I have just been watching Gavin P.'s final winter update for this year which has some very interesting analogues, based on this month's estimated CET and the England and Wales rainfall totals for both this month and this autumn.
Of course, I'm sure that there is a very good and valid reason why it is the CET and the England and Wales rainfall totals which are used for these analogues, rather than any sort of UK-wide data (which for a so-called UK-wide site, would be a lot fairer).
In terms of precipitation, I do agree that both this month and this autumn have been substantially wetter than average across England and Wales, but it has actually been a completely different story here in Scotland which is never (or hardly ever) emphasised in Gavin P.'s videos (although that takes nothing away from the excellent work which he does in that regard).
As for this autumn, it has been wetter than average here in line with the rest of the UK and that is true for the south of Scotland in general. However, this autumn hasn't actually been as wet here as what it has been down south and central and northern parts of Scotland have actually had a drier than average during this autumn. This means that Scotland as a whole, has generally had a drier than average autumn overall rather than a wetter than average one.
For this month alone, that pattern is virtually the same except that our rainfall total for this month doesn't even look as though as though it is going to be much above average, and might not even get above average at all.
Now, let's imagine that there was a Scottish YouTuber who did the same sort of stuff as Gavin P., and that he had someone similar to James Ackrill on board to help him with his analogues. Let's also imagine that this Scottish YouTuber used only Scottish data, rather than the CET and England and Wales rainfall data in order to produce his analogues. If that was the case, I'm sure that the picture of this upcoming winter which would be provided by that, would then be completely different from what we have seen from Gavin P. in his updates.
To me, it would therefore be interesting to see how different those projections of the coming winter actually were as a result, and what these projections actually looked like.
Edited by user
24 November 2019 13:28:29
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.