Comment based on ECM 12z - with commitments of care 24/7 I don;t have time to check all possible models so you will continue to get whatever's the latest on the TWO chart viewer

A little way to go yet but reasonable signs of something drier coming along towards the end of this week and for the beginning of the week after. Before that, unsettled with further spells of rain or showers.

HP positioning will as usual be important for temperature and whether it's a countrywide improvement (if it verifies).

Once LP is out of the way (around next Monday), HP settles in and develops strongly according to GFS, ECM going the same way but not as far ahead. GFS showing sting in the tail as HP retrogresses and shows cold Arctic stuff coming down the N Sea at the very end of the month

FAX also shows a wet weekend

GEFS is odd man out, quite contradictory with less rain this week and more next week, especially in the south. But for snow rampers, Inverness snow rows have a consistent 8 or 9 for the last days of the month, and even a couple of days with one snow row as far south as Birmingham

There is an Cold Arctic Northerly Flow being predicted by the GFS 12z, Greenland and Azores High might create A North Atlantic Two High block with Low Pressure to the East and NNE and to the West ahem.

There are more runs needed.  24th to 27th October 2019- could that cold air cross UK from Arctic and Norwegian Sea?

Polar Low with thundersnow?.

Good to see me posting again.

LP moves out of the way on Monday as forecast for some time. Then a burst of warmth and dry weather for a few days but by the end of the week the HP has retrogressed and GFS 0z is showing a period of winds from north round to east, ECM (yesterday's 12z) less marked but their run doen't go so far forward.

Temperatures thus drop; thereis rather more rain shown on GEFS than I would expect from the synoptics. Inverness into double-digit snow row figures; even London has a '1' in its snow row for the 26th.

Very interesting output at the moment. We could get a cold shot and I think we need to look at the possibility of another very wet spell later next week.

Given the charts we’re seeing and the time of year I’m surprised it’s so quiet here...

The ECM isn’t on board with GFS out to day 7/8 - all jff of course but some spectacular output from the GFS!

I don't usually bother with the charts much at this time of year, since autumn weather is, well autumn weather. What I normally look out for are autumn gales.

However, the GFS output in FI is certainly noteworthy at present - if this were another month down the road, this thread would be getting a massive amount of interest.

Very interesting output at the moment. We could get a cold shot and I think we need to look at the possibility of another very wet spell later next week.

I like the current GFS narrative (as a general, broad set-up). I'm sure detail will change as we get closer, but at the moment it's looking drier in the west at least, with the east taking the brunt of any PPN. Nice to share the wet round a bit I always think!!

 

I don't usually bother with the charts much at this time of year, since autumn weather is, well autumn weather. What I normally look out for are autumn gales.

However, the GFS output in FI is certainly noteworthy at present - if this were another month down the road, this thread would be getting a massive amount of interest.

Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.

You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg

You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg

Yep. We were at Alton Towers and it was bone-chillingly cold for the time of year. It had snowed there the day before and, in the morning as we were queuing to get there, we had a light flurry.

 

Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.

Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.

 

Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.

 I never buy into the "too early" or "too late" line of thinking. In the UK if it snows in October or April my advice is enjoy it! Saving the synoptics for December or January doesn't work sadly.