, which could be slow to clear by day. However, Atlantic fronts could still bring further rain and strong winds northwards and eastwards into the UK at times. There will probably be some marked variations in temperature across the UK but more often below average in the north and above average in the south. However, the more settled spells could bring colder conditions more widely at times, accompanied by night frosts.

Monday 4 Nov - Monday 18 Nov

There is significant uncertainty through this period. However, the beginning of November may become more settled and dry for many areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are more likely in southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures will probably be a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely, which could persist well into the mornings. Further spells of unsettled, windy conditions with some rain or showers are likely at times, more especially towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Major change ahead


• Chance of early wintry spell


• Drier weather emerging

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/10/18/john-hammond-month-ahead-ready-for-fireworks/